UEFA Champions League betting tip:
Feb 19, 2020
UEFA Champions League:
Yesterday I wrote ...................
Round of 16 knockout stage begins today, the last five seasons, that's 40 first leg ties have played out thus, 16 homes, 10 draws, 14 aways, very close and more draws than we usually see in the competition, but to be expected with so much at stake and teams having waited since December to play these games, with over two months to prepare for already well known opposition. This round is seeded, so perhaps a little surprising that homes have a slight edge, but across a relatively small sample it is minimal.
Of those 16 home wins, 8 came by a single goal and 8 by 2+, perhaps it is noteworthy that 10 of the 14 away wins were by 2+ goals, so when the "stronger" teams do win it is often emphatically.
17 games were "under 2.5 goals, 23 "over" , eight landed exactly on 3, so a noteworthy 15 had four or more goals and if you do intend to bet goals, I would suggest better value with "over" the 3.0 to 3.5 lines than sticking with 2.5.
18 home teams and 17 playing on the road scored 2+ goals, 12 of each failed to score.
Atalanta- Valencia
Tottenham Hotspur- RB Leipzig
These are funny games as they feature two teams in Atalanta and Leipzig I have been very complimentary about and facing two in Tottenham and Valencia I have had issues with, but things are not always that straightforward in Europe.
I wrote the following ahead of Atalanta's recent home game with Genoa and it , hopefully, highlights just how sensational their numbers have been this season .....................
Atalanta are coming off a 7-0 win at Torino and that highlights just how sensational they have been offensively this season and their numbers are simply incredible. Yes, Torino finished the game with 9 men, but Atalanta were already five up by the time of the first dismissal and 7 when the second red card was awarded.
When I updated the ITB numbers for Serie A at New Year, ATL were a net +111 for the season ( the top 3 , Inter, Juve , Lazio 71, 68, 69 respectively) and were 70-30 (created-conceded) for their last five starts. They have played four games subsequently , put up ITB individual game numbers of 15-0, 12-3, 18-9, 20-6 for those and scored 14 goals. They are +158 for the season and that gives them a +201 differential over Genoa and it is very difficult to make a strong case for the visitor even keeping this close on those numbers. XP suggests ATL should be 5 points better off , but also gives Genoa an extra 10 and says they should have scored over 7 more goals. They are coming off a 0-0 draw at Fiorentina where, to be honest, they impressed me, they launched a series of fast counter attacks ( and will obviously get the chance to do that today !) and created a number of good chances, missed a penalty and home keeper Bartlomiej Dragowski was MOTM with seven saves and it was not even close, he was awarded a player rating of 9.2, next highest was 7.8 !
Valencia's numbers have been way short of expected levels and ahead of a trip to struggling Mallorca last month I noted ..............
Valencia are 7th and firmly in contention for a Champions League place and as such, should be motivated today, but their ITB numbers of -58 for the season and 34-60 for the last six games are awful and there is little doubt they have been fortunate at times and have prioritised their current European campaign and they have a very win-able last 16 Champions League match on the near horizon.
Mallorca are in trouble, they are 18th and in the drop zone and whilst they might be level on points with Celta in 17th, they are 7 adrift of the team one place higher and they desperately need to hang on in there and hope that at least one more team tailspins into the scrap at the bottom. Their ITB numbers are -56 for the season, 34-64 for the last six games, not good, but almost identical to Valencia's and given their need is at least as great, they are at home (where they have collected 14 of their 15 points) and odds are big, that has to make us sit up and take notice.
Los Che lost that 4-1, they briefly picked up after, but have just a draw from their last three starts and conceded 7 goals total, 2+ in each and their ITB stats remain bottom 4-6 and XP suggests they should have 7.5 points fewer and XGA that they should have conceded an additional six La Liga goals.
Early in the New Year I wrote what I think was a pretty good piece on Tottenham and their issues ...................
