Once again Flu bossed the game ......26 attempts, 20 inside the box, 10 on target. 10 saves, 4 big chances missed and it is becoming a bit of a broken record, but they are clearly better than results indicate and their need is great and they have scored most of their goals late with 18 of 19 goals scored after the 31st minute, which also mirrors when Fortaleza fade (see stats) and we have to give the visitors another chance at these odds.

 

That worked out to plan with Flu scoring after the break to win 1-0, it was three much needed points and by winning their game in hand (this) it would take them above Cruzeiro and out of the drop zone and the world would look a far happier place in the red,green and white part of Rio. However, playing just three days later, again on the road and in Sao Paulo some 3,000km from Fortaleza and facing Palmeiras who are looking for a third title in four years, is not the team or venue they would have chosen, infact, it would have been very close to the bottom of that list ! I suspect what they would have really liked was a nice free midweek to build up to a home game and to bask in the warm and long forgotten glow of a win ! But here we are. They came on very strong in the second half agaisnt Fortaleza and might have scored more, there was/is lengthy film of the day on the club website, not of the game, those highlights are pretty short, but the build up and post match time spent together as a squad and with the coaching staff, it looks a very together group, way too good to go down IMO and they remain a team to keep on our side.

 

Palmeiras are 3rd, four points off second, six off  the top of the table, with this game in hand, so just as vital a fixture for them. The hosts are coming off a 2-1 win at Goais, their first league victory since mid June when they went into the Copa America break on the back of 10 staright wins ! They have won 4/14 since the international hiatus , with one clean sheet in 7 and having blown a big lead at the top of the table and eliminated from both the Copa do Brasil and Copa Libertadores, all this has got to them and ill discipline has become an issue, with a player sent off in 3 of their last 4 starts. I guess there could be worse times to come to Palmeiras in that regard. Last three domestic home starts for the hosts have seen a 1-1 draw with Vasco ( 15th) , 2-2 draw with Bahia and 2-1 loss to Gremio (when a draw would have taken them to the Copa L semi final ). They also played Sunday in Goiania which gives them 24 hours less recovery time and I suspect Flu would have been able to have a full training session yesterday, which Palmeiras would have missed out on and that is a big edge. I think we have to stick with Fluminense at these big odds and I would not even rule out the "upset" away win at odds of circa 8.50 .