Monaco got what they needed in midweek and more, with their defeat of Zenit earning them the #1 spot in their group and now they have a lot to look forward to in 2015. Ahead of that game I spoke about their approach and problems......
ASM will qualify with a point, win the group if they take three points and Leverkusen fail to do likewise, but they have claimed that qualification is their only concern and clearly implied that they will play for a point, they are not exactly flush with goals post Falcao and James Rodriguez and are clearly way below last season's level and have ridden their luck at times to post eight points through five group games, scoring just twice. If they managed to go through 0-0, they will be the first team in history to qualify with just two goals, but make no mistake, coming into this match, that will be their game plan. They managed just two attempts on target in home games with Bayer and Benfica and have keeper Danijel Subašić and some wasteful finishing from opponents to thank for the four points they took from those games.
This is a very young home side and this is a high pressure encounter to come into missing suspended Ricardo Carvalho and injured Layvin Kurzawa, both Andrea Raggi and Geoffrey Kondogbia face late tests and that could rob them of their two most experienced defenders and protection for a backline which will surely be given a severe examination.They are well organised, but we might well see seven players in their team aged 19-21 and at this stage, of this competition and under these circumstances , I prefer a little more experience and the occasion could get to the hosts.
Zenit dominated possession and ASM were, as expected, ultra cautious, but the visitors did not create enough and were made to pay for their lack of creativity. However, Monaco had a draining game, are again without Carvalho, Kurzawa, Kondogbia , Wallace and now also key offensive player Dimitar Berbatov who picked up an injury in midweek. Tired, weaker in central defence, no left back, without their best defensive midfielder and forward, I just cannot see a home win.
Marseille have had a free midweek to prepare and have the massive incentive of knowing that two wins will see them go into the break as "Christmas champions", that will be a huge achievement and way above expectations for this campaign. Ahead of their last away start I wrote .....
The visitors (OM) have made a great start to life under coach Marcelo Bielsa (pictured....in a different lifetime, the eyebrows give him away !), whom most long term readers know that I hold in the highest regard, if you have enjoyed watching Bilbao and Chile play in recent seasons, much of that is down to him, he is totally bonkers, but very gifted. His team have lost three in a row on the road in all competitions, but the cup game was of no interest given how they had started in the league , they had previously won four away starts and look to have many advantages this evening. Firstly the stronger squad is almost always better served by the quick turnaround and one of those away wins was their only midweek league fixture, where they won 5-0 at Reims, the same night Lorient lost 4-0. OM played Friday, so have an extra 24 hours + recovery time, not only that, but the hosts played in Toulouse, which is a 15-16 hour round trip on Saturday. Lorient have already lost four times at home this season, have lost their last four home starts against "top 4" teams and lost 2-0 to Marseille here last season and the visitors are much improved since.
Not all good news as OM are without central defender Nicolas Nkoulou and left winger Romain Alessandrini, I am less concerned about the latter who has not featured heavily this season, Nkoulou is their best defender, but missed the game against Bordeaux and they found a way to win that 3-1 and now have defensive midfielder Alaixys Romao and left back Jeremy Morel available now, so are in much better defensive shape than for that game
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They drew that 1-1 , but followed up with an effortless defeat of Metz last week, which kept them on track and Nkoulou is back now. This looks a good time to be playing Monaco and if they are going to push PSG for the title, one Marseille are going to have to look to win. Marseille have scored two or more goals on four of their last eight visits here, three or more in two and if they edge ahead and take ASM out of their gameplan they could do so again and I have tried to play a little on OM "over" 2.5 goals at 8.0-9.0 , but my official selection is...... 1.5 units Marseille level ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Monaco: Subasic, Stekelenburg – Abdennour, Ab.Diallo, Fabinho, B.Lopez, Raggi – Bakayoko, Bahamboula, Dirar, Ferreira Carrasco, Moutinho, Ocampos, Ber.Silva, Ab.Thiam, Toulalan –Germain, A.Martial, L.Traoré.
Marseille: S.Mandanda, B.Samba – Aloé, B.Dja Djedje, Nkoulou, Fanni, Ben.Mendy, J.Morel – Imbula, Lemina, Romao, Thauvin – Batshuayi, Gignac, Boutobba, A.Ayew, Omrani, Payet.
Good Luck.