I do not want to discuss too many teams in detail at this stage, better to do that when we preview their games, but the triple red numbers about Tottenham, Newcastle and Aston Villa have to give big cause for concern . The Spurs total of 29 chances inside the box created in their last five is awful for any non bottom six team , let alone a Big 6 club and they have now lost Harry Kane for a significant period of time, but his and Tottenham's issues go far deeper.
Kane remains a deadly finisher when he gets the chance and few players hit the ball harder, or more accurately, but his XG per attempt has decreased and, the penalty spot aside, he is not having enough attempts on goal with his numbers down from six per game in 2017-18 (his golden season) to half that this time around and it is the real quality (short range) attempts that have dried up. Those from within the penalty box have decreased greatly and from inside 8 metres they have largely disappeared altogether, in 17-18 he took 42 shots (equates to 23.2 through 21 games) from that range and had an XG of 10.5, this season 4 attempts and a 0.77 XG and around the goal, he has lost over a quarter of an expected goal per game which is HUGE across 21 and/or 38 games. I do not know how much is down to the famous "ankle" and now we have hamstring issues, or because he is dropping too deep and wide trying to do too much and there are some arguments that this is/was stifling them offensively. I would not blame him for that, someone has to take responsibility and he has tried to do so on the pitch, but the lack of investment off of it is coming home to roost. Where is the back up striker, the right back (if Serge Aurier is the answer, I have no idea what the question was !), the holding midfielder (there isn't one )?
Tottenham have been pretty awful in all five league and cup starts over the holiday period, beat only Brighton (fortunately) and played one Championship and three bottom 7 teams in that sequence. Jose Mourinho has a lot of work to do in the coming months and needs the purse strings to be loosened.
Spurs have played six games subsequently, they have not lost and actually won four,beating Southampton (cup), Villa, Manchester City and Norwich, drawing with Watford and Saints (cup), if we look at the three games against non bottom 4 teams (Saints twice and Man City) Tottenham "lost" by a combined 17-9 (attempts on target), 11-5 BC's, 31-15 ITB and hit woodwork 3-0 and they have ridden an awful lot of luck to still be in the cup and up to 5th in the league.
Leipzig were leading Bundesliga over Christmas and during the break revised ITB numbers put them second to only Bayern and well ahead of the pack, they were on fire at the time and I noted ..........
Leipzig have sensational last six numbers, averaging 15-6 (created- conceded) ITB pg.
They have gone 2-2-1 since the restart and lost their lead to Bayern at the top of the table, but only by a single point and their numbers have remained good, they are a combined 8-1 in BC's over their last two starts which includes a trip to Munich where they kept the Bavarian giants scoreless and a confidence boosting 3-0 defeat of Bremen last weekend.
So there you have the background of the four teams.
So it should be Atalanta and Leipzig, well, maybe !
Already without Kane, Tottenham have now lost Son Heung-min, seemingly for the rest of the campaign, that leaves 27-year-old Brazilian Lucas Moura, 22-year-old Dutchman Steven Bergwijn, signed in January, and Republic of Ireland international Troy Parrott as Tottenham's only fit forwards, though Mourinho believes 18-year-old Parrott "is not ready" to play at senior level.
Despite not playing since New Year's Day, Kane remains Spurs top scorer in the league with 11 goals and 2 assists, Son is next with 9 goals and 8 assists, some crossover there but a contribution to 30 goals between them and Tottenham have only won once without a goal or assist from either. In the CL, the pair have 11 goals and an assist and lost the only game either missed this season (3-1 to Bayern, without Kane), the pair both missed the home CL game with Ajax last season which the Dutch club won 1-0.
XP puts Tottenham 9th in the PL , on a par with Brighton and Southampton and that has been around their true level and that has been WITH at least one of Kane or Son. Leipzig can be considered only inferior to Bayern and not by much and well clear of the rest of the Bundesliga, Bayern scored 10 against Spurs in two group games including 7 here in London and any value, even at these quotes is with the visitor for me.
2 units RB Leipzig -0.25 ball 2.41 asian line/Sportmarket.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
The final Atalanta- Valencia analysis is for clubgowi subscribers and those taking part in the free trial only.
Good Luck.
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