Easter is hugely busy in football terms, especially at clubgowi and we started the weekend with 11 full match preview for Friday alone, three from J-League, likewise for Ligue 2 in France and five from the Championship/League 2 . As a sample you can read the notes from the Japanese games below. They are only meant as a sample of what is available and results do not overly matter, for a couple of euros per day, less for longest term subscribers, this is what a clubgowi subscription brings you, quality ,choice and volume at low cost which allows you to be selective in what you bet.
I have just sent out the first of two newsletters for today with previews of four English matches and the follow up at lunchtime ( see full schedule in previous post) will look at the rest of today's action.
Gamba Osaka- Nagoya Grampus
This could be fun !
Gamba were our team last season, we sided with them early in the campaign and were ahead of the oddsmakers in terms of appreciating their ability , which they rode all the way to a famous treble. To provide some background information to that , I have reproduced two late season previews at the foot of this email. Ahead of their season opener with FC Tokyo, I discussed both of these clubs in terms of how they finished last season ....
Gamba Osaka were easily the best J-League team last season and completed the domestic treble despite being in the relegation zone after 14 rounds. Knowing that, it will not surprise you to know that they, with 39 points, were the best team over the second half of the campaign , followed by Kashiwa Reysol with 36 and Kashima Antlers with 33, they were the only three teams to break the 30 point barrier, although special mention goes to Nagoya Grampus with 29, which was far and away the best of the teams who finished in the bottom half of the table and I see them as a big potential improver.
Akira Nishino is in his second year in charge there and his ideas were clearly getting across to the players and having an influence in the second half of last season, he was wildly successful at Gamba Osaka for a decade, winning numerous trophies and two coach of the year awards. He took a while to start winning things at Gamba and Nagoya are clearly prepared to give him time and to back his judgement, the signings of Kengo Kawamata from Albirex Niigata and Leandro Domingues from Kashiwa Reysol last summer worked out well, with Kensuke Nagai thriving alongside them with 9 goals and three assists over the last 17 games and the club averaging almost two goals per game. They have now added veteran Slovenian striker Milivoje Novakovic from Shimizu S-Pulse, who's record of scoring 16 goals and contributing 4 assists in 38 league and cup appearances for a team battling relegation was awesome, as was the fact he was available for every single game and only missed 23 minutes of league action, at pushing 35 years of age. Really see a big season for them if they can all gel and hit the ground running. They open against one the promoted teams and you are never quite sure what you will get with them, but I would suggest that given up the bigger handicap on Nagoya, who were champions in 2010 and runners up in 2011, might be the way to go
.
In relation to their match with FCT I added....
Elsewhere, I think the teams that have already played a competitive fixture or two, are at a massive advantage today, even if they have had to travel in a midweek AFC Champions League fixture, you only have to see how much a player returning from injury improves from his first 20-30 minute run out to see how important one or two games can be.
In terms of today, that is Gamba Osaka, Urawa Reds (who have both played two AFC games and a Super Cup contest, which the champions won 2-0) and Kashiwa Reysol who played "just" the two Champions League games including winning 5-1 at home in midweek. Most of you know I love Gamba, but they host FC Tokyo whom I see as a team with big potential and this is a match I want to watch with a view to the future and without financial involvement, I know, weird eh !! If forced to choose it would have to be Gamba and the odds are fair, but this is one to learn something from and I will pass
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They led 2-0 and looked to be coasting, but Tokyo came on strong late in the game and the two clubs shared four goals, the performance was good , just as it was at Sagan (see below) next time out, but the ball did not quite run for them, they did, however, get off the mark just before the international break where they saw off Venforet in Kofu 2-0 in a hugely impressive showing, not allowing the hosts, who had a very defensive minded approach, a single attempt of note on goal. I feel they will have more to do at the back today, Nagoya pose a real threat offensively (see notes above) and whilst we have perhaps not seen so much of that in their last two league starts, they scored three in that opener and have six goals from two cup ties and this is a team with goals in them. Nagoya have a good record here, scoring on their last ten visits, two or more in four of their last five and have not lost in six.
