Games are played over one leg.

 

 

 

 

 

 

These are all Ligue 1 ties and they almost always are at this stage of competition, just a couple of Ligue 2 teams have made the last eight in recent seasons.

 

As usual I have looked at recent years to see how these games have historically played out to give us some idea of what to expect and it is always good to have a starting point.

 

Last eight quarter finals, that's 32 games have played out 15-5-12 (1X2) with 17 producing 3 or more goals, 7 with 4 or more, just six with one goal or less (about 3.5 fewer than in the league).

 

In terms of Coupe de la Ligue, that is fewer goals than we normally expect at the upper end, but more with exactly three plus than a standard Ligue 1 game and "interestingly" if we take the PSG games out of the mix, the "over 2.5 total" rises to 56%.

 

This is the competition where PSG have been more vulnerable and they have missed out on 3 of the eight semi finals, losing twice at this stage, including at home to a Guingamp team who were eventually relegated.

 

So more games than usual with 2+ goals in prospect and significantly so if we leave PSG out of the equation and those giants of French football are more vulnerable than usual, although might be motivated by last season's "humiliation" on home soil. Also fewer draws which "helps".

 

In terms of ITB Reims have a +21 differential over Strasbourg and +16 for the last six games.

 

Lyon are +105 and +38 respectively.

 

Lille +87 and +49.

 

PSG are +133 and +45.

 

Reims are very comfortable in 6th place, they also have a game in hand which would take them fourth and within two points of a Champions League spot, heady days indeed ! They were Ligue 2 in 2018.

 

Strasbourg are 11th but only a point behind Reims but have played a game more, they have no relegation issues and I think we can expect both teams to give the game their best.

 

Lyon will be disappointed to be 12th, they are SO much better than that, but are still in the Champions League, they have up to 7 points+ to make up on many teams to secure CL football for next season and that has to be priority #1 and as such, their trip to Bordeaux on Saturday will be their biggest game of the week.

 

Brest are 15th but three points below the team immediately above them and just 5 above the drop zone and are posting Ligue 1 worst ITB numbers and XGA says they should have conceded an additional 9 goals. They are in the relegation scrap and having just been promoted, survival will be priority #1, 2 and 3 ! Promotion took them six seasons to achieve and they will not have forgotten those struggles and travel to basement club Toulouse on Saturday, a game both will see as vital. The two trips are circa 3,800 KM total, it is a ten hour road trip to Lyon, train is not an option, so I assume they will fly

 

Lille are 4th two points off Champions League pace having played a game more than third placed Rennes, they were second last season and have got a taste once more for CL football, XP puts them #2 again and their target will be top 3 and nothing else in the league, they have a tricky trip to Dijon on Sunday and then play PSG, so the away game is "must win".

 

Amiens are in the relegation playoff spot, but are within a point of two teams and have a game in hand, they host Montpellier on Saturday and will surely give that priority.

 

For PSG it is all about the Champions League, but that is not for six weeks, they are top of Ligue 1 (of course) by 7 points with a game in hand of Marseille their biggest rival, they have a tough 8 days ahead with this followed by home and away games (one rearranged) with Monaco.

 

St Etienne are 14th ,but only three points off sixth, their numbers are not good . but they would see themselves as an European contender almost by right ( top 8 for 8 straight seasons) and certainly not in any kind of trouble, but they lost 4-0 at home to PSG just 23 days ago and might come with damage limitation in mind.

 

It looks like a round with a heavy home bias.

 

 

 

 

 

When Lyon have lost their way this season it has tended to be after the break and at home in the league, they have a 8-0 first half goals difference, which tumbles to 3-6 in the second half. Brest are 1-7 (goal difference on the road in the opening 30 minutes, OL to look to get this done and dusted as quickly as possible ............