These have been the two best teams in Italy post lockdown.  With Atalanta going 8-2-0 through their 10 starts and Milan 7-2-0 from a game less.

 

All season long we have spoken of Atalanta having Serie A best numbers and they are a whopping + 247 for ITB, which is circa 100 better than anyone else, Milan are sixth best on +94 , Xp puts the visitors top on 71 pts, 10 more than ACM who come in 5th.

 

The xGD numbers make interesting reading as despite Atalanta being a super impressive offensive team they suggest that the team from Bergamo should have scored fewer but also conceded less too. For Milan it indicated they should have both scored more and conceded fewer goals. Recent starts have seen games reflect that with Atalanta post a 1-1 road draw and 1-0 home win after scoring 2.82 and giving up 1.30 pg prior to that. Milan have won their last two by a combined 7-2 and to be honest it might have been 10 or 11 goals scored.

 

Through the last 9 starts, pretty much post lockdown, ACM are 95-49 (created-conceded) for ITB and ATL are 93-45 , almost identical numbers, but it is BC's for Milan in those last two games which are really eye catching, they are net +10 (11-1) 5-0 at home to Bologna and 6-1 away to Sassuolo who have probably been the third best team in the league since the restart and scoring for fun ! Atalanta also hosted Bologna at the weekend and created just a single BC, so a good and recent comparison between the two, with both Bologna games played in the last six days.

 

Since the restart ,Milan have beaten Roma 2-0 and Juventus 4-2 at the San Siro, won away to Lazio (3-0) and Sassuolo (2-1) drawing in Naples (2-2) and posted similar numbers to Atalanta through the toughest games possible, it is the six BC's created on Tuesday I keep coming back too and my original thinking was that I/we had to side with them today at these odds. However, team news ! Atalanta are without suspended WB Timothy Castagnewho can play on either flank, when he plays 22 minutes or less the team both score ( 2.89 pg ) and concede (1.5pg) more. Milan are without a whole host of potential starters , eight total, defensive midfielder Ismael Bennacer is suspended, while defensive trio Alessio Romagnoli, Theo Hernandez and Andrea Conti are now injured.That leaves only two fit CB's at the club, three of the back four from Tuesday are unavailable and it will be an untried backline with a midfielder at LB and without the protection of Bennacer in from of them. Offensively they will pose a threat and Milan have scored 2+ goals in their last 9 starts , but you do feel a makeshift backline is not going to keep Atalanta out for long regardless of how the hosts set up and that offense will be the best form of defense for the Rossoneri.

 

Atalanta have avoided defeat in the last five meetings in the San Siro which feels like a second home for them now after playing their Champions League games here. As impressive as Milan have been it feels like time for atalanta to get motivated and turn it on again and they should get chances to do so against an untried home defensive unit.