Miami Open: WTA betting tip: Daria Kasatkina -Venus Williams
Mar 24, 2019
Miami Open: WTA: Daria Kasatkina -Venus Williams
I do not know what has gone wrong with Daria Kasatkina, but she will feature heavily in clay court notes, so I will try and find out ! However, she has gone from "about to dominate the 2018 clay season" (at least in my own mind) and a top 5 ranking, to falling short big time on dirt last year and now, outside the top 20 and, only an isolated tournamnet win in Moscow last October, stopped that from being 30+. These things do happen, class is usually permanent and she has a lot of it and loves the game, so I do not doubt she will be back, but she is a pale shadow of her former self just now. She has not beaten a top 20 player on hard courts since Indian Wells last year, those are not really "hard" are set up perfectly for her, last of those wins there was against Venus 7-5 in the third set, but she was on fire at the time, courts were ideal for her and still, it was so very close. This year Daria lost 2&1 to a player ranked 61 in her first match at Indian Wells, she has won a match in Miami beating #456 Cori Gauff (who she ?) but that tells us nothing, or not as much as the loss in the desert.
Venus beat Carla Suarez Navarro 7-6 6-1 on Friday ahead of which I wrote ........................
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
These two met at the US Open 18 months ago (2017) and I spoke about how CSN liked to play against the tallest players on Tour and her solid h2h record against Venus .............
I sided with Carla Suarez Navarro against an in form Ekaterina Makarova on Friday ............
I feel a little disloyal opposing Kvitova and similarly here, as Ekaterina Makarova has served us so well in the past and especiallyon this hard court swing, where we are 4/4 siding with her in some way, notes on the last, where she lost, but only by one game to Sloane Stephens are reproduced at the foot of this email.
If odds here were 2.0-2.0 I would probably side with Makarova, but they are not and we have to go with the value. Makarova has a losing career record against the shortest players on Tour, who are also ranked top 50. She trails CSN 2-6 in h2h matches and is 1-3 against her on hardcourts , Navarro she has won the last four, including on grass at Eastbourne 3&1 in the summer when Makarova had almost all the advantages coming in.
Many players do not like facing lefties like Makarova, CSN loves it ! She is 39-26 lifetime, 28-12 against non top 20's but on this surface, in that category she is 11-1 and that alone screams massive value for today. The Spaniard is also 3-1 here in NY in R3 match ups.
She won that in three sets and faces another much taller opponent today in Venus Williams and another against whom she has played well in the past with the two splitting their four hardcourt encounters, three of which have gone the distance. CSN is tough once she gets her teeth into a tournament and has an incredible record against the tallest women on Tour, she is 16-9 on hardcourts versus those like Venus who are 1.83m +, she actually lost 4 of the first 6 of those, so is 14-5 in the last four years, including two wins over CoCo Vandeweghe here in NY.
One of those wins over Venus came here in Miami in 2015 in one of the oddest matches I can recall, Williams won the first set 6-0 and then just six of the next 19 games to lose in three sets. However, Venus has won the four subsequent meetings, three on hard courts and has dropped only six games total in the last three sets and seems to have finally got CSN's "number". Navarro lost 2&0 to a qualifier in her only match at Indian Wells in an hour and that got some very loud alarm bells ringing in my head .CSN has lost her last six starts v top 20 opponents, regardless of current ranking, it is impossible for me to think of Venus as anything other than top 20. Venus was solid in Indian Wells did us a couple of favours and came close to defending semi final ranking points, she has last eight to match here in Miami, so this is big for her. She has 51 career wins in the city and is 15-1 (!) here in this round with 13 wins in two sets and 37-3 (!) in this event v players ranked 21+. Odds don't feel correct.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Kasatkina also currently makes that 20+ ranking that Venus has such a brilliant record against and odds are similar and have to be taken.
2 units Venus Williams -2.5 games 1.97 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro..............best alternative 2-0 in sets.
Good Luck.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Sport: