What's happening in La Liga .................
Oct 16, 2019
Inside the box : La Liga:
Real Madrid +29
Barcelona +13
Atletico Madrid +23
Granada -8
Sevilla +44
Sociedad -12
Valencia -15
Bilbao +4
Levante -35
Osasuna -1
Villarreal +26
Gatafe +23
Valladolid -25
Eibar +5
Betis -28
Celta -24
Alaves -19
Mallorca -16
Espanyol -2
Leganes +18
Figures alongside each team are their net ITB numbers through 8 games, that's chances created, minus those given up, for example, Real Madrid are 74-45=29.
Granada, Sociedad, Levante and Valencia all look to be performing above ITB stats, with Sevilla, Villarreal, Getafe, Espanyol and Leganes not quite having had as much luck .
XP suggest that Leganes +7.94, Villarreal +5.28 and Espanyol +3.24 should all have more points on board and that Barcelona should actually be circa 3 points behind each of Real, Atletico and Sevilla and that is backed up by ITB attempts. In actual fact, Barce are -5 ITB across their last six starts, "losing" two by 4 or more and not winning any by more than +2.
Teams at the foot of the table are almost always "under performing" which stands to reason, as you don't get there by good fortune smiling upon you, but the Leganes numbers, both of them, are extreme through 8 games and suggest there is big improvement to come.
Sevilla, Leganes, Villarreal, 5th,13th ,14th respectively in 2018-19 were each 6-8 points under XP last season and you can say numbers must be wrong, or the trio super unlucky, but the likelihood is that all three should see an upturn in results from from here on in.
Likewise, Espanyol were 7th last season and have had to deal with that Thursday-Sunday Europa League turnaround, which they are slowly coming to terms with and they are actually +10 ITB since Matchday 3.
Sevilla 80 and Villarreal on 79 have had the most attempts ITB, leaders Real are third on 74. Levante have conceded the most and it is not even close at 97, that is 12.12 pg and increases to 13.6 over their last five starts.
Some really interesting numbers in La Liga and it really feels like a league that will repay following in the coming months.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box.
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good Luck.
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