This was sent to subscribers yesetrday @ 09.00 UK time, today's also covers the same three sports with six previews and suggested bets.
Next newsletter will be sent on Saturday @ the standard time of 10.00 UK time.
International Friendlies:
It kind of feels that the countdown to Russia really begins today and we have two big players clashing in Dusseldorf, where Germany do not often play, just 83 days before the World Cup starts, with both teams defending long unbeaten records and perhaps playing with the bigger picture firmly in mind. The hosts are unbeaten in 21 games and head coach Joachim Löw likes to experiment with both line ups and tactics in friendlies, but with only four games remaining and two in the next four days, I doubt there will be too much tinkering with formation.
Spain have not lost in 16 and their competitive side and refusal to lose came to the fore in that friendly with England at Wembley where they came back from two goals down entering the 90th minute to force a draw and they have drawn three of five friendlies (all either 2-2 or 3-3) and whilst they do not like the taste of defeat, they do play a more open style in these games. Germany have likewise drawn their last four friendlies, including 2-2 with France and the stalemate and that scoreline makes quite a lot of appeal, with both also having midweek games against huge South American opposition , Brazil and Argentina respectively, where there might be more to learn for the summer in terms of (slightly) less well known opponents. We all know the quality these two possess and expect it to cancel each other out, with both teams on the scoresheet, 2-2 draw is attractive at anything above 13.0, but I will go with.......
1.25 units Germany-Spain draw 3.30-3.40 general quote.
Turkey-Republic of Ireland
Turkey are not known for their great form in friendlies and they traditionally and quite rightly give them little importance, but there is every reason to believe they might be a little more up for the game today. The rebuilding process under veteran head coach Mircea Lucescu has begun and he will not wish to end his last position in football on a sour note. He took charge in August last year and could not turn things around in term of World Cup qualification with four games left to play in what was a strong group. Lucescu has a lot of work on his hands, especially defensively and his team have conceded 10 goals in their last four starts, at least two in each and three at home to both Iceland and Albania, teams, like the Republic of Ireland, who are not exactly known for their offensive prowess. Lucescu knows it is time to rebuild and big names like Arda Turan and Burak Yilmaz have been omitted and five players with over 350 caps between them have not featured since the loss to Iceland and the backline additionally revamped since the Albania debacle which was their last start and where they could not beat or even draw with a team reduced to ten men for an hour.
He has gone with a far more youthful squad looking not just towards the next Euros, but the 2022 World Cup with eight aged 22 or younger (just four in the Euro 2016 squad in that age group). Abdulkadir Omur , Enes Ünal (Villarreal) , Cengiz Ünder (Roma) and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Milan) amongst others are seen as rising stars and they will get the opportunity to shine now , but the backline needs time and is in transition/ a work in progress. BTW and off at a tangent, Milan are 13-1-2 this season in Serie A when Çalhanoğlu plays an hour or more, the two losses were to Juve and Roma.
Ireland also missed out on the World Cup and were a little humiliated in the playoffs against Denmark and ahead of the leg in Dublin I wrote .........
The final UEFA World Cup qualifier takes place in Dublin between the Republic of Ireland and Denmark, both have been involved in some low scoring games recently and that is almost always the case with the Irish, the problem is that they have little by way of Plan B when you have to step up and win games rather than settle for a point and, any goal at all for the Danes is going to make things very difficult in the extreme for the hosts. Denmark are on a long unbeaten run (11 games) and have lost only lost twice in two years, they have scored in 5 of 6 on the road and in Christian Eriksen have the only really top class international player on show this evening. He was head and shoulders above the rest in Copenhagen at the weekend and he had seven goals in seven competitive starts for his nation in build up to that. The Tottenham player got very little space to do much on Saturday, but Ireland need to try and find a way to score this evening, unless 0-0 is the extent of their ambition (it could be !) and that should eventually free up a little more space for him, or team mates.
The Irish have played six competitive home games in the last two years, scored five goals in total and won two, beating Georgia and Moldova ranked 107 and 167 by FIFA respectively, but drawing or losing to opposition ranked between 14-39 (Denmark are #19). The better teams seem to know how to set up against the Irish now in Dublin and the hosts do not have the offensive flair to break stronger opposition down when the pressure in on them to do so.
