Sunday's full clubgowi newsletter ..............
Aug 27, 2018
A rare chance below to read a full clubgowi newsletter with yesterday's notes covering football from Japan and MLS, plus golf, 6,600 words total which cost new subscribers 2.7 euros, old timers about 1.5 euros !
Sunday August 26th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Monday.
Japan: J-League 1:
Nagoya Grampus - Urawa Reds
Nagoya Grampus are on fire, when these two last met, in Saitama on July 18 (just 39 days ago), Urawa won 3-1 and that left Nagoya stranded at the foot of JL1 nine points from safety, having won just twice and scored 15 goals. They have won their last five , scoring 14 (also conceding in 4) and came into this weekend in 14th, three points clear of the drop zone with a game in hand over the bottom three ! I doubt they are going to change their approach anytime soon and they will sure be looking to see just how far this run can take them, big money signing Jo (yes, it is he !) has 13 goals for the campaign and will doubtless have his eye on the golden boot,with only Patric of leaders Sanfrecce above him on the scoring list, albeit by four goals.Both team and player will be up for this you feel.
Urawa have had a strange and very disjointed campaign and I spoke about the possible reasons back in April...........
It feels like a changing of the guard in JL1 with two giants in Gamba and Urawa struggling. Reds finished 7th last season and are currently bottom three, over the last 50 weeks they are 9-8-15 which equates to 37 points over a full season ( we are only two games shy) and good for 14th in 2017 and would have got you relegated in earlier seasons. Now, they did win the Champions League last year and I accept that was a distraction, but league form had already fallen away and only a (usual, at the time) weak showing from Kawasaki Frontale ( where they could only lose out by concededing three goals in 20 minutes !) allowed them to progress in the last eight. The truth is that this match is priced mainly on reputation and the huge support enjoyed by Urawa and not much we have seen domestically in the last year. They could not defend their AFC CL title, holders do not get an automatic spot and I suspect that has not helped the mood at the club, as this probably feels like a disappointment and it is probably difficult to raise levels for bread and butter games. They did win last week, their first start after head coach Takafumi Hori was dismissed, but it was a hard fought win over an overachieving, prior to that, Vegalta Sendai and the performance was not great and there were still crowd protests at the end of the game.
Since writing those notes they have gone 7-6-4 across exactly half a season, that equates to 54 points over 34 games, good enough for 7th last year which incidently was where they finished, they are currently 9th, would move up to 8th with the win and it is hard not to see them of being around that level. However, they are still only six points adrift of what is likely to be a Champions League place and we can expect them to gamble for the win. They are wildly inconsistent, last three road games featured a loss to a bottom three team, 4-1 win at leaders Sanfreece and 3-3 draw with Shimizu S-Pulse last week ! The win in Hiroshima highlights what they are capable when it all clicks.
H2h wise, the last 10 meetings have averaged 3.7 goals , with 1.8 before the break, at least one in each first half.
1.75 units "over" 3 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Sagan Tosu -Gamba Osaka
In general terms these two are, like Nagoya (see above) much improved and have given themselves a survival chance, I spoke about the changes both had made on the first day of this month............
Gamba:
Gamba are having a nightmare season in JL1 and will need to up their game to get anything out of this and close in on the four points they are currently away from survival. However, they are in the last eight of the League Cup, having knocked Jubilo Iwata out over two legs in the playoff round, winning here in Shizuoka 3-2 and have a new head coach and one who the players like and have full respect for and, who knows how the club operate, Tsuneyasu Miyamoto stepping up from the U23 team to replace Levir Culpi. The new boss was born in Osaka Prefecture, spent 14 years as a player at Gamba, time in Europe which most Japanese footballers dream of and 71 times for his country and has been working with the youngsters for a couple of seasons. He took charge a week ago and got an immediate response from his players who battled back from a goal down to share the points with Kashima Antlers who had just refound their own form, that was the first time in ten occasions that Gamba had fallen behind and not lost. Antlers had scored 22 goals (!) in their previous five starts, including three in a six goals thriller away to Jubilo and Gamba restricted then to just two attempts from inside the penalty box, so, quite a bit for one of the nation's biggest clubs to take from that and I suspect the mood is intense, but also a little lighter on the Gamba training ground this week. They have averaged 1.7 goals per game on their last ten trips to Jubilo who have failed to score in their last three. Miyamoto knows what makes the club tick, their philosophy and I expect him to be able to get enough out of this still talented squad who are comfortable on the ball to survive and they can start with a point or better today.
