Japan: J-League 1 betting tip: Gamba Osaka- V-Varen Nagasaki
Nov 23, 2018
Japan: J-League 1: Gamba Osaka- V-Varen Nagasaki
This is a "friendly" with Gamba safe in upper mid table and only able to finish (an unlikely 5th) and VVN already officially relegated. However, absolutely no doubts over who is the better team and in wonderful form and the host have been riding the crest of a wave since Tsuneyasu Miyamoto took charge of the squad and, there are some background notes on that from last month at the foot of this email. Their last game was a 1-0 defeat of Shonan Bellmare and ahead of that I wrote ............
Gamba are coming from a 3-1 win at Urawa last weekend and as the final whistle went I wrote ...............
....................if they could have back the ten points lost from winning positions early in the tenure of the "new" head coach they would actually be 3rd, three points clear of FC Tokyo in 4th. Tsuneyasu Miyamoto and Gamba's stock continues to rise !
I just cannot see any let up, it is not just the wins and they could have gone from 4-5-11 and three points from safety after 20 games to Champions League if they had just learned how to hold onto all these leads a little earlier, but the quality of performance and we and J-League and supporters have the real Gamba back. Suddenly so much hope for 2019, no CL distractions which might be a bonus and surely a title push, surely no easing off, especially in their final home start and what might have been a sad day 3-4 months ago, will probably be party time !
VVN are without suspended second top scorer Keita Nakamura, top scorer Musashi Suzuki has not scored in 10 weeks and has been nursing a knee injury.
Gamba also lost the reverse fixture 3-0, that was a "different" team, but I think it will further incentivise the host for a little "payback".
1.75 units Gamba Osaka -1 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Gamba Osaka- Yokohama F.Marinos (Written Ocober 19th)
I am glad that both these two have pulled away from the drop zone and given themselves a little breathing space over the bottom three, they are each too good to go down, but we have heard that before ! Marinos have two points more than Gamba and only one season in history has a team been relegated with 38 + points, so they look safe and can perhaps bask in and look forward to their J-League Cup final spot which they earned last week. I spoke in those notes about what an open style they play and they are certainly good for JL1 football. Gamba are on fire and playing at a very high level, they have gone up through the gears since Tsuneyasu Miyamoto became head coach and have had two weeks to reflect on their derby win away to Cerezo Osaka ...............
Gamba are well and truly back in the good books and buoyed by a defeat of league leaders Sanfrecce last week ........
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I was pleased with my notes on Gamba's last start, a 2-1 win at Shimizu S-Pulse...............
Gamba looked in trouble last weekend approaching the hour mark a goal down away to Visse Kobe, where defeat would have left them five points from safety, but they turned the game around and would move out of the drop zone, at least for 24 hours with a repeat three points today. Shimizu will also be pleased with how last week played out, winning 3-2 at struggling Kashiwa Reysol, those points have given them a five point drop zone buffer and taken them up to 10th . They are three points off the total usually required to survive, it might need more this year, but they are already close and their need not as great as Gamba's and SSP have been better on the road this season, collecting 19 of their 34 points away from home and scoring 5 more goals. That includes a 2-1 win in Osaka back in July, Gamba have a decent record here in Shizuoka, winning on 6 of 7 JL1 visits, scoring at least three in 5 of the last 6, but that was when they were good ! However, it should ensure that they have positive memories when stepping off the team bus.
Early last month I spoke about the change in coach at Gamba and how they looked to be on the up ahead of a trip to Jubilo Iwata.............
Gamba are having a nightmare season in JL1 and will need to up their game to get anything out of this and close in on the four points they are currently away from survival. However, they are in the last eight of the League Cup, having knocked Jubilo Iwata out over two legs in the playoff round, winning here in Shizuoka 3-2 and have a new head coach and one who the players like and have full respect for and, who knows how the club operate, Tsuneyasu Miyamoto stepping up from the U23 team to replace Levir Culpi. The new boss was born in Osaka Prefecture, spent 14 years as a player at Gamba, time in Europe which most Japanese footballers dream of and 71 times for his country and has been working with the youngsters for a couple of seasons. He took charge a week ago and got an immediate response from his players who battled back from a goal down to share the points with Kashima Antlers who had just refound their own form, that was the first time in ten occasions that Gamba had fallen behind and not lost. Antlers had scored 22 goals (!) in their previous five starts, including three in a six goals thriller away to Jubilo and Gamba restricted then to just two attempts from inside the penalty box, so, quite a bit for one of the nation's biggest clubs to take from that and I suspect the mood is intense, but also a little lighter on the Gamba training ground this week. They have averaged 1.7 goals per game on their last ten trips to Jubilo who have failed to score in their last three. Miyamoto knows what makes the club tick, their philosophy and I expect him to be able to get enough out of this still talented squad who are comfortable on the ball to survive and they can start with a point or better today.
They have gone 3-2-3 subsequently which is an improvement, picking up 0.5 points pg more than previously and continuing at that rate "should" be enough. However, they actually led in four of those five games in which they failed to win, dropping 10 points from winning positions and retaining half of those would already see them in 12th place.They need to be more ruthless but are look overpriced today given that they are likely to put themselses in a good position, will not give up if falling behind, their need is great and SSP are better on the road, add in that great h2h record and we have a bet !
Gamba again started very well ( see above) and were 2-0 up at the half , that put us in a great position and also opened up the opportunity to back the hosts at the break (given those leads that Gamba had blown) and SSP did win the second half, but thankfully just 1-0 .
Now Gamba are back in Osaka and host an old rival in Sanfrecce who sit top of JL1 on 56 points, 26 more than the host. The issue, at least for Hiroshima, is that they collected 40 of those points from their first 16 starts, "only" 16 from the last 11, that is 8th placed form, add in elimination from both cups and this is not the same team we saw in early season. Gamba have only picked up one point less over those 11 games and have wasted a double handful and I would argue that they have played better overall through that sequence than Sanfrecce and the odds today do not make huge sense and appear priced mainly on the bare league table, which, despite general opinion to the contrary, often lies !
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All the old love for Gamba, who were a money making machine for us for two seasons in JL1 came flooding back and I am far too weak to desert them today with a handicap start !
They do not have to travel far for the derby game, Cerezo are struggling, out of the cups (both of which they won last season) and down to 7th in the league, having not won in four league and cup starts. They will be up for this I suspect, but look inferior to Gamba at present, despite the 11 points which separate them currently.
At times against Sanfrecce it felt like we had been trasported back a couple of seasons and all those silky passing moves and high possession stats were on show, 20-30 passes in a row against the "best" in JL1 and Tsuneyasu Miyamoto( see above) feels like a very good appointment indeed. He knows what Gamba are all about and has restored some pride and if they had been a little better at holding onto a lead earlier in his tenure (again, see above), they could already be well established in the top ten.
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They have stopped blowing leads now he said, whilst banging loudly on the desk. When Miyamoto took the helm they were 16th with 15 points from 17 starts, they have subsequently picked up 20 from 12 and, if they had not dropped those 10 points, would actually be in a tie for 3rd ! They are too big a club and have too much momentum now to switch off IMO and club and coach will want to see how far they can go and continue to lay down some foundations for 2019. Home win.
1.75 units Gamba Osaka -0.25 ball 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket.
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