I previewed the two first legs of these ties as a "job lot" and provided a great deal of background information ..............

 

 

 

Atlanta won 4-1, but Valencia did score that late goal to keep the tie alive to at least some degree. It was an odd game, with the Spanish club producing four BC's ( all missed) and the Italian team just three (scoring with two of those), Valencia were also +8 with ITB attempts and hit the woodwork and quite reasonably, Los Che felt very hard done by with the result in Milan. However, they will be playing behind closed doors at the Mestalla and without top scorer Maxi Gomez and starting CB partnership of Ezequiel Garay and Gabriel Paulista (both also sat out the first leg). Valencia have not kept a clean sheet in seven, not since Garay and Paulista last played in tandem and they have shipped 15 goals in that sequence. Having to take chances with a weakened backline and no crowd urging them on makes this feel like a very tall order indeed against a team as potent at Atlanta are offensively. The visitors have played once since the first leg winning 7-2 (!) away to Lecce where they had 25 attempts on goal, 19 ITB, 10 on target with 9 BC's (!) four of which they missed and they really are a fearless and relentless offensive unit. But it was announced last night that Italy is in basic lockdown over the coronavirus outbreak and there is no knowing how that might effect players sitting in a hotel room 1,300 km from home.

 

However, Valencia have named just five denders for this evening, two right, one left and one centre back (Diakhaby), the other is a B team central defender with 44 minutes of first team action, as they really going to throw him in against arguably the most potent strike force in Europe ? Or will they play someone out of position, neither seems ideal. Having said all that, Valencia should have scored 3 in Milan and got behind the Atalanta backline almost at will at times and there is a chance that the visitors might look to sit on their lead a little more than normal and that doesn't play to their strengths.

 

Leipzig won 1-0 in London, but could have been three up inside the first 15 minutes and were much the better team, Son and Kane remain out for Spurs and now Steven Bergwijn and Ben Davies are also sidelined. Add in that Erik Lamela pulled out of the Wolves game and was then taken off at Burnley last weekend as a precaution and that record signing Tanguy Ndombele has been slammed in the media for his "lack of effort" and it is difficult to see where the inspiration or goals are going to come from. Leipzig are clearly only inferior to Bayern domestically and look as close in level to the Bavarian giants when things click as almost any German team in recent years and I do not doubt they could win this by 2-3 goals if they really wanted to. When Leipzig do win it is almost always emphatically, with 13 of their last 15 wins coming by 2+ goals , the two games they feel short in were the first leg, where they could have scored 4 and a game where they were coasting at 3-0 up away to the basement team and just switched off, so they could easily be 15/15 in that run.

 

Tottenham stats were poor before the loss of Harry Kane, at best they were an average Premier League side on those numbers and now without the prolific scorer and most of their other main offensive options and, with no one picking up the slack, having to gamble this evening with a head coach for whom they doesn't come easily , or seemingly able to motivate his squad, it is hard to see a way back for the visitors.

 

Not sure where any of that leaves us !!!!

 

I know that ATL are not your typical Italian team, but their region does have other distractions and I still feel they might set up to protect their lead and my head is saying odds on the home win are still too big despite all the Valencia issues and the visitors have already shipped 9 goals in three competition away starts.

 

Leipzig to follow Bayern and complete the double over Spurs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real have had a decent couple of months, they have still not found huge consistency, but are in the final of the Copa del Rey after a quarter final win away to Real Madrid and where they will play their biggest rival Athletic Bilbao and are back in contention in the league, after wins over Athletic, Valencia and Valladolid, they did lose at the weekend away to Barcelona, but kept the Catalan giants at bay for 81 minutes and doubtless had one eye on this upcoming fixture, where three points would take them level on points with Getafe (behind on h2h) in 4th the final Champions League place and they rested players against Barce with this game in mind. This is another Basque derby with the two clubs just 50 km apart. Eibar are struggling, just 2 points above the drop zone and are desperate for a 7th straight season in the top flight, despite that relative stability, they remain a small club and their budget is barely more than the three promoted teams and is basically "just" last season's share of TV revenue . They are coming off a 2-1 home loss to one of those promoted teams in Mallorca at the weekend and lost the reverse fixture 4-1 in early season. The hosts are without suspended CB Paulo Olivera (1-2-4 in his absence, conceding 2.0 goals pg...........1.25 when he plays) and might have to make other changes to their backline, the head coach also made it clear that his team struggle with a quick turnaround as they like to press so hard and spoke much about this in pre match interview yesterday. Away win.