Saturday January 24th

 

Tennis and later football in the follow up newsletter @ 12.00 UK time today.

 

I have never really liked the 4th round of the FA Cup for some reason and today's ties make limited appeal and a combination of the weather and the loan situation which I touched upon last week, means the League 1 and 2 games are largely similarly unattractive today, so not really a typical mid season Saturday ......
 

 

FA Cup : Manchester City- Middlesbrough

 

We have done well with City to concede at home this season and took the Gunners to score two or more here just last week ....Plenty of entertainment in prospect here, the last h2h meeting here ended 6-3 and the reverse fixture at the Emirates 2-2 earlier this season and neither impress defensively, infact both are an accident waiting to happen at the back, but a pleasure to watch offensively. The Gunners have conceded nine in their last five away starts, City are without a cleansheet in five, including conceding two here to Burnley and Sunderland and one to Championship side Sheffield Wednesday. I previewed the game against the Black Cats on New Year's Day .....

City lost they way at home to Burnley on Sunday "throwing away" two points, they definitely missed the energy of James Milner after he went off around the hour mark and are short of striking options, but that has been the case for the last month or so and it has not overly harmed them, so that result might be just a minor blip. However, if it is not, Sunderland are not an easy team to breakdown once they get a toehold in a game. The Black Cats have come away from the Etihad with a point on two of their last three visits, posting 2-2 and 3-3 draws and have an incredible record this season of drawing 11 of 13 matches in which they have gone in level at half time. With City priced at 1.75-2.0 goal favourites to win this, if they go in at the break all square you see sure to still get a decent handicap start on the visitors (maybe + 1) at that stage and that is definitely a solid stats based option. However, I feel that the visitors will need a minimum one goal to get anything from this and that both to score 1.5 units 2.10 general quote is better value, but City have scored just one home goal inside the first 15 minutes all season and Sunderland conceded just one road goal inside ten and two inside 30 minutes, so you could hold off for odds of around 2.25 "in play" if you wished, this is the BT Sport live game and all markets will be traded in running, by most companies.  In those two previous h2h draws, only one of the ten goals came before the 32nd minute.

 

Hosts just look incredibly vulnerable at the back right now and teams are not coming to the Etihad with quite the same level of fear. You all know how highly I rate Boro, I expect them to be coming back here next season as an EPL team, it is all about promotion for them, but we can expect them to relax a little and just play their natural game and that is pretty good at it's best. They should have beaten Liverpool at Anfield (2-2) in the Capital One Cup earlier this season and I feel we will see a similar performance today . 5.0-6.0 for Boro to score twice (over 1.5) looks too big and if you can find it you could try 0.5 units, but "officially" 1.5 units both teams to score at a general quote of 1.90-2.0  looks far and away the best value on offer. City have scored in 24 of 25 FA Cup games and 6,000 away fans will ensure that the visitors keep going for 90 minutes regardless of the score.

 

A couple of games that make some appeal from a purely stats base.....

Championship: Watford- Blackpool....with City and the Bees meeting at Carrow Road and Bournemouth and Ipswich Town having dropped points in midweek, The Hornets will see this as a huge opportunity to further cement a top six place and close in on the automatic spots, they are a hugely ambitious club and will make it back to the EPl sooner rather than later. Watford are a little slow here through the first ten ninutes ( yet to score this season), but are strong (8-2 goals scored conceded ) through the next 20 minutes of games. Pool have conceded 15 of their 24 road goals before the break and are 0-0-10 when trailing at half time, but have taken points (well, a point) from 5 of the 6 games in which they have gone in level or ahead at half time, so pretty solid once they get a toehold into a game. If hosts are to win, it will probably come via an early lead. 1.5 units Watford -0.5 ball FH betting @ 1.90 asian line/Sportmarket this will be traded in running of course and should be an option through thos first 10 minutes when the Hornets are still working their way into the game and alternative is Watford-Watford HT/FT 1.95-2.05 general quote

 

FA Cup: Preston North End- Sheffield United.......PNE have collected a whopping 20 points more than United before the break,the visitors are 2-15-7 in the first half through which they have scored just five goals, they are bound to be feeling the effects of a Capital One Cup semi final at Tottenham in midweek and could again be sluggish out of the blocks this afternoon.....1.25 units Preston -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket first half betting. However, they are a cup tie specialist team and used to bouncing back and don't rule out a strong finish from them and the Blades have scored 12 of 16 away goals in the last 30 minutes of games. If United are trailing after the hour mark, we could look to back them at that stage, first asian quote above 2.0 and as long as we are 11v 11 , again 1 unit.
 