Gamba are tight at the back, but are getting a little short of options, full back Oh JaeSuk is out for a couple of weeks and in defensive midfield, Tatsuya Uchida is still absent and veteran Tomokazu Myojin picked up an injury last time out, left winger Shu Kurata replaced him and played well, but if he has to do so again, will have more of a test today. Yasuyuki Konno was on the bench in Kofu , but was not used when Myojin was injured, which seems odd although he did come on after the break and you have to assume that the DM is still a little way from full match fitness, but maybe they will get an hour or so from him today. Shohei Ogura was brought in from Yokohama F. Marinos to play this role, but whilst he has played two halves of CL football, he has not even made the bench in the league. Not big, but minor concerns.On a positive note ,Takashi Usami and Patric have continued on their free scoring and merry ways up front and very few teams will keep this duo out for too long.
I definitely like goals here, but Nagoya will surely not want to to go gung ho too early and as we know from experience, Gamba can take a while to get going , they have scored two goals in three of their four starts ( three JL1 and the Super Cup) and and all six goals have come after the 46th minute, with five arriving through the third quarter, which is when their heavy possession style game usually starts to wear teams down.
This starts at a "decent" time (11.00 UK) and if you are watching/ following, I would suggest two possible in "play bets" firstly, I would like to bet 1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals if the quote reaches 2.10 before a goal is scored and secondly, 1.5 units Gamba Osaka either at half time if they are level/drawing ( or earlier if they fail behind) at the first asian line quoted above 2.0.
Kashima Antlers- Sagan Tosu
These two met on the final day of last season, which was less than four months ago, ahead of which I wrote ......
Reysol can steal 4th by bettering Sagan's result, or if both win, by scoring one more goal. These scenarios are the real interest in this round of games.
We have spoken a lot about how Sagan approach games ... Ahead of their home game with Urawa last week I wrote ......Expect this to be cagey through the early exchanges.Sagan have drawn 20 of 32 first halves, but only two of those have ended all square (10 wins and 8 defeats).That was level at the break and did actually end 1-1, but Sagan were reduced to ten men and fell behind and to score a late equaliser with ten men, against a team who would have kept the title destiny in their own hands with the win, was a terrific result and all credit has to go to them for plugging away for 95 minutes . Antlers did us a big favour last weekend with that win at Cerezo, but this looks set to be far tougher, despite Sagan being without two suspended players, I feel that the visitors will look to keep this tight as long as possible, definitely until half time, which is their modus operandi in any case and hope that the results outlined above come to pass and that Antlers motivation will evaporate. I quite like Sagan +0.5 ball as a draw could be enough, but would prefer taking big odds for the away win "in play", if Gamba are ahead and doubly so if Reysol also lead. They are without a couple of players, but to my miind, that is more than factored into the odds
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That played out well for us with Sagan winning 1-0, it was not enough for them to claim 4th spot and one of the Champions League places, as Reysol won by the desired two goals, but they did finish level on points with both them and third placed Antlers and perhaps missing out on the international fixtures is a blessing in disguise. Playing in the international club game has certainly not done Kashima any favours so far, they have lost all three Champions League fixtures, conceding eight goals in the process and have just a single point from three J-League starts, shiping three goals at Shimizu who narrowly missed relegation ( by one point) last season and who have not scored in their other two fixtures this time round and also losing at home to a newly promoted team. They had a very young team last season and in their last outing, six were aged 22 or younger and this is the always difficult big second season for many and they are no longer the surprise package they were at the start of the last campaign, key striker Davi who scored and assisted for 18 goals in 2014 has a long term injury and in his absence, Antlers have lost 10 of 18 starts.
Sagan have started well, posting two wins including one over Gamba Osaka, where they went toe to toe early with the treble winners, however, once they took the lead, arguably a little against the run of play they reverted more to type and according to Gamba, "parked the bus", but this is a team with a little something about them and against whom it is absolutely vital to score first. They won 10 times on the road last season and are ideally suited to playing on the break and with Antlers leaking goals, it is easy to see the visitors scoring and one, given their defensive prowess, might well again be enough.
1.5 units Sagan Tosu +0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
FC Tokyo- Ventforet Kofu
No point in spending too long on this, most of you will know that I like FC Tokyo as a team and we spoke about them ahead of their last game a 2-0 road win at Vissel Kobe and those notes are reproduced below to provide a little background information. The hosts are unbetaen through the new season, but have yet to win in front of their own supporters and will surely be all guns blazing for maximum points today.
