If you had shown me prices this morning for several of today's matches a year ago I would have been trying to raise as much cash as possible to bet Ostapenko/ Garcia/ Kasatkina/ Cibulkova all at odds against, mostly big odds against, either that or I would have thought I had been transported to another dimension overnight, one where the WTA rankings were upside down ! Of course, as I am so fond of saying, a week (let alone a year) is a long time in sport and politics and this quartet have all had issues over the interim. However, as I start typing, I am not sure I am strong enough to pass on all four, but I will come back to that later in my notes.
Elise Mertens -Amanda Anisimova
Amanda Anisimova is not the finished article yet, far from it, which is just as well for the rest of the players on Tour !
At the Aussie Open when she met another budding superstar in Aryna Sabalenka I wrote .............
What a match up ! One to really savour, enjoy and hopefully learn a little something from.
There is no teenager in the world who has impressed me as much as Amanda Anisimova in the last two decades and that includes Naomi Osaka and there were lengthy notes on her in the Tuesday email, when she made a mockery of odds against to beat Tsurenko, #24 in the world, 0&2 ! Aryna Sabalenka is a step further on, ranked #11, will be top ten next week and is a genuine slam contender now at just 20 yo, of course that is three years older than Anisimova , but as good as Sabalenko is and that is VERY good, I doubt we will see odds of 2.90 + for AA too often (ever ?) when they meet in the future.
AA won 3&2 and then lost to finalist Petra Kvitova, she is not quite ready to go all the way yet, but can beat absolutely anyone on Tour.
I have some very good/informative background notes on AA from last March at the foot of this email.
In her opening match here, Anisimova blew away Aleksandra Krunic who is ranked circa 50 in the world 6-0 6-4 and that scoreline is flattering to Krunic !
Mertens is a step up, but I don't think she can beat AA if things click for the US player and I further do not feel that the Belgian is totally suited by this surface and she has lost in her opening match on two previous appearances, to Qiang Wang and Sachia Vickery.
Anisimova has 7 career wins over top 50 opponents all since Indian Wells last season (she beat Kvitova here) all seven wins came in two sets and rather than bet her at sub even money today, I think it is better to take the far bigger odds for her to win in straight sets, if it goes to a decider there is more chance at this stage of their respective careers that Mertens' experience might win out. Still a big and steep learning curve for AA but odds like these will never be offered in the future, so we should look to take advantage whenever possible.
1.75 units Amanda Anisimova to win 2-0 sets 2.99 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
They messed with the
Miami Open schedule and we have some first round matches today, not really an issue as there is not a lot to discuss, but I do have to say a few words about the match up between
Amanda Anisimova and
Qiang Wang.
I have no real issues with Wang, she is a decent player, ranked at around the 50 mark which is about her level ,but she struggles against the better and taller players on Tour who are not Kristina Mladenovic ! She seems to have the Frenchwoman's number leading the h2h 3-0, but is otherwise 3-18 against top 20 players and 0-5 against those as tall as Anisimova . The flaw in these numbers is that her 16 yo opponent is currently ranked #130 but that is only because she has played just five minutes on Tour and is no reflection on her ability(already) or limitless potential.
Last week I wrote ...........
I was very impressed with 16 yo Amanda Anisimova in her win over Petra Kvitova on Sunday, Kvitova was a bit of a no show and might need a rest now after her two tournament wins, but it was still a major scalp and it just looked like once the contest started that Anisimova expected to win . No nerves, no over celebration, she is listed at 1.78m but is definitely taller and is only going to get bigger/stronger, must be nice to have the world at your feet in your mid teens ! Both her parents are Russian, but they moved to the US before Amanda was born, she is the current US Open Junior champion and also made the final in Roland Garros, which is eyecatching for a youngster bought up on US hardcourts. today she meets another Czech and one of a similar height to Kvitova in Karolina Pliskova who was briefly at #1 last summer, but has since fallen to 5 and is another player you kind of feel was not really happy, like Angelique Kerber with the crown. The courts here suit Pliskova well, she is 14-4 at Indian Wells in the last four years, only losing to the best of the best ( Halep, Kuznetsova. Azarenka and Li Na). It feels like this would be too much for Anisimova, she had not won a WTA match until last week and has done enough, but I couldn't oppose her and I suspect in the near future we will look at odds like 3.15 to beat anyone and think , wow !
From the NY Times:
Not Anisimova and her already sizable entourage, which includes her father and head coach, Konstantin Anisimov; her mother, Olga; her traveling coach, Max Fomine; her longtime coaching consultant, Nick Saviano; and her longtime agent, Gary Swain; as well as Max Eisenbud, the hard-driving IMG vice president who represents, among others, Maria Sharapova and Madison Keys.
“We’ve got a very long view,” Konstantin Anisimov said. “We are very happy she is doing way better than we expected, to be honest with you, but at the same time we are staying very calm and understanding that she is young. She is still growing, and she is definitely not ready to play a full schedule and at age 16. She is not allowed to play a full schedule. So we are trying to do more quality than quantity.”
But this is the comment which really got me, veteran José Higueras who has coached Chang, Courier, Bruguera, Moya , Sampras and Federer (!) and knows a good player when he sees one and who is not exactly know for hyperbole said her two-handed backhand was "already one of the best in the professional game " !
Q. There is a lot of talk about your backhand out there, that impressive shot. Can you just talk about that shot in your game, the importance of that?
AMANDA ANISIMOVA: Yeah, I really like my backhand. A lot of people tell me I set it up really well. I just really feel when I’m on court I don’t really have bad days with it. I don’t really have a favorite shot. I think all of my shots are equally pretty good. My backhand is really good, too. I don’t really prefer it over any other shot.
Pliskova has a very good record against players ranked outsde the top 100 and top 50 very good, but to think of Anisimova as being of that level just feels wrong even if she was #149 last week, she will be top 20 as soon as her age/schedule allows.
Pliskova was forced to come back from 1-5 down in the opening set against Irina-Camelia Begu in R1 and had to work extremely hard against Zhang Shuai, eventually prevailing 7-5 5-7 6-3. Pliskova had won all six of their previous meetings and she clearly exactly in the groove right now and allowed Zhang a huge number of break points (18) and said afterwards that she lacked a competitive edge :
I think my energy dropped a little bit, and at that point when my energy dropped hers went up,” Pliskova said. “She really went for it and was aggressive, going for the shots and even some lucky ones.
“I tried to put my energy up in the beginning of the third set, and she helped me with a few mistakes. Thanks god I served it out. In the third set I think my serve helped me quite a lot.”
I don't know what to do, my head says that it is a step too far and it would even be better for AA and her long term progress to lose this, but my heart says it is has been a long time since I have been so excited by what a teen has shown on the court.
I wrote after the contest .......... She (Osaka) now meets Karolina Pliskova who beat the super impressive Amanda Anisimova in two sets yesterday, but the second went to a breaker and I saw nothing to put me off the 16yo wunderkind !
Anisimova got a wild card for this event and is at "home" with Miami being only 25km from Aventura where she lives. Limited by age in what events she can play, I suspect she will be motivated today to make the most of another opportunity and the court here will not suit Wang as well as Indian Wells and the Chinese player lost to another teenager we discussed a lot last week in Sofya Zhuk recently (1&2 in Dubai) which should offer Anisimova further encouragement. This is very early in Anisimova's career, but she is even money today and will probably be 1.30 the next time the two meet, so we have to try something .
