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Championship: Millwall - Middlesbrough
Just one win in 14 starts for the Lions and they had terrible trouble in their last home game with the slick passing of the Brentford players who move the ball very quick and Boro are not dissimilar box to box.
You know my thoughts on Boro and with a little luck, I think they could, perhaps should, have another 6-8 points in the bag, we have left them alone for several weeks, last discussing them early last month and ahead of a big win over Norwich City I wrote .....
These are two of the three strongest teams I have seen in the Championship this season, but on reflection, I feel that I probably saw City at their very best and they do probably not have the strength in depth of one or two other contenders and their midfield has looked a little lightweight recently. Most of you know how highly I rate Boro and they are the one team with cover and in some cases with three players for every positions. They kind of have six-eight largely interchangeable players offensively for 2-3 spots and that,and the rotation policy of Aitor Karanka is going to serve them incredibly well as the season wears on. I touched upon that on Saturday for their visit to Rotherham United .....
My personal jury is still out on United, I admit that I have not seen a lot of them, but what I have seen has not been good and they looked very poor defensively against Brentford/Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham, they did avoid defeat in two of those, quite how they beat Wolves even Sherlock Holmes would be unable to work out and they could/should have been three down at the break, but found a way to win 1-0. My feeling is that they have overachieved a little and are fortunate to have 17 points on board. They are hard working and fairly well organised, but this is a match teams with promotion aspirations and that is Boro, simply have to be looking for maximum points and there is a big gulf in class between the two squads. That is highlighted by Richie Smallwood, who was allowed to leave Boro, as he would not have even made the bench most games, becoming a regular since joining the Millers.
Boro were our main outright Championship selection and those pre season and early campaign update notes are reproduced at the foot of the email. They are well in contention and have looked very good at times, one or two players have yet to make a major contribution and this is a squad which will surely continue to evolve and get stronger, almost week by week. Captain Grant Leadbitter has had a fantastic early season, but had to sit out last week with suspension, they were all over a good Watford team there for 45 minutes in his absence, but lost their way afterwards and allowed the Hornets to come away with a share of the points. Watford supporters at the match seemed to feel that Boro were the best team they had faced this season and all that is missing is a little more luck in front of goal. Boss Aitor Karanka has had a heavy rotation policy all season with 46 games in mind and feels his squad will be fresh when others are wilting later in the campaign and the supporters are certainly buying into all this and will form possibly 25% of the crowd tomorrow, with all 2,600 away tickets sold in a sub 12,000 attendance. I expect them to go home happy.
I spoke to one or two of you a month or so ago about the "hole" I had dug myself , or rather found myself in with Boro, but sometimes errors/mistakes can work in your favour, suffice to say I need Boro to finish top 6 at least, but in truth, I cannot see how they cannot, the squad is simply too strong. That is not to say that they have to win tonight, they have struggled a little more at home on occasion and City are a good team, but the hosts should have been 2-3 up against a Watford side whom everyone are "bigging up", here last time out and with normal luck in front of goal, they look good enough to beat anyone at this level and I cannot let odds like this pass, as I know they will be on offer infrequently this season.
They won that 4-0 , but have drawn their three starts since, although they dominated large periods of all three. The visitors have performed well on the road against other bottom 7 teams ( Millwall are currently 20th) , taking 13 points from five starts, they won 2-0 here last December, are twice the team now and at the time, Millwall were unbeaten in seven at home. Albert Adomah (pictured) is one of perhaps only 2-3 players from that game who will be in the squad today, he likes it at the New Den with a goal and two assists on his last three visits and should get plenty of joy out wide. Big boost for the squad with Grant Leadbitter signing a lengthy contract extension this week and the club are very focused on three points today, with a visit from title favourites and leaders Derby County next week, followed by a trip to second placed Ipswich Town. "Easiest" points on offer for some time and I expect Boro to take them.
1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.25 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
Elsewhere and briefly .....
Tough week for Sunderland, they have played Chelsea and Manchester City already in the last 7 days, spent most of it chasing the ball and now go to Anfield, they could tire .