Kobe were better than I thought last week and they are a team we will be returning to over the next week or two, as I saw something very interesting in their play. I did look at them today, but the fixture , away to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, was not quite what I was looking for. anyway, I feel that three points and a cleansheet there might look even better in a couple of week than it even does currently. Lets leave almost the final word to good old Massimo Ficcadenti .....
"I think that first of all we should recognize the quality of the Kobe team. I think our players produced a magnificent display today. In the first half we had several chances and threatened the opposition goal on many occasions. In the second period they came out a little more and we managed to score another goal. After that we were able to see out the game the way we wanted. I really want to praise the team for their excellent performance today. In terms of the physical and tactical aspects, I'm extremely satisfied with the way we were able to produce exactly what we've been aiming for in the game today".
Good work ethic amongst the players and after the game, rather than talk about the win, which they left to the coach, most of them felt they could play better and were if anything, a little disappointed by their personal performances, which can only augur well for the future.
Kofu as we discussed yesterday, were very timid and only looking for one point at home to Gamba last time out and it is not easy to make a case for them being more (perhaps less) adventurous today. They will try to hold on to what they have got, maybe steal a goal on the break and hand all the initiative to FCT who are an improving team who will be looking to make a major breakthrough this season. Home win.
1.5 units FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Vissel Kobe- FC Tokyo
Tokyo were another team we discussed a lot last season, especially through the early/middle part of the campaign, they were close to getting it right all season long , but as I said last July, they are a "mixture of the unwatchable and unplayable" ! At times they looked as good as anyone in J-League and many opposing coaches viewed them as the best team thay had played and this was highlighted with four players making the most recently named national team squad, champions Gambe Osaka are the only other team to have as many in the squad and shows the quality that coach Massimo Ficcadenti, whom we quoted almost week by week last season, has at his disposal. His team opened with a 2-2 draw away to a fitter Gamba, which was very noteworthy as they fought back from two down late and followed up with a home draw with Yokohama and cup defeat of Albirex Niigata in midweek, so pleasing enough, without setting the world on fire. I have just watched the highlights of the match with Marinos, I do not want to say anything about that until next week, instead we can look at Ficcadenti's comments after the Gamba game which are perhaps more pertinent.......
"I felt we held the ball with confidence in the first half and played good football. However, conceding a goal like that changes the flow of the game and it became very difficult for us. In the second half we conceded again to a penalty and the game became more difficult still. We changed our formation after that since the opposition were closing down the space in midfield. We simplified the midfield and tried to win the game inside the penalty area. We had a clear idea of what we were trying to do, played with a high intensity and the tactics worked well. We managed to go from a very grim situation at 0-2 down to drawing the game. Gamba Osaka were the champions last year and there's no mistaking they are the strongest team in the league, so to play the way we did shows the real mentality of our side. From that point of view I'm very satisfied today".
Kobe have lost their last three home starts and FCT have tasted defeat here just once in ten visits and I favour the visitors to record their first league win of the season. Their sole loss here in recent years came in last season's league meeting, after which I wrote ...
They (FCT) lost 2-1, again creating plenty of chances, which they failed to make the most of. Ficcadenti , who obviously sees his team through rose coloured spectacles said :"In the first half the players did exactly as asked and created a host of chances. They also did well in restricting the number of chances the opposition had. As for the second half, I had them focus on pressing further up the pitch than in the first half; then, after we gifted the opposition a goal it was difficult for us to play the way we had intended. The players didn't give up after we went 2-0 down and after we pulled a goal back we created several chances to have tied the game. The Kobe keeper had a good game but it was we who created the greater number of chances, I think".
To be fair to Ficcadenti, Vissel Kobe manager Adachi admitted that they had trouble with the pressing game of Tokyo and that his team couldn't get any fluidity until the first goal. Tokyo have not had much luck in the league and have played better than results suggest, they forced Vissel into errors in the first half and stole possession any number of times
. The two teams met in Kobe again just four weeks later in the cup, with FCT winning very easily that time, with three unanswered goals. Away win.
1.5 units FC Tokyo -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