Sagan:
Sagan are 17th five points from safety, BUT have made two eye catching signings to try and address goalscoring issues, bringing in Fernando Torres from Atletico Madrid and Mu Kanazaki from Kashima Antlers, where he scored 7 in 16 starts in a poor (by normal sky high standards) 2018 so far for the Ibaraki club, with 12 and 5 assists from 30 appearances last season, including 2 and 1 against Shimizu. They both made their debuts last weekend in a 0-0 draw with Jubilo Iwata, so no immediate scoring contribution, but Sagan posted greatly improved numbers (attempts, especially inside the box and on target) in two games last week and it is surely only a matter of time before one or both of these click and the visitors have made a real statement of intent about their issues. Tosu is an odd choice for Torres, a small city on Kyushu, Japan's westernmost main island and 1,100 km from Tokyo and close to the Korean peninsula, but he seems committed to the project, can make a huge impact here and has already learned some Japanese. Kanazaki only joined late last week and would have had little time on the training ground with Torres or other team mates and everything should be a little more in sync now .
They are both still bottom three, but 1 and 2 points respectively from safety and with Nagasaki now bottom and looking doomed.
Obviously both teams are more confident and can face the final 10 games after today with hope, almost regardless of result this "morning" with Shimizu, Shonan and Yokohama looking increasingly vulnerable. Despite which, these two still make the two struggling teams criteria which usually produces goals, especially at this stage of the season and whomever falls behind will gamble big time almost immediately and this fixture has a history of goals with the last six meetings all producing 3+ .
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
Vissel Kobe- Yokohama F.Marinos
Very briefly, you (should) all know by now about the tremendous potential at Vissel Kobe and their desire to make an impact in Asia...............
Over the last two seasons Vissel Kobe are the team I have discussed more than any other in Japan, I have spoken of them as having ambition and big potential and that money is not really an issue. They proved that with first the signing of Lukas Podolski and now , with the pre WC addition of Andres Iniesta that has gone up another two levels or maybe more. When the move was first mooted I did not consider it far fetched given the fact Kobe’s owner Hiroshi Mikitani is also CEO and founder of giant company Rakuten who are also Barcelona’s main sponsor. His stated aim is to not only raise the profile of Vissel, but Japanese and Asian football in general, with Kobe as the number one club. It doesn’t matter when Iniesta makes his debut , his influence on Kobe and the game in this part of the world started the moment he put pen to paper.
All those Champions League ambitions we also discussed are now in the one basket after their midweek Emperor's Cup elimination and they have to find a way to finish top 3-4 in JL1. They are currently in 5th within four points of third, but only four ahead of the team in 10th and they can afford no more slip ups and that should really go double here in Kobe.
Yokohama are themselves hungry sitting just a single spot above the drop zone, which was not what they planned after finishing 5th last season, this time last year they were 3rd and have actually scored six more goals this time around, but also conceded 23 (over a goal per game +) more, so we all know where the issues lie. They are simply seeing out games poorly, especially on the road where they have a +5 first half goal difference, which tumbles to -7 after the break.
1.5 units Vissel Kobe -0.5 ball in running @ 2.20 at anytime before the start of the second half as long as we are still playing 11 v 11 OR immediately if they fall behind at the first line quoted at the same 2.20 + odds.
MLS:
Portland Timbers- Seattle Sounders
A week is a long time in sport and politics, let alone two months and on June 30th I previewed the meeting between these two in Seattle and was firmly in the Timbers camp .........
These two rivals (270km apart) met in the first derby of the season in Portland last month with Timbers scoring late, the only goal in a game low on scoring chances, with Sounders having just two attempts from inside the box, one on target. These matches are always keenly fought with avoiding defeat as the priority for both and getting a team as defensively solid as Portland versus an opponent struggling for form, with a handicap start looks the logical way to go.
