Yesterday's subscriber newsletter is reproduced below in full, as explained, the notes were a little more basic than normal, but eight matches were previewed and as always, win or lose, the newsletter provided fantastic value for money.

 

Those of you who took advantage of the offer in the previous post, did not even have to pay for that newsletter, or any of the rest that will be sent out over the remainder of this month.

 

Four of the previews below provided winners, two saw stakes returned and two were losing selections, all eight previews contained something of interest, at least in my opinion.

 

Sportmarket Pro continues to provide the best betting value on the internet, you can read all about them here and my personal experience of using it on this link. Together with a clubgowi subscription, it is the perfect combination to ensure you give yourself the best possible opportunity to make 2014 your best betting year ever.

 

Huge weekend ahead with a quick turnaround from the Boxing day games, which almost always gives us an even bigger edge and full round of UK football.

 

Good Luck.

 

Thursday December 26th
 

Just a reminder that there is no email tomorrow, after which normal service will be resumed.

 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday December 28th .
 

These notes are fairly basic, but there are eight matches covered , they were written mostly on 23rd/24th and updated this morning with any late team news and taking into account market moves over the last day or so.
 

Championship: Bournemouth-Yeovil Town
 

Hosts have a 6-1-1 record in h2h meetings and won this 3-0 last season, when both were in League 1. The hosts are waiting to see what funds are available to them to spend in the transfer window and in a respectable 15th and as close to the top six as they are to the drop zone, they will be looking for a good holiday period to ensure that as much as possible is released. They have been big spenders in recent seasons and we spoke about this ahead of a thumping (5-2) they gave Millwall in October ...

The hosts are big spenders and have further strengthened with the eyecatching, albeit short term loan of Jack Collison from West Ham United, he is player I really like and needs some games to refind his form. The Cherries are very hit and miss this season (4-1-5) and received a couple of pastings, but have terrific bouncebackability and three of those four wins have come here at home.Ahead of the last of which I wrote ... "At the same time, promoted Bournemouth were losing their 100% home record in a 2-1 defeat to league leaders Blackpool, in a match they felt they dominated. Several of the players spoke afterwards about the two "sloppy" goals they gave away and they are very determined to get back on track this evening. The Cherries pride themselves on their resilience and have bounced back from two previous defeats, both heavy losses, to win next time out and are looking to do so again ahead of their longest trip of the season, up to Middlesbrough at the weekend. They will almost certainly introduce Tokelo Rantie to the team tonight, the South African international striker is fit after making 29 domestic and european appearances ( scoring eight goals) for Malmo this season and has promised to "show something special" after his club record £3.5m transfer. He, Lewis Grabban and Brett Pitman are going to give the ambitious hosts a big and varied offensive threat and they will fancy their chances against this suspect Tykes backline. "

They are stronger now and can take advantage of a Millwall team who are missing Beevers and probably still reeling from the midweek loss. Nice odds.
 

The home side are very much a "have" compared to Town who are firmly in the "have not" camp at this level, their playing budget is tiny, not just by Championship standards, but compared to most League 1 teams and even some in the fourth tier and that is just not playing off a level surface.They are set to be without central defender Byron Webster (18-3-2), who suffered a hamstring injury on Saturday, which, with Alan Tate already missing with a long term injury, leaves them very short of options in the middle of the backline, right-back Luke Ayling (18-0-0) is suspended and they have conceded ten goals in the last four games he has missed. Home win. 1.5 units Bournemouth -0.75 ball 2.11-2.13 asian line/Ibramarket.

 

Championship: Huddersfield Town-Derby County
 

County are on fire under the umbrella wielding, Dutch "speaking", former England boss Steve McClaren and the Rams have won seven straight and forced their way into contention for automatic promotion. However, I feel they are too short for today and having already seen off Burnley here at the Galpharm, I doubt that the hosts will fear the visitors, ahead of that win I wrote ....
 

Town lack consistency, but I have heard good things about them at times, especially from a couple of Sheffield Wednesday supporters who felt that the Terriers were one of the better teams they had faced this season and Yorkshire fans to not tend to give praise to local rivals. Boss Mark Robins took a strong disciplinarian line with two key players Adam Clayton and Mark Paterson who took liberties, both players and the rest of the team respected that, he allowed them to return last week, both scored and were instrumental in the win. Afterwards the coach said ...."I do things a certain way, but by no stretch of the imagination can we afford to leave our better players out for long periods, but they've got to tow the line."I'm pleased for them, but I'm pleased for everybody, I thought we were outstanding.""Paterson is a top player. It's taken him a little bit of time to settle down for whatever reason, but if he performs like that he will be a handful in the Championship."Paterson played 39 times for Burnley last season and will hugely motivated to face his former club. Odds are too big and I do not think there is a great deal between these two sets of players.
 