The Danes won that 5-1. Ireland have a very inexperienced squad currently, with 15 players having made single digit appearances, 11 with one or none. Very few are Premier League regulars , although all but one play in England. Some, like Alan Judge of Brentford cannot even get a start for a Championship team, I am sure he will not play , but is a good example of what the Irish are picking from. Judge has not started a game in two years, missing almost all with injury and seen just 151 minutes of game time since his return, where he is not even certain of a place on the bench for the Bees. This must be the youngest Irish squad in recent history with seven players aged 31-37 who were in the squad for the Denmark game all being left out and some younger, albeit less experienced and it has to be said less talented, coming in and they will need a little time.
1.25 units Turkey -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
WTA: Miami Open:
Donna Vekic - Elena Vesnina
I sided with Elena Vesnina twice at Indian Wells backing her at big odds to beat CiCi Bellis and then to take a set from Angelique Kereber and my notes on both were included in the latter ............
I spoke about Vesnina being defending champion here and taking this event very seriously (arriving early) and in many ways, basking in her time left as title holder, ahead of her opening game versus Catherine Bellis on Saturday ..........
Elena Vesnina has spent most her career as a double specialist and a very good one, but had a breakout singles year of 2016 and into early 2017 lifting her ranking to a career high 13th in her 31st year as she won Indian Wells 12 months ago. That was all a bit freakish, her ranking is now down to a still decent 24, but will tumble this fortnight as she is highly likely to repeat, but you have to feel she will be motivated by a return to the scene of her greatest singles triumph (she has been in 14 grand slam doubles finals) and showed her best form for some time with wins over Peng and Ostapenko in Dubai last time out. She has really struggled with taller players (1.78m+ ) over the last year or so, something I discussed at the Aussie Open where she lost to Naomi Osaka and she seems to have run into a lot of these in recent months. That is not an issue today CiCi Bellis is 1.7m and of slight build, but almost limitless potential and this feels like it will be her breakthrough year, but everything has a price (or odds) and it feels like hers are too short today, she has been made a very skinny favourite and I have seen a few holes in her form, especially on home soil, where she is 4-5 since the start of 2017 including defeats to Broady, Flipkens and Hibino. Special week for Vesnina, she had her mural unveiled at the stadium a couple of day ago ( see below) and has treated this tournament very seriously , arriving a week early and practicing daily on these courts, win or lose, odds are too big.
She defied those odds of 2.80 to win in three sets and is now priced at over 4.50 to beat Angelique Kerber and that just feels wrong and also too big !
Kerber looks far happier on court again now and I spoke how she struggled as #1 at the Aussie Open where she made the semis.........
Angelique Kerber was not comfortable with the #1 crown and seems far happier a little out of the limelight and is clearly on her way back, she won Sydney, beating Safarova, Venus Williams, Cibulkova, Giorgi and Barty, a very good set of scalps. She has not been troubled here so far and can improve her ranking by winning a couple of more rounds, she lost in R4 12 months ago, after winning this in 2016 and has made the last 16 in 5/6 fast court slams, making three finals and winning two. She is 13-5 in the last six years versus players over 1.83m tall ranked outside the top 20.
Kerber also had to deal with the "29" thing last year, she turned 30 yesterday and that will almost always signal an upturn in form for sportsmen once the milestone is passed and they realise that life carries on . Sharapova has not played a top 30 ranked leftie for 27 months. She actually has a good record against those who play the "wrong" way round, but Kerber should have too much game at this stage and Sharpova will have to step up majorly to win this.
She played last night, well, two sets, with her match held over from Saturday, starting a set down to Ekaterina Makarova she won a wild encounter in three , a match where neither could hold serve and we saw 15 breaks and approaching 40 break points. She has had 24 hours less recovery time, but that would be less of a concern than those serving issues and the fact that Kerber too often seemed to play into Makarova's hands and set up her opponent for her favoured down the line winner.
These two met here 12 months ago with Vesnina winning 3&3 and Kerber having, like yesterday, terrible issues with her second serve (winning 23%) and her Russian opponent being super solid. I just wonder about Kerber here at Indian Wells given those two matches and she is 5-5 on these courts against top 50 ranked players and her wins included Govortsova, McHale and Wickmayer, not exactly top tier players . I will suggest Vesnina to take a set as the best value, but feel 4.50+ is just wrong .
Vesnina lost 7-5 6-2, it was much closer than that sounds and she actually served for the first set, so we were a little unlucky. In some ways the pressure is now off the Russian a little, the Indian Wells points are lost and she has none to defend in Miami. She will have spent more time in Miami than she did with the quick transition 12 months ago and she won four (two qualifiers ) here in 2016 beating Venus Williams and losing to Joanna Konta in a third set tiebreak.
