I looked at six matches today, full previews of four and a stats look at two others, the two AFC Champions League games are reproduced below as a sample of what the
clubgowi service provides on a daily basis, along with the "stats" . The two other full previews, which gave selections at odds of 2.625 and 2.28, are only available to subscribers. Read excerpts from a third party review of the newsletter service
on this link.
Kawasaki was a "push" winning 2-1, although they had some 25-26 attempts on goal and Guizhou won 3-1.
AFC Champions League: Kawasaki Frontale - Western Sydney Wanderers
A large focus of our AFC previews this group stage, has been around the gruelling schedule some of the J-League teams have faced, most notably with the away legs in Australia, where teams were facing round trips of 25 hours+ in between early season domestic games seven days apart and before players had found their full fitness levels.
In a 11 day period last month Kawasaki played away to two time J-League champions Sanfreece Hiroshima, flew to Korea to play league leaders Ulsan, hosted a shootout with Omiya Ardija and then flew to Sydney and back .
That is tiring even to write, let alone endure. Since returning home, Frontale have found their legs, won twice with a 5-0 goal difference and having played their league match on Friday, been given the best possible opportunity to be at their peak for this game.
WSW are now the team at a disadvantage, they played a vital away game with Central Coast Mariners on Saturday, which they lost to an injury time winner and had to fly immediately to Tokyo for this fixture.They looked to run out of steam in the second period against CCM and boss Tony Popovic said he would have to figure out why his team experienced such a severe decline in performance.
“The hard part for us is to understand the big difference between the first half and the second half,'' the coach said. ''We really dropped off. In the end, we would have been pleased with a point but it wasn’t to be. In the second half, you could pull out 10 different things that just wasn’t the usual that we do.
“We got very stretched as a team. It seemed that with just one pass, they could get through quite easily, which is not really us. Our whole game, as a collective, in the second half wasn’t good enough to win the game.”
There is a chance that the demands of fighting for a top two place in A-League (they host the league leaders in four days time) and also handling the increased level of competition in the Champions League , have caught up with them and remember, they are coming towards the end of a long season.
Frontale will be close to their peak now, they have to win today to give themselves a realistic chance of progression and a two goal win will take them above Wanderers and into second spot. In the first meeting, they were caught cold inside three minutes and then the Australian side shut up shop , with Kawasaki dominating, but unable to find a way through. Not hard to see how the visitors will approach this, as I type they have a point and they will be looking to hold on to it !
We should see pretty much a full strength home side tonight ( they rested half the starting eleven in Sydney) and they have a big edge in quality, fitness and now freshness, the visitors are more physical, but it will be hard for them to make that count under very different circumstances. Home win and the second goal gives them the h2h advantage.
1.5 units Kawasaki Frontale -1 ball 2.02 asian line/Ibramarket.
AFC Champions League: Guizhou Renhe -Ulsan Hyundai
This is the "other" Group H game, Ulsan are top with seven points, the hosts are surprisingly bottom with just a single point from three starts. I say surprisingly, as the other three Chinese teams taking part in the competition, are all sitting top of their respective groups and we have already discussed their strength in some depth this AFC CL campaign. Guizhou were (like Kawasaki) caught cold early by Western Sydney Wanderers in their only home group so far and put in a very disappointing performance. They put that behind them with a 1-1 draw in Ulsan last time out and it might be a case of history repeating, last year, on their Champions League debut, Guizhou were similarly slow starters, but collected five points from their final three group games just coming up short in qualification. They drew both games with Korean side Suwon Samsung Bluewings and should be up to claiming another point today. Assuming that WSW do not win in the earlier game, four points from two home games should keep Guizhou in the hunt going into the final round of games and that will be seen as vital, given how well the other Super League teams are going.
The hosts probably felt hard done by in the reverse fixture, with Ulsan being awarded a very soft looking penalty, scored by Brazilian striker Rafinha, both he and Kim Shin-wook, who are very much the visitors star assets ( with nine goals between them already this season in eight competitive starts) are amongst several players who have not traveled, being spared the "rigors" of the trip and saved for two K-League games in the next eight days.They do not need to win this, a draw would be fine, a defeat far from a disaster and they have clearly given priority to the domestic fixtures, knowing that they will have a free week to prepare for Matchday 5, a visit from WSW.
Guizhou are no Evergrande or even Shandong Luneng, but are the 4th best team in a league which is getting stronger year upon year and where clubs are prepared to invest in the best talent available. Zvjezdan Misimovic is the star of the show,a hugely experienced Bosnian international you might know from his decade in the Bundesliga , he has 26 goals for the national team .
The handicap start looks more than fair given how big this is to Guizhou and the approach from Ulsan. 1.5 units Guizhou Renhe +0.25 ball 1.92 asian line/Ibramarket.
English Championship: Wigan Athletic-Leicester City
City have one foot and four toes in the Premier League and just need another seven points to seal the deal.
Squad wise, these are probably the two strongest groups in the division and if coach Uwe Rosler had joined the Latics a little sooner, they might have been the top two in the Championship. As it is, a playoff spot is all the home side are likely to be able to claim, but they get their third Wembley visit inside 11 months next week, when they play Arsenal in the FA Cup semi final, three Championship games to play before then and this is the one I think will get their full attention, the chance to test themselves against the best in the division.
Athletic have conceded 11 of 18 home goals before the break, City have conceded 12 of 18 road goals in the first half. Good chance for some early action and "over" 1 goal in first half betting @ circa 2.03 is an option.
City are VERY strong after the break, collecting 83 points at an average of over 2.18 per game. They are 24-11-3 in the second half, 11-8-0 on the road and overall have taken 16 points from 13 matches in which they have trailed. That is both promising and surprising, surprising that the runaway leaders have trailed at the half in over a third of all starts (34%), given that and how strong they are after the break.
I am quite keen on the Wigan half time/ draw full time double result at circa 15.0 and Wigan HT/Leicester FT @ around 29.0, we could split 0.5 units between the two (say 0.35 and 0.15 respectively) if you want a small interest.
English League One: Sheffield United - Brentford
The Bees have gone off the boil in the last week, losing at Rotherham last midweek, when they were never at the races, he said mixing metaphors and then drawing 0-0 at Oldham Athletic on Saturday. They could have lost that too, but almost snatched victory right at the death with Stuart Dallas looking sure to snatch the points.
The Bees tend to end games strongly and are 14-6 (goals scored-conceded ) over the final 15 minutes of games. United are a poor 4-10 over the same period (1-3 at home) and conceded late at Swindon Town on Saturday, when they were pushing for the winner and left themselves exposed. The loss there made it very difficult for them to now make the top six and unless they beat Brentford tonight and Leyton Orient at the weekend, those dreams will be over. However, next week they have an FA Cup semi final appearance at Wembley against Hull City to look forward to and that might play on their mind the closer it comes. No player, especially at this level , will want to miss out on what might be a once in a lifetime opportunity to play in the national stadium. Anyway, United will have to push on and gamble late if we are all square and that is when they are most vulnerable.
Brentford have not lost an away game when ahead or level at half time.
Bit of "history" between these two and the meeting last year produced four penalties and three red cards ! Nine man Brentford snatched a point with a late equaliser there in a 2-2 draw. Maybe they will go one better with a late winner this evening.
Good Luck.