Head coach Giovanni Savarese is very hungry, as this is his first big job in the main role, having been with NASL team New York Cosmos for seven years, he took a little while to get his ideas across and Timbers started 0-2-3 from their first five starts under him, shipping 12 goals, but are 6-3-0 subsequently conceding just seven through that sequence. The change in goalkeeper might have helped with Jeff Attinella conceding only five in eight since he took over from Jake Gleeson, but is the solidity of the defensive unit which has clicked more than anything, under Gleeson (STAT of the day alert !)Timbers were facing opposition shots from an average of 13.9 yards the worst in MLS, Attinella has only had to deal with attempts from 20.6 yards the best in the MLS and a massive difference. Also ,the teams they have been facing NYCFC ( scored an average of 2.13 pg otherwise) , Eathquakes ( 1.67), LAFC ( 2.0) , SKC ( 2.07) and Atlanta ( 2.06) have been of good offensive quality and amongst the best in that regard in MLS. They have conceded 19 goals total which puts them quite a way down in terms of least given up, but I have very few doubts that, right now, this is the best defense in the league.
Portland won that 3-2 but it was noteworthy that Seattle scored twice against a team posting such strong defensive numbers and it was not long before I was championing Sounders and ahead of a home game with FC Dallas two weeks ago I wrote .........
We have been milking Seattle Sounders over the last month and they have yet to let us down, unbeaten in 7, conceding just four goals , winning their last four and I am loath to desert them today in a fixture they traditionally boss. Last ten meetings here in Seattle have gone 9-1-0, with Sounders scoring 2+ in nine, 3+ in seven,29 goals total (2.9 pg average) and keeping clean sheets in 5 of the last 6. Add in the hosts form and that FC Dallas are suddenly struggling defensively , giving up 11 in their last 6, including three at home (1-3) to Western Conference basement club San Jose Earthquakes (who's problems I have well documented recently) last time out and we have a bet !
Notes on Seattle from their most recent start are reproduced at the foot of this email (edit: see August 12th email). They won that 2-1, trailed for 72 minutes and were again, perhaps not great, but did create a lot (14 attempts inside the box and just shy of 500 completed passes which are both huge numbers for any, let alone a road team in this league) and woe betide anyone if they do start playing to their capacity ! Four of the six teams immediately above Seattle dropped points yesterday and their race to top 6 and beyond is fast gaining pace and no reason for them or us to take our foot off the accelerator just yet.
They won that 2-1 and the next week it did all click and they saw off LA Galaxy 5-0 and we have a super confident team who are 7-2-0 since the last meeting with Timbers.
The hosts have also gone off the boil and have conceded seven in their last two starts, for both of which we opposed them and it is hard to believe how different this game now feels .
Last weekend ahead of their 3-0 loss in KC to Sporting ........
Very briefly, feels like Timbers have lost their way a little in the last 10 days or so and playing West Coast last weekend, in Washington in midweek and now in Kansas , 1,600km from the capital , but still a long way from home and having already shipped six goals in a week to two teams ouside the playoff zone (although DCU look post season bound currently and far removed from their early season selves), this looks a big ask. Sporting are back up to second, have 3/4 starts at home now after back to back road wins against teams with solid home records (one previously unbeaten) and their eye firmly on Western Conference leaders FC Dallas, who are showing signs of vulnerability. Too much travel, play and not enough rotation !
There are more notes on them within the DCU preview below.
We have to stick with Sounders, especially given the handicap start.
1.75 units Seattle Sounders +0.25 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
New York Red Bulls- DC United
I am a pretty big fan of NYRB and feel they will be tough to beat in post season this year, but cannot agree with the odds today and resurgent DCU are too big at North of 6.0 to not grab my attention !
DCU have been kind enough to land a couple of bets for us since they lost to Red Bulls a few weeks back and my notes on the most recent, a 2-0 defeat of Revolution last weekend also included thoughts on that last h2h meeting with NY ..............
------------------------------
What a head of steam DC United are building up and an incredible and immediate impact from Wayne Rooney, they blew Portland Timbers away in midweek to continue their march up the table, ahead of which I wrote ..........
