This match will be played at the Starfire Sports Complex in Tukwila, which is the venue Sounders usually use for their US Open Cup games and where they have already seen off PSA Elite, Portland Timbers and San Jose Earthquakes this season, albeit the last two after extra time and penalties respectively. The main stadium there is more homely venue than CenturyLink Field where Seattle enjoy such massive support, but it is an impressive complex containing 12 full size pitches and a huge indoor centre and it is not really true to consider this a "neutral" venue, as Seattle have their offices and training facilities here and the players probably spend far more time here than at CenturyLink.
Winners of this tie will meet Philadelphia Union in the final and Sounders are looking to continue their fine record in the competition, which they won three straight years from 2009-2011 and lost out in the final in 2012, they suffered a shock early defeat last season, but normal service has been resumed this season and having come this far, we can expect them to be treating tonight's game seriously. We can get very good indication of the starting line up tonight, by looking at how they approached their quarter final with Timbers last month, the match was played just four days before the two West Coast rivals met in the league and Sounders fielded nine starters in both games and 11 who played in the cup match got game time in the MLS fixture. So, very mininal rotation, one of which was forced on them by injury and I expect something similar this evening.
Both teams played on Sunday and each has a key MLS game this Saturday, so they will be mindful of that, but whereas Sounders have been at home for 10 days and incredibly, on the West Coast since June 30th, Fire will have had to travel across country for this and then back up to Montreal for another match in three days time ! That is Gruelling with a capital G even if they had been in top form and they have been far from that, although they have done reasonably well for us ( backing or opposing) and we were strongly behind them in their defeat of New York Red Bulls at the weekend ......
Fire are a team we tend to do well with, whether that be by betting for or against them and you can read previews of three recent games under the "good luck" sign off ( to read them now, see Sunday's #2 newsletter). Last of those was the 1-1 draw with Crew last weekend, where they let a first half lead slip after the break. They now desperately need that win and with three weeks until their next home game, I suspect they will be giving everything to ensure it comes this evening. They will be boosted by a terrific record in the series and haven't lost at home to NYRB in 14 starts going back almost a decade. They have already taken four points off the visitors this season, drawing 1-1 here and winning a wild shootout 5-4 in the Big Apple.
It is hard to put a finger on exactly what has gone wrong at Fire, they are not terrible and have only lost five times in league and cup this season, but they lack the oomph we saw in the second half of the last campaign and need a win to kick start something.
Key for me tonight is that Red Bulls arrive without both Jamison Olave and Matt Miazga, we have discussed Olave and his importance many times before and they miss his pace and composure, especially on the road, last week they managed to defeat Revolution without him, but it was in New York and Miazga was able to play in the middle of the backline at least in the first half. He was sent off just before the break and Red Bulls actually scored two goals to win from behind with just ten men, but now on the road, for 90 minutes without both is a massive ask. It appears that Damien Perrinelle's international clearance has come through and he might start, but the former Istres CB has not played since May and his former club conceded 13 in his last three starts. MLS football is played at high tempo and takes time to get used to and I doubt he is the man, at least right now, to come to their rescue. Alternatives would be very young options, a major change in formation, or someone playing out of position, which will also weaken them in other areas. This is a good opportunity for Fire, whether they can keep potent NY who have scored in 11 straight games out for 90 minutes is another matter entirely. However, three of those big offensive weapons for the visitors , Tim Cahill, Thierry Henry and Bradley Wright- Phillips took part in the All Star Game in Portland in midweek. Which meant that after playing last week with 10 men and TH was on the pitch for all 90 mins, BWP for 77, they then flew to the West Coast and back this last midweek.
There it was Red Bulls who were suffering with injury and travel fatigue, tonight Fire will lose Mike Magee who scored the winner there to suspension and whilst he has not been so potent this season, he has scored the only goals of the game in two of Fire's (just) four wins this MLS campaign and tonight they will almost certainly have to change formation, also, although they have not yet made the trip back, the four hour+ flight and two hour time change is not ideal with such a very quick turnaround.
Fire will go with 4-5-1 I am fairly sure, not only will that be easier to overcome the loss of Magee, but also to combat the offensive play of Sounders, who have been very narrow in recent starts, with an extra defensive midfielder. I am guessing that they will stick with that as long as they are all square and only open up once conceding. That was the case when they last played on the West Coast, they held out for 45 minutes to San Jose (see below) and then, after a goal just before the break, Earthquakes ran riot in the second period winning 5-1, that was also a quick turnaround game after a lenghty flight. I feel we might have a case of history repeating and f Sounders do edge ahead, I feel they might run away with it late on. This would make sense from a purely stats position, with an incredible 17 of Sounders 20 home goals in MLS coming after the break and Fire conceding 16 of 20 road goals in the final hour of games.
1.25 units Seattle Sounders -1 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
MLS: San Jose Earthquakes- Chicago Fire (written 23/07)
We last discussed Fire ahead of their US Cup win in Atlanta two weeks ago and those notes are reproduced below, they have since won in New England and then gone back to their very darwish ways with a 1-1 home result against Philadelphia Union on Saturday. Now they have to travel across country to play San Jose, but the quick turnaround perhaps favours them more than Earthquakes who have already done coast to coast both ways in the last 4-5 days, after playing in New York at the weekend. Teams are used to the heavy travel schedule in the MLS, but it is tough on both, especially the hosts, but their need is Great......with a capital G !
We also previewed Quakes last home game, an unlucky 2-1 defeat to DC United and the following day I wrote ....DC United goalkeeper Bill Hamid earned man of the match awards a couple of hours ago and with anyone else between the sticks, we might have found that 3-2 home win. San Jose dominated the second period and had 60% possession , 31 crosses (!), 83% passing accuracy and most importantly nine shots on target, of which Hamid saved seven. Earthquakes missed an "open" goal almost as time expired, the rebound was cleared off the line and their misery (and mine/ours) was complete.
They battled incredibly hard against Red Bulls, whom they had gifted a lead to and got their just reward with a late equaliser, afterwards coach Mark Watson said: “It should give us a good boost as we have been going through a rough patch of late. "We played well for stretches, especially in the first half." We had a bunch of chances early and probably deserved a couple of more goals,we pushed at the end and they got some chances as well. "Our spirit to come back and get the point is a big boost, but guys still want more, we really wanted the win."
SJE are getting there, Djalo, Shaun Francis (first start in 8 weeks) , Hernandez, Wondolowski and Salinas are back now, Steven Lenhart scored his first goal of the campaign and surely the results will come soon, this is not a bottom of the table team.
I suspect Fire will need at least two goals to get a result here and there have been 2-2 and 3-3 draws in their last five visits here, I see this very similar to the DCU game and will approach it the same way.
Very big game for the hosts, they desperately need the win and do not play for 10 days after this, so no point in leaving anything in the tank and their next two games, a visit from Conference leading Seattle Sounders and then trip to LA Galaxy, are not going to be easier and the pressure only greater.
1.25 units San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 units 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 "over" 2.5 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