They should have taken something from the trip to inform Ipswich Town where they missed a penalty before taking the lead and then conceded a later winner, if they have been two up, it would almost certainly have turned out differently. They were without top scorer James Vaughan for the visit of Reading after that and lost 1-0 despite creating a whopping 27 attempts on goal and being extremely wasteful. They are coming off a 0-0 draw at Brighton, which has to be seen as a good result and they restricted the Seagulls to few real goalscoring opportunities.
 

Vaughan is back now and his interest will have been perked by the news that County central defender Richard Keogh (20-1-1) is injured and will miss only his second game of the season, County conceded four at home to Ipswich in the other, he played all 46 matches last season and this is a very big loss, the glue which holds the backline together. 1.25 units Huddersfield Town level ball 2.16-2.24 asian line/Ibramarket.

 

Championship: Middlesbrough- Burnley
 

I discussed Burnley at the end of last month, ahead of their trip to Huddersfield Town ....

Burnley have had an incredible and very unexpected start to their season and lost only once all season, but I feel similarly towards them as I do Leyton Orient in League 1, that they have overachieved and do not have the squad depth to compete over 46 matches with the stronger and better bankrolled teams and when one or two injuries kick in and they surely will, that they will start to struggle. I have been biding my time and waiting and I think it might just be time for loss number two. The Clarets have drawn three league matches in a row and lost to a West Ham United B team in the cup prior to that run and I feel teams are starting to know what to expect from them now, scouting reports are out and there are no new surprises. We opposed them at Millwall (half winner) at the start of the month and were unlucky not to collect in full. The visitors have a tiny squad and very small budget compared to all the other promotion cand idates in the Championship and boss Sean Dyche already knows he needs to add players and was hoping to do so before the loan window closed this week, but it came and went and he either did not find the right men, or funds were not made available, with Burnley operating at a big loss and to very strict financial guidelines/restraints.
 

They lost that 2-1 and it could easily have been 4-1, however, all credit to the Clarets for bouncing back and collecting eight points from four December starts and they come into this match still top of the Championship,but that doesn't really change much and they still need to strengthen in January if they are to still be competing for a return to the top flight come April. Those four matches since the trip to the Galpharm included games against three wildly out of form teams in Watford, Barnsley and Blackpool and all felt they deserved more from the game and in the 1-1 draw at Leicester, they could/should have been three instead of one down at the break, so I feel they are far from the top of their game at present and perhaps are riding their luck.
 

Boro recorded their first win and cleansheet under new coach Aitor Karank, but the former Real Madrid assistant coach has overseen steady improvement and but for a few basic errors, the win would have come sooner, after a month in charge he is starting to get his ideas across and picking his own team, rather than going with what was in place previously. I see this as very similar to the Huddersfield game in that there is little real difference between the two squads, just that one has over and one underachieved.
 

Boro right winger Albert Adomah ( 20-8-3) is a player I am very keen on , his goals tend to come in groups, six in five starts earlier in the season and it was a similar story at Bristol City, but he was playing far wider there and in a struggling team. He is very keen to make the Ghanaian squad for the World Cup and with British football having the worldwide spotlight on it and little competition from elsewhere, this is a very good opportunity to impress. I am focusing on him because he scored his first goal in six weeks at Millwall and also gave Burnley huge problems last season in both matches and left back Ben Mee was turned so many times at Turf Moor, his shirt was back to front at the end of the game. I have seen 3.60-4.0 for him to score anytime, but will opt for 1.25 units Middlesbrough -0.25 ball 2.11-2.12 asian line/Ibramarket.
 

League 1: Colchester United- Stevenage
 

Many of us are on United for a top 12 finish at nice odds, my pre season notes and recent update on them are at the foot of the page, along with my update on Brentford.
 

To get sidetracked for a moment, at the time Orient were 1.70 for promotion and the Bees 2.875, the O's are still a shade of odds on in some places and I seriously wonder if the oddsmakers watch the same games that I do. Orient have a significant inferior squad to Wolves, Brentford, Posh, Preston for sure and over 46 matches, that is almost always going to find you out.
 

