Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures at the end of each line are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last three games, in brackets are the same for the five games preceding those .

 

A quick look at those last eight game numbers will tell you that match ups in Ligue 2 tend to be close, but that only means we should take more notice of those at the extreme end(s).

 

All teams have played 22 games and numbers do not include last night's Grenoble-Le Havre fixture which was the first round of 23 contest.

 

As always, I will add that these are only ever starting points and what we are looking for are teams who are improving , or in decline, especially when that has not yet been fully reflected in results. For example Troyes, I was big on them in early season when numbers suggested they might be the best team in Ligue 2, but gave warnings about them in the last two sets of ITB reports when their numbers tailed off badly, they have now lost three in a row, but what I would now say is that their totals for those three games are better than they "should" be and maybe they can come good again, possibly already are. Not backing them today in a tough game at Lens , but will try and get a good look at them with a view to the next couple of games.

 

 

 

On Friday I previewed Niort- Paris FC and noted ................

 

 

That finished 4-4 and the "over" was covered inside 22 minutes. Crazy game of course, it could easily have been 6-6, there were four penalties (one missed) , most referees would not have awarded three of those, but would probably have given a couple of others ! As you might expect, some of the defending was awful/suicidal at times, but to be honest, I was pretty impressed with Niort as an offensive unit and did not expect to be writing those words anytime soon. Their approach play and passing was good, actually pretty slick at times and they had several players happy to run at and take on defenders, in fact, most of them were and they looked very together as a group (you can often learn a lot about the spirit within a team with how goals are celebrated and the reaction when conceded, especially when they are struggling) and they did not look or feel like a bottom 3 team , which numbers have suggested they are all season. Today they make the trip up to Caen who are a bigger club and played Ligue 1 last season, but had their budget halved for this season and whilst it was still decent by L2 standards, it meant changes and they have, like many before, struggled with the transition back to the second tier.

 

Niort overall numbers are very bad and they are easy to score against, BUT I liked what I saw in terms of offensive play and that team spirit remains high. Caen have given up a L2 high 30 attempts on their goals in their last three starts and I expect to see goals in this and the game in Paris, where PFC home games have averaged 2.9 goals per start. They host third placed Ajaccio who have had bottom half numbers all season, but who have suddenly found 26 attempts ITB on their opponents goals in their last two starts and increase of 7 pg over their average for the season. The Corsican team have been happier on the road all season (7 wins) and these are exactly the kind of game they have thrived in ( winning 7 from 7 away to teams 10th or lower in L2). They should get chances tonight, seem the more likely winner, but PFC will throw everything at them given their league position and desperate need .