Champions League betting preview: AC Milan v Atletico Madrid
Feb 19, 2014
We last discussed Milan, with special focus on new coach Clarence Seedorf at the end of last month.
"Hosts are without Riccardo Montolivo (14-2-2 Serie A), but have named every other available player in a large squad for today, in what will be Clarence Seedorf's second match in charge. They eased past Verona with a late penalty on his debut at the weekend, build up play was good enough, but they lacked a cutting edge. However, Seedorf is a very upbeat character and has completely changed the mood at the club over the last week, after his first training session he said : "I have a huge desire to transmit enthusiasm and joy, which are the fundamental elements in doing this work to the best of your ability, we are all lucky to be able to do this job which is almost like a hobby."
He opened up the first sessions to the public, which helped get some of the more sceptical supporters on his side and has made his intention, which is to play attacking football and to his teams strength, perfectly clear. He is playing 4-2-3-1 and started with Mario Balotelli, Kaká, Robinho and Keisuke Honda all on the pitch , he seems likely to do the same tonight and after another 2-3 days training with Seedorf at the helm, they should know more about what the coach expects.Senior players have all given him praise and their full support, Balotelli has been given more license to roam and we might see the best of him over the next month.
Serie A is all but over for Milan, catching Inter, whom they currently trail by seven points will doubtless be a target, but the focus otherwise will be the Champions League and Coppa Italia, so a big match this evening.
Udinese are not in good shape and they have conceded 15 goals in seven starts, three in four, including their last two starts, on the road to Sampdoria and home to Lazio . In the latter, they led twice and conceded the last two decisive goals when they opponents were down to ten men and that was hugely disappointing. An early goal could easily see this develop into a shootout, with two attacking teams and a history of goals in this fixture (last 10 in Milan averaged 4.2 ).
1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket."That ended 1-2 and with it any real interest in this season apart from the Champions League, it is all and only about this difficult two legged tie and it means everything to the club and coach. The competition was very kind to Seedorf as a player and he was the first in history to win it four times with three different clubs, twice with Milan, so it has a special place in his heart.
Since losing to Udinese, Milan are 2-1-1 in the league, with the loss coming at highflying Napoli, but that is kind of irrelevant ,it is all about 90 minutes tonight and giving themselves a result to take to Madrid on March 11th. A win , especially with a clean sheet would be great, but I suspect, despite Seedorf offensive minded philosophy that it is the clean sheet which will be paramount.
President Silvio Berlusconi attended training yesterday, just to make sure everyone knew the importance of the game, but that was hardly necessary. The San Siro is always a special place on big European nights and it is not a place you just come and get a result at, Barcelona and Ajax ( with Milan playing most of the game with 10 men) had to settle for a point here in the group stages (Celtic were defeated) and the home side are definitely more together as a group now.They can also forget about their upcoming league game, it is all and only about the Champions League.
Seedorf said yesterday:"Our growth is gradual. This is a unique and special match. There are other factors that influence the game. I’m happy with our week’s work. The added value of this side is the team spirit and the bond between the different components that make up the team. We’re going through a difficult time and these are the kind of matches to use the enthusiasm that we have to make things better and strengthen the group. My players will give me the responses that I expect. My Milan? Big words. We have a group that is working well. I’m trying to get everyone in the best condition possible to express themselves out on the pitch. The league table doesn’t reflect the value of the squad."
His Atletico counterpart Diego Simeone doesn't have quite the same luxury and is also involved in a three way battle for the La Liga title, with two away games and a home match with neighbours Real, where defeat could be very costly, inbetween the two legs. Fixtures which are distracting.
We have spoken about the Atletico schedule and Simeone's dogmatic approach and refusal to back down, many, many times this season. Most recently last week ahead of the visit from their cross town rival in the Copa del Rey....
Atletico are looking to get back on track after losing the reverse fixture 3-0 last week and their lead at the top of the table over the weekend with a shock defeat at Almeria. They must do so without goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois (only league game he has missed in 16 months was the 2-0 defeat at Almeria on Saturday), midfielder Tiago ( 15-2-1 La Liga), striker David Villa (22-11-4), left back Filipe Luís Kasmirski (19-0-4) and much admired front man Diego Costa (22-20-4........Atletico have won 15/15 when he scores, just 3/8 without him) and obviously that will be tough.
I have rattled on and on about Atletico coach Diego Simeone's refusal to rest players, I said many times that it would come at a cost and now it has. Ahead of their Copa quarter final first leg with Athletic Bilbao, I wrote ....
I spoke about Atletico's involvement in this competition ahead of their trip to Valencia in the last round (link). They drew that match 1-1 , but progressed, albeit with a large slice of good fortune, over the two legs and now face two more tough games against highflying Athletic and I feel that Diego Simeone's absolute refusal to take even one half step backwards in any game, or to prioritise matches, is going to come at a very high cost, arguably, it already has, with points dropped in recent league games and cross town rivals Real, now well and truly back in the title race. I admire Simeone, but I think this approach, given his squad size and the bigger prizes on offer, has been,if not stupid, then naive.
Same old, same old this evening, with Simeone naming his strongest possible 18 for this game. I think this is their 32nd game of the season and many star names have only missed 2-3 of those and have had other (international) commitments and these are all big games, with the pressure that brings. Like PSG last night, this will come at a cost, somewhere down the line and the Parisians are at least rotating a little.
You just cannot fight on three fronts with a smallish squad and not rotate, it is and was crazy. This match is very difficult for the home side to prepare for, at 0-3 they have no chance to progress, their weekend game is absolutely vital, but their cannot just give up, neither can they afford to collect any further injuries.
They lost that 2-0, but did beat a struggling and poor travelling Valladolid at home over last weekend. But they are clearly not in the type of form they were a month ago and there is reason to believe the rigors of a very tough season are catching up with them.
Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti has spoken to and helped Seedorf with as much advice about Atletico as possible and that will be as valuable from a mind games point of view, as on the pitch. Like an end of season "must win" fixture, I do not think that team news is overly important tonight, passion, heart and desire will be the deciding factors, both teams have it, but it is season on the line time for Milan and I expect a big performance.
Simeone as a former Inter player ,is sure to get an especially warm welcome from home fans !
1.25 units AC Milan +0.25 ball 2.07 Asian line/Ibramarket.
Milan: Abbiati, Amelia, Coppola, Abate, Bonera, Constant, De Sciglio, Mexes, Rami, Zaccardo, De Jong, Emanuelson, Essien, Kakà, Poli, Balotelli, Pazzini, Petagna , Taarabt .
Good Luck.
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