Bundesliga: all stats updated after the midweek round of games .............

football betting tips -

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 26 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

I hope that some of you got to see those , Hertha won 4-0 and the table highlighted almost all red (poor) numbers for Schalke who lost at home to struggling Augsburg 3-0 , only other teams with multiple red numbers were Freiburg who lost at home to 20th placed Bremen and Hoffenheim who could not beat basement club Paderborn. Only top 6 team with any red type were BMG who lost 3-1 at home to Leverkusen. clubgowi carry these numbers for all 10 leagues that we cover and they can frequently be found on the website and are always worth a quick look before placing any bets.

 

The top 8 on ITB numbers (with only 7 teams on positive numbers) are ..........
 
Bayern +183
Leipzig +126
Leverkusen +77
Frankfurt +75
Dortmund +67
Koln +37 
Wolfsburg +31
BMG -9
 
XP sees the top 8 as the same, albeit in different order .......
 
Bayern 63 pts
Leipzig 59
Dortmund 53
BMG 50
Leverkusen 48
Wolfsburg 47
Frankfurt 40
Koln 38
 
Top 8 for ITB over the last 8 games make interesting reading with a couple of surprise entries.............
 
Bayern +51
Leipzig +34
Koln +30
Frankfurt +25
Dortmund +22
Hertha +14
Wolfsburg +4
Fortuna -2
 
Stay safe and good luck !
 

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