I previewed DCU three weeks ago when they hosted New York Red Bulls, a team we are very keen on ..........
This is a big traditional rivalry and added extra spice as it will be the first time they have met in DCU's brand new Audi Field home. United have made just one start here, a 3-1 defeat of Vancouver, when Wayne Rooney made his debut from off the bench , he started in the only subsequent game,a 3-1 loss at Atlanta United on Saturday, which makes 15 goals conceded in six starts for the team from the capital. DCU sit bottom of the East five points adrift of the team above them, BUT have four games in hand of everyone and have only played three home games total ( 2-1-0) because of the stadium build, six of their next eight are at home and if they could find a way to win five, they could still force their way into the post season picture, as a minimum, I feel they will be looking to at least put in a pretence at a playoff push. DCU to press for the win, but leaving their leaky defense exposed .
NY won 1-0, but DCU have taken seven points from their three subsequent games, winning both home starts , scoring six goals and also hitting the woodwork five times, Rooney has been making an increasing impact and if not quite building up a head of steam, they at least stoking up the fire. They are still at the foot of the Eastern Conference, but will move above three teams with the win and up to eighth, within six of the playoffs and with 2-4 games in hand of all teams above them. Not only that, but they have still only played six of their 20 starts here at Audi Field (4-1-1) and with home wins always north of 50% in MLS that gives them a big top 6 opportunity.
Portland had a very impressive mid season run and posted some incredibly solid defensive stats, but lost at home to Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday and have to leave the West Coast for the first time since June 26th and do so on a short week and very quick turnaround after a cross country flight with three hour time difference. That leaves little to no time to sort what went wrong out at the weekend for a team who have got into travel mode. Timbers played three early season games in the East conceding nine goals, five to two teams who might well be below DCU after this evening.
They won 4-1, also hit the woodwork with two goals from Rooney , who recorded a 9.3 player rating, next highest was 7.5 and that highlights his contribution. The former England player has always been streaky and it is easy to see another goal or two from him today, still only 32 he has probably left Europe too early, but that is DSU's and MLS' gain. Now they face the team immediately above them in the table and this is huge, not least with one of their few remaining road games up next, a rematch with NYRB in the Big Apple. It is not just Rooney of course, Luciano Acosta has three goals and three assists in four starts and Bill Hamid has returned to the club and played in goal in midweek , his first start in 11 months after a loan spell in Europe and he was influential and is looking for his 50th clean sheet for United today.
NER have not won since June 30th and conceded 2+ in 5 of their last six and I expect both trends to continue today
------------------------------
I have no issue with NYRB as favourites today and even a good one, but there is no telling how far a team can go once they start improving and DCU have huge confidence right now and Rooney has made a very big impact. NY have also not beaten a team by more than a single goal since mid July and have posted back to back draws, playing on the West Coast last weekend and in the NY derby in midweek which is super gruelling, DCU had a free midweek. Also it is hot and steamy in NY right now, as it usually is in August and that is not really compatible with the Red Bull's high tempo hard pressing style. Lets give DCU a try !
1.5 units DC United +1 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
0.75 units DC United to win 6.10 asian line/Sportmarket.
PGA Tour:Playoff series: The Northern Trust
My pre tournament notes from Thursday are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off.
Let's start with Adam Scott ..........aargh !!!
He is in a tie for 5th two strokes off second place, but six adrift of Bryson DeChambeau who leads. Scott dropped four strokes in three holes around the turn, he has basically hit five poor drives/shots off the tee all week and they have cost him six strokes, he has otherwise played really well and paid the severest penalty for probably fewer bad shots than anyone else ! He really should be second on his own at the very least . It is not over yet, having one player out on his own is not the same as trying to catch 3-5 and strange things can happen to anyone on a golf course, especially on Sunday and Scott is a very good R4 golfer, so fingers crossed and obviously he is huge value for top ten anyway with basically 1.5 shots in hand in that "race".
Current odds are 23.0 for Scott to win and 1.6 max for top 10.
Also the top two, Keegan Bradley is second, went very low yesterday and it is notoriously difficult to do so over the weekend on both days in big events.
