What's at stake, current form plus updated ITB and xP numbers for tonight's seven Championship games..................
Jul 14, 2020
Championship:
Three rounds left to play.
West Bromwich Albion- Fulham
WBA net ITB for the season: +125
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 64-36
Fulham net ITB for the season: +18
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 31-37
Points difference: WBA +5
xP difference: WBA +12
Albion need 7 points to guarantee their return to the Premier League . Fulham are five points further back in 4th, they are already assured of a playoff spot, would keep top 2 dreams alive with a point, but really need to win to have a realistic chance. They have won four in a row and not conceded in 382 minutes, they did lose their first two restart games, at home to Brentford 2-0 (no shame in that .......only joking !) and away to Leeds United , the only two other teams above them in the table. But they did have a few half chances to take the lead in the first and were the better team for an hour at Elland Road, missed a number of clear chances and were denied an obvious looking penalty when the game was still in the balance. Marcelo Bielsa seemed to agree and said afterwards :"In the first half it was difficult for us to recover the ball in the opponents' half and when we were close to our box we lost it again quickly."That is why the first half was better for them than for us.
First goal is key, WBA have lost 5 of their last 6 when conceding the opener and Fulham have won 13/14 when scoring first. Also, Fulham tend to finish their season strongly at this level, in 2016-17 they took 37 points from their final 17 starts, 32 from 13 games in 17-18 and were running into that same kind of form pre lockdown and the break probably hurt them more than most, but they appear to be back on track now.
Reading- Middlesbrough
Reading net ITB for the season: -57
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 34-42
Boro net ITB for the season: -39
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 46-53
Points difference: Reading +9
xP difference: Boro +18
Reading are safe in midtable, Boro are 3 points above the drop zone, they have won 3/4 away starts and have kept clean sheets on 4/6 trips to the Madejski, winning the last two.
Wigan Athletic- Hull City
Wigan net ITB for the season: -41
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 39-34
Hull net ITB for the season: -53
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 51-54
Points difference: Wigan +9 (pre deduction).
xP difference: Wigan +27
The 12 point deduction for Wigan leaves them 3 points from safety, Hull are the team in 21st they are hoping to catch and Athletic would actually pass City with the win, given their superior goal difference.
Wigan have lost just 1/12, have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 and actually won 7 of the last 10.
Despite that awesome defensive record for Wigan, this is a fixture that produces goals and the last 7 h2h meetings have all had 3+.
Cardiff City- Derby County
Cardiff net ITB for the season: -25
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 37-52
Derby net ITB for the season: -57
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 35-47
Points difference: Cardiff +3
xP difference: Cardiff +5
City have lost their last two, but remain in the final playoff position, they have six teams within four points, one of whom is Derby who are 3 behind.
Luton Town- QPR
Luton net ITB for the season: -166
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 27-61
QPR net ITB for the season: -10
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 30-51
Points difference: QPR +9
xP difference: QPR +27
QPR are safe by virtue of their goal difference. Luton are a point from safety and buoyed by a 2-0 win away to Huddersfield on Friday night which also gave them a longer period of rest, Rangers are struggling, they have scored just twice in six starts (5 defeats) and are coming off a 3-0 home defeat to Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend, where they had just one attempt on target.
Millwall- Blackburn Rovers
Millwall net ITB for the season: +32
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 45-39
Rovers net ITB for the season: -17
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 35-50
Points difference: Millwall +2
xP difference: Millwall +3
Millwall are 9th, two points off sixth place, Rovers are 12th a further 2 points back, both teams have three win-able fixtures remaining and probably need 9 points to have a chance of reaching the playoffs, a point for both seems almost worthless.
Rovers have scored 2 goals on their last four trips to the New Den and won the reverse fixture 2-0, they score a lot of early goals on the road (9 in the opening 15 minutes), something which we have discussed multiple times this season .
Sheffield Wednesday- Huddersfield Town
Wednesday net ITB for the season: +97
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 53-39
Town net ITB for the season: -84
ITB (created-conceded) for the six restart games: 33-38
Points difference: Wednesday +8
xP difference: Wednesday +24
Wednesday are "safe" but still have a possible points deduction hanging over them, they were expecting to know their fate yesterday, maybe the club do, but it has not been announced as I type. They are 11 points above the drop zone, if this was a 12 point deduction, they would be one from safety of course . Unless and until we know otherwise, we have to think that the Owls will want as many points as possible on board to ensure their Championship status in a worst case scenario. Town are three points above the drop zone, play WBA on Saturday and finish away to Millwall next midweek, things could quickly turn sour for them and this is a team who have a 20.17% win rate, 56.3% loss rate across three seasons (119 league games). They had a terrible loss at home to Luton on Friday night and need to bounce back .
Stay safe and good luck !
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