League 1 : Gillingham - Peterborough United (written 09.30 UK time)
Posh are our League 1 selection, are in the top two already and can extend an already three point advantage over the pack with all three points this evening. They are coming off a 0-0 home draw with Notts County, but will get a lot more space this evening and are defending a 100% record on the road. My preseason notes on them are reproduced at at the foot of the email. In the update, written earlier this month I added .....
Posh have won 4 of 5 and outplayed Sheffield United for long periods in their only defeat.
They lost Britt Assombalonga to Nottingham Forest, who made an offer no L1 club could ever refuse. Boro already had targets lined up and signed Marcus Maddison from Gateshead and 19 yo Luke James from Hartlepool, both are archetypal Posh signings (Ferguson, Barry Fry and MacAnthony all have a very good eye for non and lower league talent), banking the other circa £4-5m. Maddison is only 20 and was very well thought of at Newcastle United a couple of years back, but paid the price for perhaps believing the hype and had to drop out of league football to prove himself and is now very hungry to impress. James was totally adored by supporters at Hartlepool and has been monitored by a host of bigger clubs.They have also signed defender Christian Burgess on loan from Middlesbrough .They face Port Vale, Notts Co and Fleetwood at home, Yeovil and Gillingham on the road this month and that it not a set of fixtures to strike too much terror into Boro . I felt the 12-13 was too big pre season and feel similarly about the 9.0 now, but there is no need to bet again. However, I have to say I will be shocked if they are too far away come the end of the season.
They have taken four points from the two starts since then and I expect them to add to that tally this evening, they are another team who should be suited to a quick turnaround, having a strong group of players with competition for starting places. Gillingham less so and they look an archetypal mid table side, who look short of goals. They have heavily relied upon Cody McDonald to provide those in recent seasons, but he has only scored one in six, Danny Kedwell has scored four this season, but has been carrying a knock and has not played this month and is again a doubt this evening and the goals have dried up. They conceded four at both Barnsley and MK Dons, neither of whom pose the offensive threat of Boro and the problem is that when they try to protect the backline, the offense suffers, witness three consecutive starts without scoring. Defensively they have not been helped by the three match suspension to Gavin Hoyte who will again be missing tonight and the long term injury to former Brentford keeper Stuart Nelson, who had missed only one match over the previous two seasons, they have conceded an average of 1.86 goals per game in his absence. Away win. 1.25 units Peterborough United -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
League 1 Outright: (written August 4th)
I saw quite a bit of Sheffield United under Nigel Clough last season, they finished the season very strongly. after a dismal start under a different coach, made the semi finals of the FA Cup and are far and away the biggest club at this level, in what is a weaker League 1 this season. The two best clubs by some way in Woverhampton Wanderers and Brentford gained automatic promotion and ambitious and big spending Rotherham United came up through the playoffs, the teams coming down might struggle and those stepping up, will need to make a big leap to get competitive..
I felt for most of the summer that United would just win League 1, provided they made a decent start, but odds were low, too low, given that they released a lot of players, lost a couple of others and have been very slow to trade for replacements and I think funds are tight, also I think the fact that Doncaster Rovers and Barnsley were relegated will not help them, with six keenly contested Yorkshire derby games to play this season. I can agree with them as favourites and they might win, but they are too skinny in the market for my taste and I feel I have a better value selection and one which will give us a very good run for our money.
I saw Peterborough United live twice last season and obviously accept that I saw the best of them, as I was impressed both times and if they had played at that level for the whole of the campaign, they would be back in the Championship now, but this is a team with potential and in addition to finishing sixth, they also won the JPT Trophy, most clubs would have been reasonably happy with that, they felt they had massively underachieved and coach and owner both termed it an "epic failure". I felt the loss of Lee Tomlin, who is a wildly talented chunky monkey ( think Andy Reid) in the transfer window was huge, I told you many times how vital he was to them and they were always going to struggle after he left. However, what the remaining games enabled them to do, was learn to win without their star player and come the end of the seaon, they had actually averaged almost exactly (slightly more) points per game after he left.
Having already said that I feel L1 is weaker, that same "underachieving" Posh team should certainly not finish any lower than sixth this time round, even with the same squad which ended last season and they were 7 points + ahead of the chasing pack. But this is not the same team, it is much stronger IMO. First up they have stuck with manager Darren Ferguson, not only "stuck" ,but he has been given a three year contract, apart from a one year break at Preston North End, he has been in charge at London Road since Janaury 2007 and knows the club (which is very oddly set up off the pitch) inside out, he has earned promotion three times, twice to the Championship, so knows his way out of this division. He has a close relationship with owner Darragh MacAnthony, but they did have a major discussion at the end of last season about the future, which ended with the pair setting out plans for the next couple of years and eventually signing the contract extension, then Ferguson got busy !
They started with little and large, signing giant 1.97 m defender Ricardo Santos and diminutive striker Erhum Oztumer (1.6m) from non league football, Boro have had incredible success with these type of players in the past. I understand Santos, who is only 19 yo is "the real deal", Oztumer scored 33 goals last season and I am guessing, not many with his head ! He is said to be very quick and a lot of league clubs took a look at him, Burnley were very interested and had him at the club for some time, but were worried about his size. They signed former Sunderland and Tottenham goal keeper Ben Alnwich, who has impressed in pre season and right back Michael Smith from Bristol Rovers, who I know Brentford took a long look at. They resigned former Fulham and Stoke City defender Gabriel Zakuni, who said he had unfinished business at London Road and Jon Taylor who scored 9 goals in 44 appearances for relegated Shrewsbury Town last season. Several Championship and half the L1 teams were interested in him and one actually offered him a 50% increase on his Posh contract just as he was about to sign for Ferguson and for once, a player did what he thought was right for his game and future and went with Boro. They also signed "Baby Bale", Kenny McEvoy, on a season long loan from Tottenham, you only have to see the youngster to know why he got the name, he is a doppelganger for Gareth Bale and also has blistering pace, he has been getting a lot of attention at youth level, but probably needs to get away from WHL to flourish and make the step up .
They have managed to keep 21 yo striker Britt Assombalonga, who has been terrorising lower league defences for the last two years, scoring 23 goals in 43 appearances last season and he will only improve with another year under his belt. Along with Conor Washington, who has already proved he can make the step up after signing in the last transfer window from Newport County for circa £500k ( he scored a ton of non league goals), they have young ,hugely potent and pacey offensive options right through the team and Tyrone Barnett and Grant McCann give them a little more experience going forwards, They are going to be hugely exciting to watch (as usual) and this is a team who will score a LOT of goals this season. They need only make minimal improvement to break into the top 2-3, actually they might not need to improve at all, but I feel it will come and suggest we take ...........
1.75 units Peterborough United to win League 1 outright 12.0-13.0 general quote.
1.75 units Peterborough United to gain promotion from League 1 4.0-4.50 general quote.
These L1 notes, were not as I would have liked, I lost some of my notes on Posh overnight and had to type most from memory this morning, which was not ideal, I think I remembered most of the key points, but they would have read much better and been more detailed, if I had written them yesterday !
