Leaderboard........

 

-17 Woodland

-14 McIlroy

-13 Leishman

-12 Schauffle

-12 DeChambeau

-10 Tway

-10 Thomas

-9 Rahm

-9 Dustin Johnson

 

That is a glittering leaderboard with three of those nine having been ranked World number one in the last three years and possibly another three set to follow suit at some stage, or go mighty close. Overnight leader Gary Woodland is not one, he gets into some good positions on Tour and is a three time winner, but all came from off the pace, he has led six times after 54 holes and lost on each occasion ! Some players are built to win from the front, for my money Woodland is not one of those.

 

They are few tougher positions in sport than leading a golf tournament with 18 holes to play with a bunch of proven winners snapping at your heels, the first tee shot is tough, if you get that away the pressure might dip momentarily, but the truth is it just builds from there and reaches a whole new level over the back 9. Not saying he cannot win, he is a good golfer and has a healthy lead, but three stokes can disappear in the blink of an eye on the golf course and IMO, his odds for today (circa 1.72) are wrong, bookmakers, at least the European ones are just sheep and it is weird how they have basically all priced this up  "independently " and each arrived at exactly the same conclusion ! 1.72 Woodland. 3.75 Rory, 9 Leishman, 12 DeChambeau, 17.0 Schauffle .Give me a break ! Anyway, I see things much closer than that.

 

Rory has also struggled to get the job done on Sunday from or near the front and went out in the final group 6 times in 2018 and did not win. Of course he is a multi winner and that can only go on for so long and I understand he has worked very hard through the off season and he was driving the ball perfectly yesterday and at any time I have seen him this week and he is #1 for GIR (greens in regulation ). He can definitely win and could even run away with this if he finds his A game today and his putter gets even luke warm, but this is not a course where golfers usually win on their first visit.

 

I like Leishman/Schauffle and DeChambeau at quoted odds and circa 4.0 combined at general quotes, 5.0 by taking best odds on exchanges, is good value.

 

 

Conditions will also be very different today, with wind set to switch from E/NE direction which it has been all week, to N/NW and differing speeds. It will feel very alien, like another golf course and I hardly think that helps Woodland. Schauffele is just playing this event for the second time, the first was a bit of a "welcome home" as the 25yo's father used to be the assistant professional here at Kapalua, where Xander lived for two years, lots of players improve hugely on their second pro visit to this windy course and last year, XS was also adapting to not just new clubs, but a ball change and it took most of last year to come to terms with all that, but he ended 2018 on fire(3rd at the BMW and 7th at the Tour Championship finale) and has already won a "2019" WGC event. Leishman absolutely loves playing in the wind and grew up in the Australian town of Warrnambool which often gets high coastal winds that can switch in a instant, he has won three times since 2017 after dealing with a serious family illness (his wife was given a 5% chance of surviving and thankfully beat those odds) and was second twice in his homeland in November in two big tournaments which he says have left him motivated to put right and win this week. Bryson DeChambeau has won five times since July 2017, four in the calendar year of 2018 and all in low scoring events like this one ( winning scores -15 to -21).