 

League 1: Colchester United- Leyton Orient...... The O's have been strong on the road in recent seasons and are better through the first half than the second this campaign. United are 1-5-6 at home before the break , collecting a total of 20 first half points in all games, Orient are 5-5-3 on the road before half time and earning 34 points in total before the break. Hosts have conceded a L1 high 11 home goals between the 16th-45th minute. 1 unit Leyton Orient to win the first half 3.20-3.30 general quote, level ball at 1.90-1.94 on the asian line is an option of course.

 

Championship: Norwich City-Brentford

 

Previews of the last two Brentford games can be read under the "good luck" sign off. The win over Brighton was hard fought, but in truth, they could/should once again have scored another couple of goals and things have not been falling for them in front of goal, they missed 2-3 absolute sitters , worst of which was Jon Toral rounding the keeper and then getting the ball caught inbetween his feet, with a open goal about a metre in front of him ! On the plus side, Andre Gray whom we did well following earlier in the season, scored his first goal in four, after seven in eight previously and having missed a host over those interim three games and like most strikers being streaky once he gets one, we can make a case for him being due again today. At the back, goalkeeper David Button is looking immense right now, playing with huge confidence and just doesn't look like letting one in. Brighton gave the form a boost by getting back to winning ways immediately and beating highflying Ipswich Town in midweek.
 

This is a similar game to last week, in that City are a big club at this level, playing in front of packed houses each week, albeit with a stronger squad than the Seagulls, but not by much, Brighton are much better than the league table suggests and a top half finish probably awaits them. Once again, the Bees have been underestimated by the oddsmakers and I see no reason to desert them and having beaten the Seagulls and Bluebirds on the road recently, Canaries will be another one for the ornithologistic visitors  ! The hosts are one of just two teams to have won at Griffin Park this season, it was a comprehensive 3-0 win, but Brentford were on top for significant periods and after falling behind were denied a clear penalty which everyone in the stadium saw apart from the referee, City scored the second whilst the Bees were still protesting, which of course is unprofessional, but by then it was game over. That was one of several decisions which went against them that night, they are not a team to overly focus on things like that, but the manager, who is always very gracious to the opposition and several players have mentioned it recently, it obviously still rankles and I do suspect they feel that there is a score to settle. Since that day the Bees have earned eight more points than City and have won as many road games as the hosts have at home, the Canaries have been scoring freely recently, with a whopping 14 goals in their last three home starts and are unbeaten under new boss Alex Neil. However, the honeymoon period is over for him now and coming from the SPL, he has no experience of English football for more than a decade and the Championship is a division where a little of that goes a very long way. Also, they have conceded in 12 of 13 home starts, two or more in three of their last five, can be far too gung ho at times and Brentford have the pace to exploit this on the break.
 

The Bees seem very likely to score, they have done so in their last 14 starts and City "always" concede at home, the visitors also have increased offensive options with young striker Christopher Long having signed a loan deal from Everton and he will almost certainly be used off the bench this afternoon. Cardiff City, Brighton and Reading have all scored two here revently and circa 3.0-3.20 for Brentford to do likewise, seems too big (0.75 units), especially with City and the Royals being very poor travellers and the trio only posting the same number of away wins between them as the Bees. For my "official " selection, it just has to be 1.5 units Brentford +0.75 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

In terms of "jackpot" hunting today, how about the double result  Preston HT-draw FT at 14.0-17.0 (0.5 units) which makes a lot of appeal for the reasons outlined above.

 

The Bees won that 3-2 a scoreline which was flattering in the extreme to Brighton who were outplayed for most of the game, we also now know that Jota is a superstar in the making, a player who will do something every game, which five minutes later you will realise you still have your mouth wide open in amazement at. He is one footed, the right is only really for standing on, but the left will leave you weeping with joy and defenders sobbing with frustration !
 

I previewed last week's game at home to Rotherham United and those notes are reproduced in full under the "good luck" sign off. That was very far from a vintage Bees performance, but was all about the result after a bit of a blip. They definitely missed Alan Judge who is the midfield dynamo who kinds of drives everything along in a team which likes to play at a high tempo, he might be out for a couple of weeks, Jonathan Douglas plays a similar key role in defensive midfield and he was very subdued through the first 45 minutes. It was kind of like the engine was running , but stuck in first gear. J-Do picked up after the break and there was a big improvement when Jon Toral came off the bench, Toral is on a season long loan from Arsenal and was previously at Barcelona, he is only 19yo and is going to be a very good footballer , can spot a killer pass and might thrive still further whilst Judge is out. By the way, the Bees are building ties with the Catalan giants, I am aware that some people might view that as unlikely in the extreme, but Warburton and Benham know them through the Next Gen series, the youth team has already been out to play against Barcelona this season and don't rule out a visit from the first team to open the new Brentford stadium !
 

