Brazil : Serie A: Atletico Mineiro- Chapecoense
Atletico did us a favour last Sunday easing past Sao Paulo by the minimum margin....
We have not discussed Sao Paulo a lot this season, but ahead of their trip to Coritiba last month I wrote ....The visitors have a very talented squad and will be buoyed by closing the gap on the leaders, but travel without Kaka (8-1-1 when he plays) and versatile defender Paulo Miranda ( conceded two goals + in three of the last four away starts he has missed) and although striker Luis Fabiano returns , he has been out since late May and will probably only be up to a cameo role. They will be motivated to keep the pressure on Cruzeiro, but this looks a difficult task now that the hosts are close to full strength and fighting for suvival. The visitors road games have averaged a league high 3.2 goals per game and it is hard to see them winnning this without needing to score at least twice. I am torn between the hosts and goals, but in terms of odds offered, much prefer the latter. They lost that 3-1 and actually collected just a single point, conceding 11 goals from four starts, before stopping the rot with consecutive 1-0 wins in their last two outings. They are without Kaka again today, he, along with Souza, Ademilson and Alvaro pereira are on international duty, Toloi and Rodrigo Caio are injured,Paulo Miranda and Paulo Henrique Ganso suspended. That means they are without 4-5 starters, including three midfielders and a left back and three players who played largely on that flank in their last really impressive performance, a 2-0 home defeat of champions Cruzeiro. PHG is hugely influential and they are without a win in 9 when he plays 30 minutes or less.
Atletico can move back into a Copa Libertadores place with a win and within two points of SP who are currently in second spot. They are without strikers Diego Tardelli and Guilherme today , but have options upfront and it is midfield when they should win this game and boss the injury hit visitors.
They followed that up with a 4-1 Copa do Brasil thumping of Corinthians, they went with eight of the 11 starters from the SP game, plus Douglas Santos, Diego Tardelli and Guilherme who all returned to action and it was a comprehensive victory, effectively over after 75 minutes at which time, top scorer Tardelli was wrapped up in cotton wool and saved for today. It is hard to reason why ANG do not score more goals, they have an abundance of attacking options and they have brought them out in force today, naming seven strikers in the 22 man squad. They can not only cement their Copa Libertadores spot with a win, but could move into second with a two goal victory and with leaders Cruzeiro perhaps looking a little vulnerable for the first time in two seasons, that could see them in position for a late charge. If they look at their remaining fixtures, they might fancy their chances, with their last ten starts coming against teams with an average league placing of 13.3, meeting just one of the current top 9
Chapecoense have surprised everyone this year, but now have a four point advantage over the drop zone and this would be a typical came for their focus to drop, as they play two home games in the next eight days and will not want to give everything tonight and leave themselves little in the "tank" for the vastly more win-able fixtures. Five of their last seven road defeats have been by two or more goals and that is how I see this playing out, nothing wrong with taking the -1 line, but I almost always prefer giving up the bigger handicap line and getting higher odds.
1.5 units Atletico Mineiro -1.25 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Atletico: Victor, Uilson, Alex Silva, Marcos Rocha, Douglas Santos, Emerson Conceição, Edcarlos, Jemerson, Tiago, Eduardo, Pierre, Josué, Dátolo, Dodô, Maicosuel, Guilherme, Luan, André, Carlos, Marion, Diego Tardelli, Cesinha.
This looks a good match up for AMG in terms of when these two score/concede, Chap are a (joint) league worst 1-6 ( goals scored/conceded) through the opening 15 minutes of road games ( league worst -7 through 30 minutes), the hosts are a league high +9 goals (11-2) at home through the final 30 minutes, so hard to see the visitors riding out both vulnerable periods.
Good luck !
