Premier League betting tip: West Ham United- Cardiff City
Dec 04, 2018
Premier League: West Ham United- Cardiff City
I previewed United's trip to Huddersfield last month a few day's after writing a "without the Big 6" update ..............
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Thought we could take a quick look at the "best of the rest" market, or without the "Big 6".
Bournemouth 20 pts ( 10 pts last 5 starts)
Watford 19 (6)
Everton 18 (12)
Leicester City 16 (7)
Wolverhampton Wanderers 15 (6)
Brighton 14 (9)
West Ham United 11 (7)
Crystal Palace 8 (!)
Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester have performed remarkably close to how they "should have done" in terms of XG, XG conceded and Xpoints.
Everton and Brighton have overperformed, each in points gained , the Toffees also in terms of goals scored, the Seagulls dodging a few bullets at the back, where they should have shipped an additional five goals.
That leaves Wolves, WHU and Palace, they should have an additional 2-5 points each, Palace are underperforming in front of goal, but you only have to watch them for five minutes to realise that, they have a lot of ground to make up, but have plenty of potential to improve and did go on that crazy run last season (1-1-9 and cast adrift after 11 games) then 5-6-1 and up to 12th by the second week in January. I would not totally write off something like that, but, like most of the other 7 clubs discussed they have played 2-3 of the Big 6 and 2-3 of the bottom 4 and their upcoming schedule is not as interesting as the other two.
Wolves have played 3 of the big 6, none of the bottom 4, they should have 3.5 more points and a 6.5 better goal difference, scoring more, conceding less.
The Hammers should have +2 points, they are interesting because they have played 5 games already against the Big 6 , none versus the bottom four.
Wolves are a little interesting at 4.50 + I guess to finish best of the rest, but United are 16-1 and that is more of a "working man's price" and very tempting.
In pre season I wrote .................
I also see West Ham United as a team to keep an eye on this season. Despite all the negative comments about lack of investment and the move away from Upton Park, including fan protests, in the cold light of day, the Hammers have been pretty solid in their six PL seasons since promotion in 2012, finishing 10-13-12-7-11-13. So a sound base to move forward and the much maligned (rightly or wrongly) ownership double act of Sullivan and Gold have cut loose the purse strings this summer, spending well north of 100m to bring in some real talent. With Felipe Anderson/ Issa Diop/ Andriy Yarmolenko/Fabian Balbuena/ Jack Wilshere/ Carlos/Sanchez alongside several others joining the club which has made the locals very happy, although most joy was reserved for the appointment of head coach Manuel Pellegrini who is seen as the classy, senior stateman like head coach with a winning track record who can take the club forward and his impact has been immediate. Captain Mark Noble who has been at the club since he was 13yo said this week that pre season under Pellegrini has been on a different level and far removed from any before and that the squad are as well prepared as ever and as possible, for the new campaign. The Chilean would not take the job until he got major assurances from the owners about backing, not just in terms of money spent on players, but investment in the day to day operation of the club and they have been good to their word and it feels like they are ready to at least make an attempt to push on to the next level, which in their terms means competing for 7th.
They have a terrible start, but are starting to pick up and as you can see above, they are almost always in and around 10th place, do have a 7th to their name and far better quality of player now and despite losing Andriy Yarmolenko for six months, pretty good depth.
Their next 10 starts up to the New Year fixture are Huddersfield /Man City ( by which time they will have already completed half of Big 6 games)/ Newcastle/Cardiff/Palace/ Fulham/ Watford/Southampton/Burnley/ Brighton. That's City , Watford and the other bottom 9 clubs.
Those numbers also indicate that Watford and Bournemouth are playing at exactly the level the league table suggests.
Away at Huddersfield is amongst the 2-3 easier Premier League road games and one United should be looking to take three points from to enable them to start planning for bigger things, it really feels like an incredibly important time for them and the head coach now, they need to justify the money spent and make the case for further investment on a similar/bigger scale going forward. There are notes earlier in this email on the Terriers and most of you know I am not a fan of them or head coach David Wagner, who is way too negative for my liking, especially here at home.They are coming off a rare win, their first in 15 starts over a struggling Fulham side, that was played on Monday, so two and a half days less to recover and prepare, United having had a free midweek to bask in the warm glow of a 4-2 home win over Burnley. Town have not kept consecutive clean sheets for 15 months and I certainly do not see them getting one today now that the Hammers have found their shooting boots and they will be further buoyed by a 4-1 win here last season, when Marko Arnautovic but on a bit of a second half masterclass, he and Felipe Anderson (two goals last week and coming to terms with English football) should have too much quality for Town. Manuel Pellegrini spoke about the super talented Anderson yesterday saying he had his swagger back on the training ground this week after his performance last Saturday and he should have the space against the deep lying home side to work some magic today.
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That finished 1-1 , the Hammers then lost 4-0 at home to Manchester City, the game getting away from them early and you cannot gamble and play catch up against City, but bounced back with a 3-0 road win at Newcastle United on Saturday. They have now played half of their fixtures against the Big 6 and look in an increasingly strong position to make that push up the table over the next month or so.
Cardiff are also on the up and have won 3/6 after taking just 2 points from their opening 8 starts. Those wins all came in South Wales and in very similar fashion, they conceded first in each, did not take the decisive lead until the 65th/90th/77th minute and put a lot of pressure on opponents from set pieces..............it was ever thus. It is very one dimensional and a bit agricultural at times, but having got City to the promised land and now out of the drop zone, I cannot see the Bluebirds or head coach Neil Warnock (pictured), who turned 70 on Saturday, changing tack any time soon and they do not have the players to do so, even if the spirit was willing, and it isn't ! City have now conceded first in their last nine starts (!) and have not led after 62 minutes in any of their 14 top flight games ( 0-5-9), yes, they have resilience and will keep battling, but there are only so many times you can come from a goal down in a league of this quality. City have lost their last three Tuesday games (two in an automatic promotion season and one at home to Norwich City 3-1 in the LC this season), this will be their first Premier League game on a quick turnaround and given their style of play, that should not suit and maybe, on this occasion, there might not be so much left in the tank late. They will also fancy the weekend home game with managerless Southampton and might play with one eye on that.
1.75 units West Ham United -0.5 ball 2.25 Half Time asian line/Sportmarket..............
Good Luck.
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