Donna Vekic has more ability than her ranking and recent performances suggest, but she is not in great form that is for sure, she is 5-12 since late September , with 5 of her last 6 defeats coming in two sets and with fairly minimal resistance. The Croatian is 9-36 lifetime on this surface versus top 50 ranked players and only two of those wins came v top 25 players. Vekic did beat Camila Giorgi in R1 but before we rush to take too much heart from that, we have to accept that the Italian was awful and would have lost to any top 200 player, maybe 500 ! She won just 3 points on serve in the first set and only 28% on return through the whole game and if you can't serve or return the ball, it is hard to win !
The two actually met here a few years back, Vesnina won 4&2 and although Vekic was only a baby at the time (16?) it is good to have in the memory bank.
1.25 units Elena Vesnina to win 2-0 sets 2.34 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Jelena Ostapenko -Timea Babos
Jelena Ostapenko (pictured) served us very well at Roland Garros last year and she is great fun to watch on any surface, she always goes for her shots and can be unplayable when things click, but her second serve needs a lot of work. But maybe we can let that slide today as we get odds against and I have her as favourite to beat Timea Babos who is a bit of a "flat track bully" in that she is 24-26 in the last 12 months, 14-4 v opponents ranked 101 +, but 10-22 v those inside the 100 (68-122 career) and 3-14 against top 50 (27-79 career).With lifetime records backing up those numbers. In career Premier tournaments like this, she is 0-11 against top 10 players winning just four sets. Babos did beat Mona Barthel 7-6 6-3 in Round 1, but the German was wasteful, winning just 2 of 11 break points.
Ostapenko is 81-49 on hardcourts versus non top 20 players .
Babos is a world class doubles player (top 5), but whilst she has been as low as 25 in singles, she has to play above herself to stay around 45-50 and Ostapenko is a couple of levels above that. I also expect the performances of Osaka and Kasatkina, who are her age group, at Indian Wells to inspire/motivate and she will surely want to find some real form before the clay season starts and the build up to Roland Garros in many ways begins today.
1.5 units Jelena Ostapenko to beat Timea Babos 2.10 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play :
Today sees the completion of the round robin group stage, the 16 section winners will progress to the knockout stage, with two rounds played both Saturday and Sunday. All group play matches are limited to 18 holes with one point awarded for a win and a half point for a halved match. Ties for first place in a group are broken by a sudden-death playoff, beginning on hole 1.
Dustin Johnson- Kevin Kisner
Ross Fisher -Matt Kuchar
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas-Francesco Molinari
OMG, I wish I had more time.
I just do not get some of these odds !
Kisner 2.45/ Fisher 2.139/ Aphibarnrat 2.59/ Molinari 2.75 are all too big, a couple ridiculously so IMO. All odds with Pinnacle (draw/tie no bet).
Johnson, Rahm and Thomas and Kuchar are world class golfers, but the first two are already eliminated and have only pride to play for today, Thomas has shown some suspect form in this event before.
All european golfers grow up playing a lot of match-play golf and Fisher is a former winner of the Volvo Match play. I will eliminate him first as he is the lowest price and Kuchar is a former winner of this event and because I have to start somewhere.
The three remaining outsiders will all at least qualify for a playoff spot for the knockout stage with a win.
Justin Thomas did us a big favour recently and he could win today and the event, but Molinari is a very good "in contention" golfer , who almost always raises his level in situations like these and there are some notes on him below the "good luck" sign off, He shot 67 there in teh final major of last year to finish in a tie for second behind winner Thomas who shot a Sunday 68, so no reason for these odds today.
Below the Molinari notes are some on Kisner from last Spring, he is a confident guy and has the aura of a star from his junior/college days see below and should be ideally suited to this format.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is hugely underrated, he has won 3 of his last 10 starts albeit at a very low level , but was 5th at the WGC Mexico shoting a second lowest round of the day 65 in R4, going low in very exalted company in the heat of battle. Like all Thai golfers when he gets the chance Aphibarnrat is super hungry ( you would not know to look at him !) to succeed and he also has a Euro tour match-play title to his name, his odds are a joke.
1.5 units Kevin Kisner to beat Dustin Johnson 2.45 Pinnacle.
1.25 unit Francesco Molinari to beat Justin Thomas 2.75 Pinnacle.
1.75 units Kiradech Aphibarnrat to beat Jon Rahm 2.59 Pinnacle.