Anyway, in the preview from last week, I spoke about the FA Cup game with Brighton which was played earlier this month and where the Bees battered the Seagulls 0-2 !! In all seriousness , if it had been a boxing match, the referee would have stopped it at half time to save Brighton further punishment, Brentford feel they are the better team and they would really like to win this for the owner, for the reasons outlined above. Brighton have won three in a row, but Charlton and Fulham are struggling and we have already discussed the other and at the AmEx they have won just 2 of 12 starts this season and might be distracted by a FA Cup visit from Arsenal next week. The visitors will have massive support at the game, 2,800 "officially" and several hundred in the home ends and the club and supporters are really pumped for this game and I expect a "result" ....1.5 units Brentford +0.25 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

If you can find it, anything above 2.85 for the Bees to score twice (over 1.5 goals ...1 unit) looks good, the number of golden opportunities they created in the two previous meetings was scary and they have 11 goals in their last five away starts. There is up to 3.10 on offer in a place.
 

Championship: Brentford - Rotherham  (written 10/01)
 

I cannot hide my enthusiasm for the Bees today and I expect them to win this reasonably comfortably, there are no "easy" games in the Championship, but I do feel the hosts match up incredible well against the Millers, were very easy winners in the reverse fixture, traditionally improve in the second game against teams by virtue of their very stong analysis team and United have also lost heavily at home to Middlesbrough and Bournemouth, two teams who play a similar style to the mighty Bees. Ahead of their defeat to Boro at the start of November I wrote ....I admit that I have not seen a lot of them(Rotherham), but what I have seen has not been good and they looked very poor defensively against Brentford/Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham, they did avoid defeat in two of those, quite how they beat Wolves even Sherlock Holmes would be unable to work out and they could/should have been three down at the break, but found a way to win 1-0. My feeling is that they have overachieved a little and are fortunate to have 17 points on board. They are hard working and fairly well organised, but this is a match teams with promotion aspirations and that is Boro, simply have to be looking for maximum points and there is a big gulf in class between the two squads. That is highlighted by Richie Smallwood, who was allowed to leave Boro, as he would not have even made the bench most games, becoming a regular since joining the Millers.
 

The Millers have won just once in eleven starts since that day and boss Steve Evans spent much of his post match interviews following the 5-1 home defeat to Bournemouth last week, crying about being one of the "have nots" in terms of playing budget, in a Championship full of "have plenties", well, the boot has been on the other foot for the last two seasons with his team one of the money clubs in L1 and L2 and he should have kept quiet. It smacks of sour grapes and he will get a "welcome" from the home supporters today (he was never the most popular of visiting managers anyway, which is the understatement of the day). His mood cannot have improved much this week as Alex Revell who is described as a "legend" on club forums has left to join Cardiff City and now it appears two other senior and key players may be on their way out and this is a club in a bit of a mess right now. Edit: Evans is bringing in players too, but nothing to write home about and this "transition" might take time .
 

Brentford appear to have gone off the boil a little over the holiday period, ahead of the home loss to Ipswich Town on Boxing Day I wrote ......

 

Sign of a good team is how they bounce back from a defeat and after five straight wins and then an unlucky loss at Huddersfield Town, the Bees have taken six points and scored six goals against Blackburn Rovers and Cardiff City and do look a team absolutely full of goals right now.
 

We won with our bet on that day, but the Bees lost 4-2, they were caught cold and early,  Town were the better team on the day and I have no problem with that, it is a learning process and they will have learned an awful lot from that and the same mistakes will not be made again. They have subsequently lost 2-1 away to Wolves and 2-0 at home to Brighton in the FA Cup. They were far and away the better team in both games and on another day would have won both easily, The first Wolves goal was a metre offside and came about 15 seconds after Brentford had hit the woodwork, I swear there was a 15 minute spell when the hosts touched the ball no more than four times and the possession stats were a joke. Last week the Bees could/should have been three up at the break, should have won by five, missed chance after chance, before conceding twice in stoppage time.If they play at 80% of that level, they will win today.
 

Bees have signed Lewis Macleod from Glasgow Rangers, who is said to be one of the best young players in Scotland, he will not be up to fitness levels for a couple of weeks, but he, along with  two more "big" promised signings for this window, are going to further  increase already stiff competition for starting places and we can look forward to a very solid 2015, as long as the Bees get back on track quickly and that really means winning this afternoon.