Thanksgiving Day today and all three NFL holiday games have been previewed for subscribers along with three Europa League and two Brazilian Serie A fixtures.

 

There is a NFL sample from Monday below as there will be a fantastic offer here on the website shortly and a chance to get hold of a copy of all todays notes.

 

 

 

 

A week is a long time in politics in sport, six is a lifetime and we got 2.50 for the Niners to win in LA against the Rams then, we are asked to give up points today to back the Ravens, but it still feels like the way to go and best value option with this almost a repeat and good match up for Baltimore. Ahead of that 49ers game my lengthy notes included .................

 

It helps that he has the NFL's best run offense. The Niners are averaging 200 yards rushing per game.

That last line is part of the reason they have not had to call on Jimmy G too often. The Niners are giving up the second fewest first downs in the NFL, they have the #5 ranked defense against the run, the #2 versus the pass, they have the #1 ranked offense running, only Baltimore are even close to their 200 yards pg, it is 34 more than the third best team in the league. Today they play a good team in the Rams, but SF are giving up 7.4 first downs less than LA, next biggest differential in any match up today is 4.8 and after that 3.2 ! They are allowing 4.3 points less in the first half and 8.2 (!) in the second than the Rams and I do not see LA having the ball enough to do sufficient damage to this Niners team today and to be honest, I am VERY excited by SF.

The offense is clicking like never before under  head coach Kyle Shanahan, they’re top five in yards per game, rushing yards and points per game. They rushed for those 200 yards, despite losing Tevin Coleman for two starts, he returned v the Browns rushing for 97 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown, this is a team with running options the like of which we may never have seen before. This is what really gets me excited, the NFL is a passing game now, but the Niners do something no one else does, it is not really a throwback, as it is so explosive and no less dynamic than the pass , it also means teams are not used to seeing or dealing with it and the Niners are ahead of the game. They have always been an innovative franchise, think of the West Coast offense under Bill Walsh, I spent a lot of time in SF then and Rice and Montana were a thing of beauty, although Jerry Rice, who will always be top 10 in the GOAT, would have made Baker Mayfield look world class !

The Niners defense is playing with an intensity we have not seen for so long in SF and they have 11 turnovers through four games, after just 7 all season in 2018. Kwon Alexander was a very big acquisition in the off season and brought some oomph with him, he recorded three tackles in the first quarter against Tampa Bay before being ejected, but then followed up with six and seven tackles the following two weeks. Fred Warner continues to rack up tackles too with 25 on the season to follow a rookie year where he finished with 124.So many plus points, amongst the Tight Ends especially, if there is a weakness, everyone comes up with the wide receivers, but Dante Pettis came up big when required against the Steelers and as I started by saying, the receivers and Jimmy G have not been required to do much yet.

49 ers won that 20-7 and it was easier than even that scoreline suggests. The Rams are 6-4 now, they have beaten the Falcons/Bengals and Bears subsequently but that trio are not very good and cannot do what the Ravens and Niners can.

 

I am not going to reproduce all the notes on the Ravens but last week I wrote ........... The Texans are a good solid team and likely to be involved in the post season, but they feel like a good match up for the Ravens, the Houston running game is good and their biggest offensive strength, they are ranked #4, but the Ravens are #1 and 54.4 yards pg better which is the same difference as that between the Texans and the team in 26th ! Houston are good at defending the run, but they have not faced the Ravens yet, or anyone close, their two losses came versus top 10 ranked rushing teams and their six wins versus teams who are an average of 16th + on the ground. Texans are vulnerable to the pass, but seem to think that Jackson and the Ravens cannot play through the air and have spoken all week about aiming to take the run away from Baltimore (not going to happen IMO) and make them throw, seems odd that your aim would be to make the opposition do something you are bad at defending, but I guess it makes sense of sorts ! Houston will be tested to the max by the running game of the Ravens the like of which they have not seen before and if Baltimore do have to pass, and they will mix it up, that is a weakness of the Texans.

 

Baltimore won that 41-7 and it was not even that close !

 

A couple of weeks earlier I noted ........ As good as (Lamar) Jackson looked ahead of those two big games, he is better right now and improving week on week and this is the biggest talent to come into the NFL for years, maybe ever (!), he is 22 for goodness sake and the Ravens are building a franchise around him ! He is a whole new ball game and as I said above, will instinctively try to do things (and "know" he can) that virtually every other quarterback would not even contemplate. If he stays injury free and I think his style which is very fluid and kind of languid and that he doesn't pull out of tackles, actually helps and he has the speed of Hermes (not the delivery company, it saddens me I have to add that !). I would highlight his weaknesses at this point and will do so when I find them.

 

I think we have now say again that Jackson has improved still further and TBH his ability is still probably untapped. In what they do (the Pats do other things) the Ravens and Niners are as good as anyone in the league and it is not even close, the rest are way back and, what they do, is what is ideal against the Rams ! This should really only end one way and that is in a touchdown plus win for the Ravens, which will set up the game of the season next week with Baltimore hosting the Niners.