I am not putting up any suggestions for today's games, we have two emails tomorrow, at 10.00 and 16.00 ( full schedule for the next five days is below ), the first will have 2-3 selections in and the follow up is very detailed, with a look at the Friday English League fixtures and the weekend gets even busier after that, so, a free Wednesday will probably serve us well.

 

I can discuss very briefly a longer term market, the Premier League title race looks done and dusted and Chelsea holding a six point lead, with a game in hand and no Champions League games to distract them, should be able to largely coast to first place, they will, however, have a big say in the other top placings with games against Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal. Their other six games are against teams with an average league placing of 15th and it is close to impossible to see them dropping enough points through those, to give any of the chasing pack too much encouragement. Not that there is not a lot for "the rest" still to play for.......

 

Second and third spots gain a place into the group stage of the Champions League, 4th to the playoff round, 5th and 6th will have to negotiate the Europa League, which for teams who will hope to compete for top 4 next season, is a bit of a poisoned chalice.
 

Liverpool looked to be coming with a perfectly times challenge, but their loss at Anfield to United immediately before the break was a killer blow and whilst they might still be able to force their way into 4th, it is hard to see them being able to pick up enough ground on all three of the clubs immediately above them, to challenge for second spot which is what I want to discuss today.
 

The difference between finishing second or third is minimal and if you offered third place now to City, United and Arsenal, I would be surprised if any of them turned you down, although publicly they would say differently. Fourth is less attractive, it means back to back playoff games in mid late August and is a mahjor disruption to the early part of the EPL season, but is , of course, hugely preferable to the alternative, which is missing out on the major european club competition altogether and for the big 4, that is unacceptable, especially for United, for whom it would be a second year running without Champions League football.
 

So, we have three teams, who look booked to finish top 4, although neither really wants to finish fourth, but "happy" with third. I would also argue that for Arsenal , who have not finished top 2 in a decade and United, in LVG's first season in charge and after finishing 7th in 2013/14, second place would be huge and a real target for both. For City, who have finished first twice in the last three seasons and who could be looking to replace Manuel Pellegrini, it probably doesn't mean as much, although in recent weeks talk as changed from "the Chilean coach is definitely on his way", to "he will stay as long as City finish second", that might motivate him of course, but if they are going to stick with Pellegrini, will it overly matter much if they are second or third in the cold light of day ? City supporters of course will not want to lose out, especially to United, but it is perhaps not as important for the hierarchy at the club. They are favourites to finish second and I accept that, have a couple of home "gimmes" to play, but are very short (too short) in the betting, have to travel to play Tottenham and United and have been in far and away the worst form of the trio over the last ten matches, averaging 1.2 points per game less than the Gunners over that period, which is a third of all games played. Arsenal have to also go to Old Trafford, play Liverpool and Chelsea and shoe horn in an FA Cup semi final. If we look back over 20 games, which is two-thirds of matches played so far, City have collected 41 points, Arsenal 43 and United, who started their season slowly, 46.
 

LVG always claimed that the squad he inherited was "unbalanced" and said it would take three months to sort out and for the players to learn his methods and in fairness to him,he looks to have been spot on the money and we have seen the best of United in their most recent starts.

 

Will tiredness play a part ? City have played 43 games this season, Arsenal a whopping 46 and United just 36 and it appears the lack of european competition is now working in their favour, they brushed aside what on the day was a very poor Tottenam team and then put in a fantastic performance at Anfield immediately before the break, a result they have had two long weeks to reflect upon and enjoy, that was incidently Liverpool's 48th start of the season,so they have played a third more games than United and the Merseysiders had played 36 ( same as Man U currently) before the end of January !
 

At Anfield, United really looked to have "got it", everyone looked comfortable in their position ( finally), they moved the ball quickly and pressed high up the pitch with seven United players spending more time in the opposition half in the opening 45 minutes, which , on the road at Liverpool, where the hosts have averaged 2.06 points before the break over the last two season, was very impressive, even more so as Liverpool came into the match having won six in a row in the league and unbeaten in the EPL since mid December.
 

United are at home to Villa at the weekend, City travel to Crystal Palace and then the two meet at Old Trafford, their positions could quickly be turned around and whilst I can accept City as favourites in the market with Chelsea, I feel the odds for United are too big ,offer value

and will give plenty of interest over the final 7-8 weeks of the campaign.
 

I will put this in blue type as I accept it might not be possible for everyone to play......1.5 units Manchester United in the market without Chelsea 7.0-9.0 general quote......even the lowest end is much higher than I could come close to making these odds. There is also 3.25-3.75 without both Chelsea and City which I also like of course, but marginally prefer the bigger odds as I feel they are likely to beat both or neither, but it is a solid alternative.
 

 

Please note, well, almost everything ! But especially the follow up email on Thursday, the early sending times on Friday and slightly later one on Monday.