Derby County- Nottingham Forest
County are one of "our" three championship teams and they will go top of the table for a couple of hours at least with a point, but they will really be fired up for all three against their biggest rival, who have not won in nine starts and who have lost their last four, conceding nine goals and scoring only once, which came in a match where they were already three down !
Ahead of their New Year win over Leeds United I wrote .....
Today's two Championship games are reverse fixtures of games played on November 29th and I am looking for the teams who lost the earlier meeting to both gain a little revenge today. United imposed themselves physically early in the first game, kept things tight and then ran out fairly comfortable winners.County like to play on the break on the road and are ideally suited to doing so, but United sat deep and never really gave them the chance to do so, but aside from getting their tactics right, they were also fortunate to meet a Derby side who had a bad day at the office and were a long way off their best. I suspect we will see a far more committed performance from Derby this evening and they are looking for a seventh straight home win in this fixture, having scored two or more goals in five of the last six meetings, three points will take County at least up to third and into second place if Ipswich fail to win.
The hosts are coming off a fine 4-0 road win at inform Birmingham City on Boxing Day, who franked the form with a 3-1 away win of their own at Nottingham Forest on Sunday. The Rams were back to their fluent best in that game and the break between games clearly helped them, after playing three very tough fixtures inside seven days previously. City boss Gary Rowett is very honest with his appraisal of opponents and said : "I actually thought Derby were the most clinical and threatening top 8 side that we have played,they showed their quality and class, their wide players were a constant threat throughout the game."
I value his opinion, not least because it tallies with my own !
Ahead of their 5-0 home demolition of Wolverhampton Wanderers last month I spoke about how impressive County had been at Brentford .......
I have not seen much of Wanderers this season, but did see them live towards the end of last and they were heavily reliant on 3-4 players.... Henry/Edwards/Sako/Dicko. Dave Edwards picked up an injury early in the midweek defeat to Ipswich Town and will be out for several weeks, Nouha Dicko is already missing and hugely important , since signing permanently in the January window, Wolves are 22-7-3 when he plays, they are without a win in three this season without him, conceded five in two road games and a 0-0 home draw with Birmingham, who had just lost 8-0 at home !
I discussed the home side briefly in midweek .....I saw Derby County on Saturday and for 35 minutes they were far and away the best team who have played at Griffim Park this season. They were 1-0 up at the time and it could have been more, perhaps should have been and 0-3 at the time would not have been totally unjust. However, Brentford ended the first half on the front foot, scored early in the second and were the only team who looked like winning from that point on.
County made a couple of odd decisions in terms of their line up, which looked like working out early on, with Will Hughes ( in favour of an inferior player) and Jordon Ibe both left on the bench for an hour. Ibe is unbelievably quick, the Bees have a player on the right, Moses Odubajo, who is very pacy and he looked totally stunned when Ibe gave him a start and a beating, as I doubt it has happened before. They had also done a lot of homework on Brentford in terms of tactics and how the Bees play, which was spot on and caused all the early problems. What I am trying to say is that I do not feel there is too much wrong with Derby, if there are two better teams in the Championship, I would be stunned and whilst they have blown leads in losing their last two, I am sure they will be back on track soon and if odds had been a little better, I would probably have backed them this evening
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They beat in form Huddersfield Town 3-2 ( Hughes and Ibe both played, with the latter scoring the opener) on Tuesday to get back on track, the scoreline was a little more comfortable than it might suggest, with Town scoring their second in injury time and I think this is a good opportunity for the Rams to follow up. All my thoughts on how good I thought they are can be read in the pre season notes and I saw nothing last week to change that, I think it is a sign of how far they have come under Steve McClaren that the supporters were so critical after the loss to the mighty Bees, as they compare very favourably to everyone, apart perhaps from Middlesbrough, that I have seen. Team news looks key.
I feel that County who are already very strong will strengthen in the "window", they also look much better to my eyes when Will Hughes plays and he looks to be starting to run into the kind of form we saw from him last season, I cannot think of a better "impact" player in the Championship than Jordan Ibe ( see both above) who has the pace to destroy tiring teams and with boss Steven McClaren having increased options now with most of his talented squad available, I expect a very strong 2015 from them and on a going day, no team at this level can live with them. My own view on United is that they are limited , a little toothless upfront and one dimensional, with no real plan B, they need things to go their way early and if they concede first, as I expect them to tonight, it is very hard for them to change the course of the game against the stronger teams. County have scored three or more goals in five of their last seven home wins in the Championship and if they are to take all three points, I suspect it will be with a degree of comfort, so have no issue with giving up the bigger handicap line.
They won that 2-0 and have now won four straight without conceding, Jordan Ibe has been recalled by Liverpool but Steve McClaren (pictured ) has been busy in the transfer window and has again upgraded his squad, The coach also showed tremendous loyalty to the club by ruling himself out of the Newcastle United job and he will get a very warm welcome from a sell out home crowd today.
In September I wrote this about the visitors ......
Forest are without Andy Reid and Chris Cohen in midfield and Matty Fryatt upfront. Cohen and especially Reid are the glue that holds Forest together and the pair create so much of what they do offensively, but also have defensive work to do which often goes overlooked. Reid is an extremely gifted footballer, who has not always been given his due as he has often "carried a bit of timber". Anyway, they will and do miss Cohen, but when Reid is also sidelined it massively compounds the issue, the pair have missed 15 games in the last seven months, through which they are 3-3-9 and conceded 34 goals at an average of 2.27 per game. Without Fryatt the focus of almost everything they do offensively is with Britt Assombalonga and having spent £5.5-£8m on him and already seen an eight goal return, why not (?), but the supply will be lessened without the duo in midfield and the one dimensional approach, much easier to deal with. I will take the visitors plus the handicap start.
At that time Nottingham Forest were second in the Championship and unbeaten, neither Reid nor Cohen have played since and through that sequence Forest are 2-6-8, conceding an extra goal per game .
Reid is close to a return, but will again miss out this week, Fryatt is injured, so too is Michael Mancienne and Britt Assombalonga faces a late test, not a good time to be a Forest supporter or manager !
The visitors lost here 5-0 in another lunchtime kick off in March and the 5-0 County defeat of Wolverhampton Wanderers another midland rival ( see above) was also an early start and the Rams obviously like to play with a hungry stomach ! It is very hard for me to see anything but a long day at the office for the visitors.... 1.5 units Derby County -0.75 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
If you want an alternative , or "in play" option, County led 3-0 at half time in both of those 5-0 wins and they have scored 23 of 47 goals before the break and are 13-1 (goals scored-conceded) at home in the first half, Forest are 1-8 through the opening 30 mins on the road. Derby-Derby HT/FT @ 2.62 + makes some appeal and a bet I would be really keen on if it were freely available is Derby over 1.5 goals in the first half at circa 5.0, but I will not put either in blue type, the latter is hard to find and the former we do not really need.
Good Luck.