If you do not want to bet 4.5 units ( I never mind losing on such quotes, but that is me !), I would suggest something smaller on Kiradech Aphibarnrat , most other companies have odds, shop around. There is quite a bit of leeway with all of these, I am not sure that Rahm/Johnson should even be favourites.
Good Luck.
Looking at some other markets
Francesco Molinari is a player we rarely mention, but when we do, it is when he is going well in a big event and he is fully capable of a big finish in a world class field, at the 2016 Players Championship I wrote .......
One other player to mention is Francesco Molinari, who is in 5th, he is not a golfer you would back to win too often, but once he has a big cheque in sight he is very dogged and ahead of the final round at the Arnold Palmer earlier this season I wrote ......
I cannot put it up as an official bet, as it is not available in too many places, but if you wanted another interest, 5-6 companies are offering a top ten market and Francesco Molinari is attractively priced at 4.0, he is always more comfortable from off the pace and is currently in a tie for 13th just one stroke off a share of 9th, he seems sure to go well this afternoon. He has played Bay Hill three times previously (34-5-17) he played even better than his T5th in 2014 indicates and did not get the reward his golf deserved that year, he played solidly over the weekend in 2015, especially across the back nine holes and did so again yesterday shooting a nice 69 and something similar today might well be enough to finish 10th or better, depending on the weather.
He did again shoot 69 on the Sunday and finished in a share of 9th. He has played decently in three US starts since and was T6th here in 2014 and he has to go well this afternoon. Often underrated he is a nice 2.20-2.25 to finish top 5 ( retain his position) and if you backed him at the AP, you should defenitely look to get involved again. You could also look at him in other markets, match betting , without Day (each way) etc.
He finished T7 there and the beauty with a player like Molinari is that top ten in a major for him is an achievement. something which continues to open doors and not to be sniffed at when the winning chance has gone. He has already finished top 14 eight times this season on the PGA Tour, never better than 6th, but banking almost $2m and that is very nice work if you can get it. He is always underated and currently T7th, he feels good value at odds against to finish in the top ten. He is ranked 7th on tour for R4 scoring.
1.75 units Francesco Molinari to finish top 10 2.10-2.20 general quote.
Another player I really like the look of is Kevin Kisner, he was runner up here in 2015, losing in a playoff to Jim Furyk, but he has since made the big breakthrough winning the RSM Classic on a course with many similarities to Harbour Town. Kisner is a local lad and was born in Aiken, South Carolina, about two hours drive from Harbour Town and he will feel very much at home here, especially after that deep run . He went 2-1-9-5 in consecutive early season starts last year and tired badly here after playing very nicely for 37th at Augusta on a course that doesn't really suit him (but which he has always dreamed of playing) , he found some end of year form, including a 10th at the Wyndham (see Donald) where he shot a Sunday 63.
This year he was 11th-2nd in his two stroke play starts and won matches at the Match Play in build up to Augusta where he again made the cut and this year the Masters will have not taken so much out of him and he would have played very much with this week in mind, after his winning chance had gone.
Kisner has played the course at Hilton Head since his junior days and it sets up perfectly for his game, he felt confident he would win in 2015 and it took 74 holes for a dogged Jim Furyk to beat him and he went close again a few weeks later at the Players, which is also a Pete Dye designed course, he shot 67-67 on Friday-Saturday to get into contention and on Sunday made birdies on 16 and 17 and almost again on the last which would have given him the win. Instead he was in a three hole aggregate playoff with Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia, he got it down to just him and Fowler, but lost out at the 4th extra hole. That was his big moment and from then on he realised he could compete with the best . Golf Channel analyst Frank Nobilo said “If any player watched this today, I’ll tell you what, not one of them wants to be in a playoff with Kevin Kisner going forward. “He flat-out said, ‘I don’t care who you are, I’m going to take you on.’”Johnny Miller, on NBC said Kisner was a “star in the making.”
Kisner has already been a star, right through his youth and college days and he was Georgia’s first four-time All-American and everything had come rather (too) easy all the way up to the PGA Tour and then he hit a wall and it was only at the third time of trying to establish himself that things clicked and he felt he could be competitive, at the Players he went a step further and knew he could win. Now that the breakthrough has come, he can be a multi winner and Harbour Town already owes him one, win #2 should have come at last month's Arnold Palmer where he finished runner up after playing the back 9 in +2 (-7 for the first three days), losing by a stroke to Marc Leishman. He is ranked third for strokes gained tee-to-green, can putt better than most of those high up in those rankings and this course plays to all those strengths.
