WGC: Mexico Championship ..................Round 4
Feb 24, 2019
WGC: Mexico Championship
A quick look at the leaderboard will tell you that outright win markets are not very interesting, with Dustin Johnson four clear of Rory McIlroy and the Ulsterman a further three ahead of the group tied for third. That is a big advantage for two former #1 and world class golfers to lose on a course which plays to their strengths.
However, that is not to say that the tournament is not without interest, far from it.
I have three suggestions, all at 3.50 + one at HUGE odds ...............
Paul Casey held a big overnight lead after 54 holes at the AT&T Pebble Beach event two weeks ago and I felt a little "dirty" suggesting he should be taken on as he had done us so very many favours, but the truth is Paul is a not a "winner", a money making machine for sure, but not someone who finds crossing the line easy and ahead of that R4 I wrote ...............
Paul Casey is a long term favourite and I have lost count of the number of times he has finished top 5 or top 10 for us and he is a very good "in contention" Sunday player from off the pace. It is the last three words of that sentence which are most important. The British golfer doesn't have the number of titles his talent indicates he should have and he has won just twice on the US Tour and only once since 2009, that was last year and maybe the floodgates will open, but haven't since and that would be rare at 41yo, although he feels a young player in his 40's and is very fit. If he was 6th or 7th overnight I would be all over him like a rash to finish top 5, but winning is different. Three strokes is a decent lead, but can evaporate quickly in Sunday play and Phil Mickelson will have all the local support in their pairing.
He finished second, he might win again, but it would have to be from off the pace for me and I would only be backing him to win on Sunday in those circumstances and at big odds. But this is more his style, he is T13th and shot a lovely 65 yesterday to leave himself only one stroke off a tie for 9th. He will probably have to pick up two strokes today, but no one will be trying harder and he was 16th here in 2017 (67-66 over the weekend), 12th last year and natural progression should take him into that top 10 which I want to back him for. I can feel his form is coming back and I am, if not 100%, then 95% certain we will do VERY well with him in the coming months and I have two events earmarked already.
To provide some background on his, at the end of 2017 ahead of the Tour Championship finale I wrote .............
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Talking of favours, how many has Paul Casey done us ? Most recent was two tournaments ago at the Dell when I wrote ..............
For today, I will finish with a few words about Paul Casey, he has turned into one of the most consistent golfers on Tour and is racking up a fortune without winning too often, he has earned well over $3m this year and $21m + in his career on Tour. The British golfer is 9-6-12-22-10-26-5-11-5-13-5 in his last 11 starts, never worse than 26th and top 15 nine times.
He holds his form very well once he finds it and has served us well in a number of big events, he was 2nd in this event last year and it plays to his strengths and he is very well placed in key stat categories, which players who go deep here need to thrive in. Most important of those is "strokes gained in approach shots", he was 3rd in that in 2015, but had to withdraw here, last year he was 11th and finished 2nd, this year he comes into this event again ranked #3 on Tour in that category and has played more rounds than the other top 6 and given that, he could stake a claim for the #1 position. Last year in the playoff series he went 31-2-2-4 and as I started these notes, he is hard to shake off his game once he finds a groove. He is expecting a child around the time of the Tour Championship, whether he will play there or not, I do not know, but that should further concentrate his mind for the next two events at least. Casey has to go close this week, he is 2.10 for top 20, 3.0-3.30 to finish top 10 and 5.5-6.5 to record his 4th top 5 in six starts and back to back here and incredibly, in his 5th playoff series event in a row ! That has to be the call , but all three markets offer value.
He landed that top 5 bet @ odds of 6.5 and is now looking to win his second ever PGA event.
I would be happy to see him do so, very happy, I think it is long, long overdue and fully deserved, but cannot side with him today. Casey is a money making machine, but has, I think, finished top 5 on 15 occasions since his last and only win in the US, if he was 5th-7th going into today, I would be all over him like a rash to finish top 5 but I am not sure about winning from the front and he will be under intense pressure . He is a new father which usually helps and doesn't need the money, but the win today if it comes along with the FedEx bonus could be worth $11.6m and you could probably add another $10m in sponsorship deals and bonus payments and that is not a normal sum to be at stake over 18 holes especially when you have not won in the US for 8 years and he has lost two playoffs in the interim.
The British golfer finished 5th last year, but finally won again in the US taking the Valspar Championship back in March from Tiger Woods of all people, shooting 65 to win from off the pace and that is when we see him at his best. 2018 has not been as good despite that win and he withdrew at the BMW last time out after three rounds with back pain, with this week and the Ryder Cup, which is a very big deal for him, firmly in mind. That did not augur well for the Tour Championship but he shot his 7th round from 8 in the 60's yesterday for a 66 which took him up to 6th and only just one stroke off a tie for 4th. That is the position I think he will have as his initial target and then see where that will take him . He is a master of Top 5's with 12 of them in his last 46 starts and his four previous visits to East Lake have seen him finish 4-5-4-5 the last three all coming since 2015, that is incredible consistency and the only thing which stopped me getting involved pre tournament was that withdrawl, but his fitness cannot really be in doubt after yesterday, when he hit 11 of 18 greens in regulation and had a good round of putting, with no misses from within 10 feet .
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2 units Paul Casey to finish top 10 @ 3.5 general quote.
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Good Luck.
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