La Liga betting preview: Sevilla- Atletico Madrid
Mar 01, 2015
La Liga : Sevilla- Atletico Madrid
We have spoken quite a bit about how important the Atletico engine room, especially Koke are to them and the team just do not operate the same relentless way when he is missing, my preview ahead of the trip to Celta two weeks ago highlighted this ......
Briefly, Celta look a little overpriced here with Aletico short of key players in the middle of the park, with Raul Garcia, Arda Turan and Koke sidelined.
I spoke ahead of the first Copa game with Real early last month about the relentless pressing of the midfield and the huge contribution of Koke and by the midfield, I largely mean this trio ......
The weekend could hardly have gone any better for Atletico, they beat Levante 3-1 with a positive offensive performance, then officially announced the return of favourite son Fernando Torres ( I know, I know) and then sat back and watched both Real and Barce lose, results which blew open the title race, with the big three now only separated by a single point. Torres is not viewed in Spain and especially this side of Madrid, in the same way as regular watchers of the EPL see him and he will not be under the same kind of pressure to deliver, at least not immediately and things are so much easier when supporters already love you and adore him they do. 45,000 ( I kid you not) turned up at the Vicente Calderon Stadium on Sunday to welcome him home, watch him juggle the ball in the centre circle and kick a few balls into the crowd. There was no league fixture, as Atletico played on Saturday ( which means they have not had to travel and have had 24 hours longer recovery time), so Torres will be in no doubt about the affection with which he is held in and I would not be totally surprised if we saw the old FT return over the coming months.
Atletico have made a habit of stepping up in the big games and Diego Simeone will have them fired up for this. My view about the hosts long term prospects in this competition is pretty much unchanged from last season, in that, IMO , they simply do not need the Copa, they are heavily involved in the title race and the Champions League and could do without additional fixtures. Barcelona will almost certainly await the winner and four extra games against the big two inside 22 days and they also go to Barcelona for a La Liga fixture on Sunday, will surely take a toll somewhere down the line. However, convincing Simeone to change his mind and intensity, is a little like getting a politician to agree with the opposition in the build up to an election, it ain't gonna happen ! This is a man who has probably never taken a backward step in his life and he will be 100% committed to this game and his squad dare not do otherwise. Mario Mandzukic and Antoine Griezmann are finally starting to click and the midfield never give you one moments peace, are a mirror image of the coach and have bossed most of the recent games between the two clubs. Atletico are unbeaten in two Super Cup games and a trip to the Bernabeu this season, posting two wins, with Griezmann (off the bench) and Juanfran both causing problems with the space Real leave out wide and the (still) largely underrated Koke, hugely influential in all three games. Real have the game changers and if they have a going day there is not really too much opponents can do, but I feel the hosts have a big edge in midfield and do not see them losing this evening.
The loss to Valencia on Sunday, ended a run of 22 straight competitive wins for Real, but after their World Club Cup commitments, did they really need to shoehorn in a friendly against Milan in Dubai over New Year, when most other La Liga players were spending a few days with their families ? They were harassed and out worked by Valencia at the Mestalla and are going to face a similar , but better challenge this evening. I suspect both would be reasonably happy with a draw, although Simeone would never admit that and I see that as the most likely outcome, but feel we are better served by taking the hosts with the handicap start.
They lost 2-0 at Almeria without Koke last season, but I can find no recent game where they have been without two of these, let alone all three and they look massive losses for a team who like to make as little rotation as possible.
Atletico lost that 2-0 and also their Champions League game in Leverkusen in midweek (1-0) again without scoring. Today they get Koke back and it is a massive boost for them, ahead of what is a huge game, Simeone has spoken this week about the trip to Sevilla being potentially pivotal in their La Liga season if they are to challenge the big 2 for the title again. Barcelona took their three points last night, Real seem likely to follow suit this evening and failure for Atletico to do likewise, is going to see them fall further adrift and might signal the end of their title defence. They do not do many draws, just one of the road (six wins) and one at home, Sevilla will, in all likelihood be 6-8 points adrift of Valencia in the race for 4th spot come kick off and a point is going to be of little help to them, both will surely go all out for three points and I favour the visitors, with Koke, Garcia and Turan all back in the middle, to powerhouse them to victory. They have not lost to Sevilla in ten h2h meetings, including winning on their last two visits here, including a 3-1 victory here last season when we were strongly in the Atletico camp and the reverse fixture 4-0 back in September. Hosts have had 24 hours less recovery time having played themselves in Germany on Thursday and two of the three matches ( Eibar and Levante) in which they have dropped home points this season, have come following Thursday games. Hosts have conceded 14 goals in their last four starts against top 4 teams and whilst all were on the road, it shows the gap they still have to bridge to compete with the very best in La Liga.
1.5 units Atletico Madrid -0.5 ball 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket, there is a little higher in a place or two if you shop around.
Good Luck.
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