Looking at those trying to make the top 100 to play next week, I will discuss three briefly .........
Brian Stuard (currently projected #102) , Sean O'Hair ( #104) and Jhonathan Vegas (#109), "projected" means points going into this week added to those they would gain for their current (54 hole) position, all three are currently T26th and need to finish top 20 to give themselves a chance , top ten would guarantee it. They all sit on -6, -8 is inside the 20 currently , -9 the top ten, that will change today of course but gives us some idea of what is required.
Stuard is cira 4.33+ for top 20, 23.0-26.0 for top 10, O'Hair 4.0 and 17.0-23.0, Vegas 4.33 and 19.0.
In terms of R4 play for 2018, Stuard is ranked 104 and was 109 in 2017, O'Hair and Vegas are well off the pace this year at 158 and 180, but were 43 and 34 respectively last year which is good.
When starting R4 between 11-25th place which is basically where they are today, Stuard equalled or improved his finishing position 2/2 times last season and Vegas has decent numbers in that category to make a case for him also today. Best numbers are put up by Sean O'Hair who in the last four years has equalled or bettered that starting position on 12/19 occasions (63%) and hard to see how he will have had greater motivation to do so than today. Within those numbers he has done so on 5 of the last 6 .
All three will be super motivated, but I guess I have to pick one, so O'Hair it is , the 36yo is a four time winner and has banked $24m in prize money so will not be desperate or nervous, just motivated. The third playoff series event (top 70) is also being held at Aronimink which is O'Hair's own club and where he is very keen to play but cannot do so without first making the 100 this week.
1.25 units Sean O'Hair to finish top 20 @ 4.0 general quote.
0.5 unit Sean O'Hair to finish top 10 @ 17.0-23.0 general quote.
If you can only find top 10, I would suggest betting a little more on that, big odds and a cheap bet and we will land one of these during the playoff series.
It is lonely at the top of the leaderboard so let's also try to find some company for Scott and that has to be Billy Horschel, who is a wonderful player "in contention" and back in May last year I wrote ..........
------------------------------
Not going to waste too much time on this, I think Billy Horschel is a great "in contention" player, is due to win again, the time feels right and we have the market made for us by Jason Day shooting a 63 yesterday to get into the picture, it is very difficult to follow up such an ultra low score and whilst the Aussie is very capable of doing so, he has not gone low/low or been in real contention since last summer and might be battle rusty.
Early this season I spoke about how the last few years had played out for Horschel .................
After a dream 2014, things were always going to get harder for Billy Horschel , that year he won his second ever PGA event at the BMW Championship , next time out he took the season ending Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup and the small matter of the $10m bonus, two days later, he became a father for the first time, pretty much 3-4 life changing events inside a fortnight !
Early the following year I wrote about his confidence in his own ability, but also how he will not exert too much effort in tournaments to finish 25th insetad of 40th, he loves h2h golf and feels that one on one, he can beat anyone and he does means anyone.............
On the final day of the recent Valero Texas Open , I was very keen on a top 5 bet for Horschel and spoke about how strongly he ended 2014 and the signs he was returning to form .......
Horshel has won three times in the last two seasons and also been top 3 three times, he is very strong in contention and was 2-1-1 in his last three starts of 2014 to win the Tour Championship and the FedEx cup, two days later he became a father for the first time , what a couple of weeks ! No wonder he has struggled early in 2015, but this is his first chance since and I have a very strong feeling he will go ultra well today and over the coming weeks. He missed the cut here last year, but was T3 in 2013 and that is typical of his style, going deep when in contention and letting things slip when not. First child is a big motivating factor and this is his first chance to win/impress since the birth.
He was 3rd there, but has not really been able to get his teeth into too many events since, however, when he has, he has been the same focused golfer we saw two years ago, he shot a Sunday 65 at the StJude Classic last year and a 64-68 over the wekend at the Wyndham in August showing us that a top golfer is still in there. He is the quality golfer and proven top level winner on the leaderboard today .
