Rafa's form has improved with the warmer weather and we are set for what is likely to be the hottest day of the tournament, he was also helped by meeting a man in the quarter finals (Stanislas Wawrinka) against whom he is 22-0 lifetime in sets and who couldn't beat him on a best/worst day respectively.

However, we have seen a different animal at Roland Garros this year, a Rafa looking low on confidence and self belief and one who, despite winning six of the eight tournaments he has entered since returning from injury and making the final in the other two, seems unsure of his ability to win a grand slam. This is not entirely new for the Spaniard, he has had career drops in confidence and if he were not a tennis player, I doubt he would be seeking the limelight in any other chosen career. His coach and uncle Toni Nadal spoke a little about this thought process back in April...  “Yes we worried because during the injury period there have been quite complicated  moments because the recovery was slower than expected. So, it’s normal to have doubts… On some occasions we were thinking that it was going to be really difficult to go back at the top level he was in the previous years. We still don’t know today if we will go back as high or a bit lower.”

At that time he had already won four of those six tournaments, so they knew Rafa could win again, but it is the top level competition we are talking about and basically Novak Djokovic and I genuinely believe Rafa is a little fearful today. The King of Roland Garros has never had a problem beating Federer, so the fact that he destroyed him in Rome, is less important than the loss to the Serbian world number one in Monte Carlo, a tournament Rafa has dominated even more than the French Open. Nadal was 46-0 and an eight time defending champion when they met in this year's final, Djokovic won 6-2 7-6 and was all over his opponent's serve, with Nadal winning only 7 points from 22 second serves.

Djokovic feels that win possibly gives him the edge now and said after his quarter final win over Tommy Haas, “That is something that can maybe give me that mental edge when I step onto the court. Knowing I already won against him on clay this season, knowing I can do it, even though not many players in last ten years have won against him on this surface and he’s been the most dominant player in the history of this sport on this surface.”

In terms of overall play/form and confidence, which Djokovic has in spades, the scales tip towards the Serbian, Rafa's advantage is obviously that this is on clay ( now lessened) and at Roland Garros, where he has only dropped one set to Novak in four previous meetings (last year's final). In that final Djokovic hit an awful lot of unforced errors, three times what he had given up previously in the tournament, he still took a set and is unlikely to gift Nadal as many points today. I think the balance has tipped his way and I expect him to win a minimum two sets this afternoon.

1.50 units Novak Djokovic 2.375 + ..... there is 2.36 on Pinnacle and 2.42 on the exchanges.

0.3 units Rafael Nadal to win 3-2 sets 6.0 + general quote.

Good Luck.