United have not made the most of that easy run of games yet, but did win comfortably at Oldham Athletic and whilst I can accept that the Latics were running on empty after a lot of games in the last month, it will have served the U's well and their better league performances this season have tended to come in pairs. Sanchez Watt (see below) made his long awaited return from injury and although he stayed on the bench, I am sure he will play some part this week after another couple of days of training and I read an interview with him where his motivation to get his career back on track after the birth of his first son was leaping off the page. Big birthday's (especially for golfers) and becoming a father, are huge motivating factors for sportsmen just like everyone else and are something we have discussed in some depth previously. Young right sided midfielder Blair Turgott has signed from West Ham United and made his first start against Oldham, where,on the bench in addition to Watt, were Ryan Dickson and Clinton Morrison which are really good options and not what you would expect from a lower mid table side at this level.
 

United have played two games less than the visitors in the last month and I favour them to edge this. 1.5 units Colchester United level ball 1.94-1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.

 

League 1: Coventry City- Peterborough United
 

I have nothing but admiration for the job that the City youngsters and boss Steven Pressley have done under very difficult circumstances this season, but they have started to look a little weary and defensively, have been making a few errors, The Sky Bles have not kept a cleansheet in nine, conceding 19 goals in total, three or more in three of those, ten in three home games to Crewe, Tranmere and Rotherham makes very dismal reading and you fear for them against a team as offensively potent as Posh. We discussed the visitors on Saturday ....
 

 

League 2: Torquay United-Bristol Rovers
 

I discussed Rovers, a team I know quite well, with a close friend and all his family season ticket holders, in some detail last month .....

Big game for both teams who sit three and two points respectively above the drop zone. Rovers are far too big a club to be competing at this end of League 2, they were terribly hard hit by injuries early season and I do expect their now customary second half climb up the table to start soon and there are signs that perhaps it has begun. Rovers last three seasons at this level have seen them collect an average of 14 points more over the second half of the campaign, with a split of 31/41, 23/34 and last year 19/41 . They are unbeaten in three, which included four points off highflyers Oxford United and Chesterfield in the league and a 3-3 draw with York City in the FA Cup . This is a very young group of players and with youngsters confidence is key, once lost it is very hard to get back, but when they have it, there is no knowing how far it can take them. Boss John Ward knows this and has spoken several times this week about how important a game this is and that they have to keep this new found momentum up. The get midfielder John-Joe O'Toole (15-4-1 .... scored winner at Oxford and in 2 of Rovers 3 wins this season) back from suspension and Ward is delighted he has been able to extend the loan of Birmingham City's Will Packwood, the young central defender already has a handful of Championship starts and has been very influential in his month at the club. They also got some much needed cover and experience upfront this month, with the signing of Chris Beardsley from Preston.
 

They are a decent 3-3-2 in eight starts since and are definitely on the up. Their injury list is shortening week by week and key central defender Mark McChrystal was the latest to return, playing all 90 minutes in a 2-0 defeat of Portsmouth last weekend, he and the rest of the team came through that tired but OK and boss John Ward has no new problems to deal with and they travel West in very good heart. Defensively they look as solid as at anytime in the last six months and we should keep on the right side of them over the coming weeks. They tend to do well in these "West derby" fixtures posting good records here, where they are unbeaten in four ,scoring two or more in three and also at Cheltenham and Oxford, they are a terrifically well supported club at this level and large numbers will be making the trip to Plainmoor, they are a bit of a sleeping giant and fans have been very patient with the coach John Ward, whom they know has had terrible problems to deal with, but they are expecting a good holiday period and this is much easier than the trip to highflying Rochdale on Monday. If the Gas could get a result from these, they have 4 from 5 January starts at home and once again, that now traditional second half of the season push could be on. United lost assistant boss Chris Brass this week who left to join a "bigger" club, I know that they have had funds pumped into them recently, but when you are talking about the Shakers as a bigger club, you know that you are operating on sparse resources. Staying in the Football League is the Gulls target, Rovers are looking higher. Away win. 1.5 units Bristol Rovers level ball 2.06-2.09 asian line/Ibramarket.