I listen to a lot of interviews, especially on golf and tennis and you learn to read between the lines and tell when a sportsman or woman is going through the motions and offering stock answers and when they are genuinely in a good place, pleased with life and their game and Horschel gave one of the most positive post round interviews you will ever see yesterday. I have to paraphrase slightly, but he "said": I am hitting the ball really well, the best I have in 18 months. "I love the course and know it very well having played here a lot in college." I know where to be aggressive and where to play smart. "I feel in total control of the golf ball and can put it anywhere I want on the greens."
His game is all about confidence and you could not listen to that interview and feel anything but positive about his chances today.
He finished second there and was 4th at the Honda after a 67-68 at the weekend and he kind of always goes close and shoots low when in contention, he couldn't overly care much about busting a gut to finsh 25th instead of 35th and is the ideal player you want on your side on Sunday afternoon , as it is win or bust.
Post Round 3 he said that it was a really good day of golf, that he managed his round well and putted very nicely, had good reads, but just hit the edges of a lot of holes, adding that he had been working hard and that he felt his game was in a place where he would win again. I don't often say this (usually it is along the lines of something offers good value), so when I do you should take notice as I am right more often than not when I do .......... I think Horschel will win today.
------------------------------
I "never" say someone will win, but did that day and Horschel beat Day in a playoff.
He comes into today tied 5th along with Adam Scott and he has shot 69-69-65 this week, has not dropped a shot to par in 28 holes and played the back nine in a stunning -5 yesterday. Horschel won twice late season in 2014 in the playoff series to take the whole FedEx Cup and $10m bonus and will have an eye on going deep again, top 5 today will go a long way to securing top 30 and a spot in the Tour Championship and maybe he can even get closer !
I cannot say he "will win" today, but I do love his top 5 odds.
1.75 units Billy Horschel to finish top 5 @ 3.75-4.0 general quote.
0.75 units Billy Horschel to win outright 26.0-34.0 general quote.
Good Luck.
PGA Tour:
Playoff series: The Northern Trust
Play off season est arrivé !
We have a virtual knockout format, with 125 golfers, playing down to 30 over the next three weeks, they will all then do battle in the "final", with mega money on the line.
Top 125 players on the FedEx standings are eligible to compete and play in the first event, which starts today......The Northern Trust previously The Barclays.
After this week, the top 100 in the standings are then eligible to play in the Dell Technologies Championship formerly the Deutche Bank Championship.
Following that, the top 70 move on to the BMW Championship and finally.....
Just 30 will feature in the season ending Tour Championship.
There is no halfway cut in the final two events, all four have big prize money, but the top 30 who make the Tour Championship will also share out some huge bonus payments ($35m !) .
This always makes for some interesting scenarios with people busting a gut to shoot low over closing holes despite being way off the pace, just moving up from 101st to 100th spot could be vital, it would mean playing next week, when it would start all over again, but more importantly, keep the dream alive !
We will definitely be returning to this on Sunday morning and see if the oddsmakers have given this massive incentive, enough weight.
In recent years as many as eight of the players ranked 101-125 this week made it into the top 100 and played at the Deutche/Dell and anyone currently outside the Top 50 could even guarantee a place in the final 30 by finishing top 2 this week.
So, an awful lot to keep our eye(s) on over the next few days !
The projected points anticipated to secure a spot for next week is 529 , you can see a list of those on 528 and less and what they probably need to reach the desired number on this page of the PGA website.
Last year I wrote ..........
This was formerly known as The Barclays and, in addition to the name change, is also being played on a completely new PGA course, the Glen Oaks Golf Club and there is no form to go on, so we have to go with the design and what the pros have said. It is easy to see similarities to Augusta and that is no surprise as course superintendent Craig Currier spent a couple of years at the Masters and the influence is fairly obvious. Two other names that have popped up a lot when players have discussed similarities this week are Ridgewood and Riviera and that also makes some sense and the former has hosted the Barclays three times since 2008.
That all made sense as the leaderboard was full of players who had done well in those previous tournaments, in the case of the Masters, chock full !
Of the top 20 in last year's Northern Trust, 8 had also finished top 25 in the 2017 Masters, but of that same 20, an incredible 12 were also top 20 at Augusta this year !
