Serena is good, but can she walk on water ?
I am leaving the games alone today and just want to discuss the outright market.
Serena Williams is the greatest women's player ever IMO, but she has plenty of competition here, has won "just" 4 of the last 10 grand slam events she has played and her odds on (sub 2.0) quotes are just ridiculous and I do not care if she wins without dropping a set, she offers terrible value.
Serena has won 33% of the slams she has played in the last decade, which is fantastic, but she has not made it past the quarter finals in 55% and given those two stats should she be a circa 60%+ chance to win here and even if the answer is yes, does that offer any value ? The answer for me is a resounding no and no.
Some of us opposed her at Wimbledon last year (link) and won a LOT of money, many of you took that 25-1, or the 12-1 + for Lisicki to beat her in the match and that alone proved that she is vunerable to someone at, or close to the top of her game.Williams has some very dangerous players in her quarter Stosur, Pironkova, Ivanovic, Bouchard (two time Junior semi finalist here) etc. She would then most likely meet Li Na in the semis and still have to face Azarenka/Radwanska/Sharapova in the final. Win or lose, she is a poor price.
It should not surprise long term readers that I am keen on Victoria Azarenka and Li Na.
Azarenka has won the last two years, beating Li Na in three close sets last year and wiping the floor with Sharapova here in 2012. Seeking a hat-trick of titles in Melbourne and expecting to seriously compete in every grand slam event nowadays, she offers huge value IMO. She has Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska on her side of the draw, but has beaten the Russian superstar in their last six meetings on hardcourts, including that 0 & 3 beating here and has won 11 of her last 12 with Agie, whom she matches up perfectly with. The Belarusian has made the last four hard court slam finals and ahead of the last in New York, where she met Serena on "home turf" I wrote ....
The US player has yet to drop a set and has won eight of her 12 sets by either 6-0 or 6-1 which is incredible, regardless of opponent and she appears to crave every point at present as though it was oxygen. However, I was hugely disappointed by Li Na in the semi final, she claimed to have been very nervous afterwards, but I am unsure why that was the case, what I do know is that despite winning 0 & 3, Williams hit more unforced errors than winners and Li Na had chances to take charge in almost every game, at least until Serena broke back in the second set. Call me crazy, I know this sounds crazy, but for me it was Williams who was a little nervous, she does suffer with nerves on occasion ( despite what many believe and her on court persona, Serena is not a confident "individual" at all, note I used the term individual and not "player") and you will get opportunities against her if you can just hang in there long enough, unfortunately, so few players are capable of that, Azarenka clearly is. Also, in those last three hard court h2h meetings all of which went the distance, VA twice lost the first heavily (6-2 both times), so is not going to suddenly panic, if she is blown away in the opener. Remember also that 2011 meeting, 6-1 in the first , but it went to a close tie break in the second set.Vika is the better defender of the two and returns as well as anyone, which will always give her a chance, she has served pretty poorly by her own standards this last week, but there are plenty of reasons to feel she will show her best today. I could list the things in Serena's favour, but that would take all morning and it would only be telling you what you already know. I expect this to be a long match and am betting Azarenka to take a set, officially, I will put it up as a single unit bet, but will be trying to bet more personally. 1 unit Victoria Azarenk +1.5 sets 2.20 +... there is 2.31 Pinnacle Sports..... you can also get 2.20 + by taking the best price for Vika to win and likewise for Serna to win 2-1 in sets.
Four grand slam hardcourt finals in a row, two of whivh she has won, two she lost in long three sets to Serena, who did not even make the semis in the other two,Williams is also unlikely to improve any more at 32yo, which is eight years older than her rival, yet we have Serena at 1.6 and Azarenka @ 6.0 , win or lose, I know which odds I like best.
Li Na has started the year near the top of her game, she is 6-0 for the season having won in Shenzhen, there was not much to beat there, but it was a confidence boost and proved she is fit and well. The Chinese superstar and she is a massive stain her homeland, really should have an Australian Open title to go with her win at Roland Garros by now and has gone close several times in recent years. In 2010 she lost 7-6 7-6 to Serena in the semis, lost to Kim Clijsters a player she always struggled to beat, in the final the next year and again late in the tornament in 2012 and lost in three close sets to Azarenka last year. If she meets Serena, I give her a good chance for the upset and again, see no reason for her to be so big in the betting.
She has to exorcise the demons from that capitulation in New York, but she is the type who will relish the oppotunity to do so, Li Na took the US player close in Istanbul in their only meeting since, with 15 BP's on a surface which doesn't suit her so well. We have to include her in our portfolio.
0.75 units Li Na to win outright 11.0-15.0 general quote.
1.25 units each way (total staked 2.5 units) Victoria Azarenka 5.0-6.0 general quote 1/2 odds 1.2.......or 1/3rd 1.2 at a pinch !
This means that if you bet Azarenka ew @ 6.0 , you get the win part at 6.0 (obviously), the place part (to reach the final) @ 3.50 which offers really good value.
Notes written and sent to subscribers on January 14th
Good Luck.
