Taken from today's newsletter ....
A hugely busy week ahead, which includes two J-League rounds and AFC Champions League, there are 13 emails scheduled for the next 7 days and some odd sending times, all of which are detailed below....
Tuesday 30/04 #1 email @ 09.30
Wednesday 01/05 #1 email @ 09.30
#2 email @ 14.00 Which will include a look at the L1 and L2 playoffs.
Thursday 02/05 #1 email @ 10.00
#2 email 16.00 This will cover the Friday morning J-League games.
Friday 03/05 #1 email @10.00
#2 email @15.00
Saturday 04/05 #1 email @10.00
# 2 email @13.00
Sunday 05/05 #1 email @10.00
# 2 email @ 13.00
# 3 email @ 16.00 Looking at the Monday morning J-league games.
As always , times are UK and early kick offs are usually covered in the first email and later fixtures/events in the follow up. You are right if you think that "only" totals 12 newsletters, today's is the other !
Very low profile Monday, but I will touch upon two matches....
Premier League: Aston Villa - Sunderland
The visitors need is not quite as great as Villa's now, they probably only need one more win at most and do have home games against both Stoke and Southampton next week. However, boss Paolo Di Canio will be eager to keep the momentum up and a televised match with a huge worldwide audience will be right up his strada ! His Villa counterpart Paul Lambert is calling this a "must win" fixture and I suppose that is true if they do not want to go to Wigan on the final day of the season needing a result, they go to Norwich on Saturday ( play Chelsea after that) and it is the two matches this week which will determine if they can go to the DW stadium in celebratory mood, or fighting for their PL life.
Villa have played some decent football since the turn of the year and move the ball around like a mid table team, defensively they are not so solid, the problem is that they look far better suited to playing on the road, where they can play to their strengths and hit teams on the counter, than at Villa Park, where the level of expectation is huge and they are forced to make the running. They have identical home and away records this season (4-5-8) and they have won just eight Premier Leagues starts on home soil in two seasons , that is a 22% win rate. This campaign they have beaten, QPR, West Ham United, Reading and Swansea, two of those will be playing second tier football next season and also in two of those, they had to come from behind. It is impossible not to see this being close tonight and equally hard to see Villa keeping the visitors out for 90 minutes. Lambert can call this "must win", but a point here and at Carrow Road on Saturday would leave matters in their own hands and give them a cushion over Wigan, who have still to go to WBA and Arsenal and play a distracting FA Cup final next month, personally, I would see every point now as one gained and not two lost.
Likewise for the Black Cats, a point would be very valuable, it would take them above Norwich and either the Canaries or Villa have to drop points at the weekend, as an Italian and this is meant as a compliment, Di Canio will have worked all that out. I have seen him in plenty of post match interviews and he always knows exactly what every other team has to do and their remaining fixtures. I think both will score and see 1-1 or 2-2 as the most likely scoreline. I will opt for 1 unit Villa- Sunderland draw 3.40 general quote.
Villa games have produced 37 goals in the last 15 minutes, to put that into some context, Manchester United have a reputation for late goals, their games have produced 11 fewer, of course, they are better defensively than Villa !
Ligue 2 : Sedan -Monaco
We have spoken about both of these teams a lot this season, Sedan are still alive and could close to within three points of survival with an "upset" win this evening and will have sat at home on Friday in a warm glow with the four teams immediately above them in the table all dropping points. I discussed them in some detail ahead of their last home game, a 4-1 defeat of Gazelec ....Sedan are themselves nine points from safety, but their situation in comparison looks rosy, this is a very good opportunity to close the gap, if they can win and several of the six teams who are only two points above the drop zone, drop points, it will be very much game on for them. They have fought hard over the last month , collecting two wins and two draws from their last six starts, scoring seven goals in their last four outings, the only one of which they lost was against highflying Guingamp, via a last minute winner. last week they drew 2-2 at Lens, where they were desperately unlucky, leading 2-0 and creating much the better of the chances, the hosts got back on level terms with a very dubious looking penalty and even then, Sedan, who refused to give up, were denied late by the woodwork. You can see very brief highlights of that match on .............
Rest of the notes are only available to subscribers.
Sedan : Perraud, Ramé - Bellaïd, Pogba, Boli, Pinteaux, Dielna, Makhedjouf, Le Bihan, Court, Kouamatien, Tchenkoua, Beziouen, Marcq, Ait Ben Idir, Diaby, Bongongui.
Monaco : Caillard, Sourzac, Subasic - Adriano, Kagelmacher, Medjani, Raggi, Tzavellas, Wolf, Coulibaly, Dirar, Ferreira Carrasco, Mendy, Ndinga, Obbadi, Ocampos, Germain, Rivière, Touré.
Hosts have conceded 44% of all their goals in the final 30 minutes of games, Monaco have scored 78% in the last hour and tend to finish each half strongly, scoring 17 times in the 15 minutes immediately before the break.
Good Luck.
12 more emails scheduled for this week alone, that's circa 30 full match/event previews, with at least three plannned "very strong" ( 1.75 unit selections) all at odds against and one at 3.0 +.To subscribe to the full service, take a look at our subscriptions page.