 

Premier League: Manchester City-Liverpool
 

I expect this to be hugely entertaining. Liverpool could hardly be in better form and are scoring for fun, with Luis Suarez quite possibly the best player on the planet right now. The loss of Steven Gerard was seen by everyone as huge, but the truth is that they have improved without him, or are at least playing at a higher tempo and to the strengths of Suarez and it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Both teams are happier on the front foot, City remain vunerable when teams attack them, they were fortunate to beat Fulham (who scored twice) last weekend and they remain without a natural right back at present with Zabaleta and Richards still missing, along with Sergio Aguero and there should be plenty of joy in this offensively for the Reds, who drew 2-2 here last season and who have scored 25 goals in their last seven starts. Arsenal scored three here recently, albeit conceding six in the process, but there should definitely be goals in this for the visitors. A Boxing Day thriller 2-2, 3-3 will be my call and my "official" bet.... 1.25 units Liverpool to score two or more 2.375 + there is up to 2.625 in places.... this is the late television game and many companies will bet this market in running, but don't wait too long, as Liverpool have scored a PL high 11 goals on the road before the break.

 

Football League 1:  (written 28/11)
 

Colchester United Update
 

 

I think the U's have been incredibly unlucky, they started well, winning their first two matches and were unbeaten through four starts, but lost player after player to injury and were really struggling for numbers through September and October. They have slowly got back on track and wins at home over Peterborough United and MK Dons, two classy footballing sides and points on the road at a very physical Rotherham United and decent Preston North End, indicate that they are no easy touch and I expect them to get their share of wins in the remainder of the season. They are currently in 15th , but only a point adrift of Dons who are 11th, I suspect only really 8th-12th (at best) is up for grabs and their current quote of circa 3.50 to finish top half seems about right, maybe I would be a tiny bit shorter, but not by much ( 3.0-3.25), but the good news is that many of us have 5.50, which is (obviously) great value and should provide us with plenty of interest in the coming months.
 

Further good news is that they have already played away to Sheffield United, Coventry City, Bradford City, Brentford, Rotherham and Preston, arguably six of the ten hardest road trips in League 1, it is also promising that in the next month they face Tranmere Rovers, Notts County, Oldham Athletic, Stevenage and Crewe Alexandra, four of whom are in the bottom six and with an average league placing of 20th , a real opportunity to pick up some points, cement themselves in midtable and then, maybe, push on.
 

Freddie Sears, Ryan Dickson and Jabo Ibehre have all recently returned to the squad, Sanchez Watt is due back soon, but is starting to look very injury prone, however,  I read that he is extremely motivated to get back asap and these are all going to give the U's decent options in the coming months. I spoke below about the money spent on the academy and training facilities and that is why big clubs, like Arsenal, Chelsea, West ham and Everton have all allowed youngsters to come and develop at the club and I suspect we will continue to see plenty of promising talent arrive at the Community Stadium ( Luke Garbutt of the Toffees has just extended his loan deal into the New Year btw). 12th place will do nicely and I think they might just do it !
 

Brentford Update
 

The Bees started slowly and to be honest, have still not full hit their stride, that might seem an odd thing to say about a team who have won six of their last seven and drawn at the league leaders in the other match in that sequence, but it is true. I suspect they have played one 45 minute spell at close to their full potential over those seven games and that is why there is no limit to how far this club and group of players can go over the next few years. They were very unlucky in that they brought in Conor McAleny to allow them to play a certain way in particular games and he got injured early and it took a long time to find the right replacement , reorganise things and just for everything to gel, which it still hasn't 100%, but it is getting there. There were injuries to Jake Bidwell and Jonathan Douglas , who is very much the team leader and they lost their starting goalkeeper to the Premier League and then his back up was also injured ,all were missed and few other teams would have been able to stay in contention missing so many key players, possibly none at at this level. I have no doubts at all, that the only team that can compete with the Bees in terms of their squad is Wolverhampton Wanderers and I fully expect these two clubs to fill the top two places and gain automatic promotion. My thoughts on Leyton Orient, which are that they do not have the strength in depth and are too reliant on 4-5 key players are unchanged and I would be stunned, if they were strong enough to hang on in there over 46 matches.  The Bees could name a second eleven without any of the players who started on Tuesday night and they would probably push for a playoff spot, they have a player Will Grigg, who scored 20 +goals in League 1 last season and who cost the Bees close to £600k a massive sum for a third tier team and he is struggling to even get a spot on the bench. This is a group of players with a good mix of youth and experience, but even the youngsters have plenty of games under their belt ( Bidwell is 20 and has almost 100 League appearances, likewise Adam Forshaw who is many peoples idea of the best young player in L1 ) and for me, they can only go one way.  I put them up at circa 4.33 -4.50 for promotion pre season, they are now down to 2.70-2.875, but I think those are pretty decent odds and far better value than the 1.70 on Orient, which is a joke price in my opinion, Bees on course for a top 2 finish.  

 

Good Luck.