Brazil : Serie A betting preview: Criciuma-Corinthians
Sep 07, 2014
Brazil : Serie A: Criciuma-Corinthians
Last month I previewed Corinthians ahead of their trip to Coritiba.....
Corinthians are unbeaten in eight starts in all competitions, up to second in the table and can close the gap on leaders Cruzeiro , who drew last night, to just three points with a win. They have a good record againt Coritiba, have won the last four meetings, including two visits to Curitiba and arrive in very good shape and with new signing Nicolas Lodeiro joining the squad for the first time, after resting since the World Cup.
Defensively, Corinthians are watertight, just 28 goals conceded in their last 50 starts, but it is at the other end of the pitch that they struggle, just 27 goals all last season, which was 1.315 per game less than champions Cruzeiro and that number had to close if they were to become competitive this season and it has. They have already scored 15 goals this season through 12 starts, which is more than they managed over the final 24 games of 2013. They have already beaten Cruzeiro and International at home, recently, but those results will count for little, if they go back into their shell on the road and do not push for maximum points against the "lesser" teams. Coritiba have been underperforning for 18 months and despite ending Gremio's unbeaten home run last week, they remain in the drop zone and needed wins on the final two rounds of last season to survive and seemed to need that extra motivation to raise their game. It is true that they play better against the stronger teams, but equally true that we rarely see anything much from them two weeks running and Corinthians do appear to have their number.
I watched the meeting between the two here towards the end of last season, it was far more important to the hosts as they were battling relegation, Corinthians were firmly stuck in mid table. However, you could never have worked that out from the action, it was all one way traffic and the visitors could have scored 3-4 goals (they won 1-0). Coritiba created a couple of half chances late after falling behind, but had been restricted to two long range efforts and they once beat the offside trap of the high Corinthians back line, until then. It also looked and sounded like a Corinthians home game, with a lot of visiting supporters in the stadium and it is hard to see that being any different tonight, in a far more important game.
Just one home second half goal for Coritiba this season and that is when I expect the visitors to take charge of this, just as they have on their last two visits, with all three goals coming after the break.
They drew that 0-0 and have since been a bit of a mixed bag going 2-2-1 through five starts which included putting five past Goias and winning on the road at Santos, but dropping points at home to Bahia and Fluminense. I felt the big win over Goias was going to really signal the arrival of a "new" more attack minded Corinthians, but goals are still proving hard to come by. However, they do get top scorer Paolo Guerrero back from suspension today and will be eyeing up all three points and to stay in the hunt for the Copa places with the two teams immediately above them in the table, both having very win-able home fixtures. Elias and Gil are both away on international duty, but they have no other iisues and have spoken openly this week about still having title ambitions this season, despite Cruzeiro now holding an eight point lead at the top of the table and ten over Corinthians, they can ill afford to drop points in these type of fixtures if they are serious about putting pressure on the leader and with three of their next four at home after tonight and a very nice run of fixtures over the next six weeks, they could definitely close the gap if they could go on a run. They have a good record against Criciuma and did the double over them last season without conceding. Corinthians are suited to playing on the road, they are 3-4-1 away from home this season and in their sole defeat, to very strong home side Gremio, won the corner count 8-2 and attempts on target 9-2. The hosts have drawn here with Inter and Cruz (0-0 both), but on another night could have conceded four in the latter and they have only scored twice in six home starts against teams currently in the top four. It is goals which are a problem for them and they have not scored a league goal in closing in on 500 minutes of football. Away win.
1.5 units Corinthians -0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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