This year the event returns to Ridgewood in New Jersey for the first time since 2014 when, of the Top 30 and ties, as many as 19 could be considered Masters specialists, including seven former Augusta winners.
So, as a starting point, I think we can consider form from the first major of the year as hugely important, perhaps accuracy off the tee is more significant here and with the fairways wet, being long and straight with the driver is another key attribute we want our player to have.
Adam Scott made the final day of the PGA Championship notes two weeks ago ...........
Adam Scott ! Adam is on the clubgowi hall of fame and getting competitive again and ahead of the final round at the Open last month I wrote ..........
Jason Day loves the wind and Adam Scott has the ideal game for it and today and the Open and could even win and I have to say I took a little on him at 80-1 + . Scott is one of my all time favourites and should have two Opens to his name, he blew one and was robbed of another by that draw I discussed yesterday and always moan about !
Since 2012 the year he threw this away he has finished 2-3-5-10-43-22 in the Open, he is not the player he was, but it is in there somewhere and in golfing terms he is still relatively young and today, from T13th has no pressure on him. Notes from 2015 are reproduced below (edit: see July 22nd email). He has two top 11's in his last 5 starts and has gone low on Sunday in 3/4 events in which he has played 4 rounds. He has lured Fanny Sunesson out of retirement this week to caddy for him and few know their way round an Open course better than her, the pair have improved each day 71-70-68 and we have to side with him today.
He finished 17th there, not what I expected , but bear in mind he was 100-1 ahead of R4. He is back in contention three weeks later in another major and I expect to see the old "in contention" Scott today and a real charge from him. He can drive the ball long and straight when in this kind of form , he has played the last 26 holes in -9, missed a very short putt at one hole otherwise his score for that sequence would be good enough for 2nd on it's own. He has shot back to back 65's and has improved his driving distance, accuracy and greens in regulation stats on all three days, if he can get hot with the putter today, maybe the right side of warm will do, he has to go close.
He finished 3rd there, his best major finish in 21 starts, he is a five time top ten finisher at Augusta, including winning in 2013 and in the last two playoff series events played here at Ridgewood he finished 15th and 9th.Once he gets into a groove with the driver, no one hits it longer and straighter and we can start this playoff series off with a small interest on him.
At the PGA after round 1 , so before he got deep into contention, he spoke frankly in interview about what he felt was lacking and that he felt things we starting to come together (notes are from the PGA website)...........
Sitting in 119th spot on the FedExCup standings, Scott entered the PGA Championship with his FedExCup Playoff future in doubt.
The Australian is one of only 13 players who have qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every year since its inception in 2007 but a rough 14 months put the streak under threat.
So a tidy 5-under 65 was very welcome indeed, ensuring he will start the weekend just five shots back of leader Gary Woodland.
As a 13-time PGA TOUR winner and former Masters champion it has surprised many to see the 38-year-old’s spot in jeopardy.
Including Scott himself.
But the reality is he has just one top-10 finish in 14 months, a tie for ninth this season at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
“The difference between the level I think I’ve played at and the top level is very fine and really after a little while it’s just that little bit of confidence that you lack,” Scott said.
“And it is very very hard for anyone to give you that other than yourself.
“That self-belief has to come out and I feel like the last six to eight weeks has been a real positive for me. My results look a lot worse than what it has felt. I have played some good golf but inconsistently.”
Scott said his warmup before an opening round 70 was the best he’s had all season. Having recently re-hired his brother in law Brad Malone as a swing coach after a two-year hiatus the benefits are beginning to show.
“It felt like the young Adam Scott swinging the golf club. With a bit of ease, a bit of grace, bit of flow and rhythm,” Scott said.
“That was enough to make me play a little more freely. There were good signs that carried over to today, and hopefully tomorrow it gets better and better.”
Scott is 73 on the FedEx cup list currently, guaranteed to play next week, so his target will be looking to secure top 30 asap, in addition to winning another title !
0.5 units Adam Scott to win outright 41.0+ general quote, but there is 3k liquidity @ 55.0-60.0 on Betfair.
1.75 units Adam Scott to finish top 10 @ 4.50-5.0 general quote.