Charlton have collected 31 points before the break, but have won just 3 second half's and have failed to win 4 of the 8 games in which they have led at half time , Forest are 4th in the second half table with 31 points .
Blackburn Rovers are slow starters collecting a low 18 points before the break, 32 after, they have posted two wins and two draws from seven matches in which they have trailed at half time, Wednesday have won just one road SH.
Good Luck.
Middlesbrough Update ( written September 5th)
Boro have been a little disappointing on the pitch, just six points on board, but it should really be 12 and I have taken a positive slant on this, as it has enabled me to be able to bet a little more at the advised 21.0 and 3.75 which is still on offer.
Off the pitch, they have played like champions and last week added Patrick Bamford, Belgium international striker Jelle Vossen, Chelsea goalkeeper Jamal Blackman and winger Yanic Wildschut, 22 a Netherlands Under-21international. The week before Ryan Fredricks joined from Tottenham, all the other signings have been discussed many times, they are a work in progress, but Aitor Karanka got every single player he targeted and was backed to the hilt by owner Steve Gibson and they are 100% set on promotion. If they had 12 points in the bag and made these signings, people would be falling over themselves to back them at 9.0. Six points is nothing over 41 games and I would prefer the bigger odds and feel they still offer very good value.
Championship Outright: (written July 29th)
For my main outright bet I am going to be a little more adventurous and suggest Middlesbrough.
They have been on my radar for some time and I think now is the right time to push the button. Last season they finished 12th, eight points adrift of a playoff spot and I expect them to finish a lot closer this time round. Aitor Karanka replaced Tony Mowbray as coach in mid November and it was always going to take time for him to get his ideas across and a full pre season working with the squad, before we would see the benefit of his vast experience at the top Spanish clubs. He was previously assistant manager at Real Madrid under Jose Mourinho, no one who has held that role before, has come out a worse coach and Karanka has done his new club no harm in steadfastly defending Mourinho's reign at Madrid and openly speaking out in favour of his former boss. This loyalty has already been rewarded and I understand that Karanka has pretty much first option on any Chelsea youngsters going out on loan and central defender Kenneth Omeruo who was on loan at Boro last season, has rejoined on a one year deal from the Blues, after impressing with his four starts for Nigeria at the World Cup and I understand one or two more might make the move up from London.
Karanka has also signed left back James Husband from Doncaster Rovers and also used his contacts in Spain to snap up keeper Tomas Mejias from Real Madrid and prolific striker Kike from Murcia for a big fee (circa £3m+). Lee Tomlin and Albert Adomah are two very gifted players, who long term readers will know I rate quite highly , they joined Boro last season and both should be even more productive this time round.Likewise, centre back Daniel Ayala , who like Tomlin, joined in the last transfer window. It is amazing that George Friend has never been picked up by a top flight club and he is a very classy left back and with Husband as cover, they are very well looked after in this key position.
Adan Reach is just 20 and an England U20 international of almost limitless potential and he and Friend were picked out by a good judge I know, who saw Boro last week in pre season, as "certain to play in the top flight". Reach is one of several who have come up from the well respected Academy at Boro which has produced players like Adam Johnson and Stewart Downing in recent years.
Genk striker Jelle Vossen has long been touted as on the move to Boro and it looks like that deal might still be possible and is being much discussed today, although funds are tight at the club, they will find the money for the right player and are keen to really make a big push this season. I understand that two more deals will "definitely" be done before the season starts, including another Chelsea player and this is starting to look like a squad with plenty of potential.
Like the coach, there are a number of players who should improve in the second season and Kike could really be the 20 goal striker they have been looking for and he could make the same sort of impact as Michu in his first season at Swansea. All the Boro supporters who went to Rochdale last week have been raving over him and already believe he is the real deal, you can see a montage of some of his goals on this
youtube (Preview) clip.
Not much improvement needed to make a top six push and they could be much better than that.
1.75 units Middlesbrough to win outright 17.0-21.0 general quote .
1.75 units Middlesbrough to finish top 6 @ 3.50-3.75 general quote.
