Italy Serie A betting tip: Sassuolo- Internazionale
Nov 28, 2020
Italy Serie A: Sassuolo- Internazionale
Sassuolo have been clubgowi's team in 2020 and landed a host of huge odds bets , we sided with them away to Verona last week, but their trip to Napoli at the start of the month give us more background information and that game is against a very similar opponent to the one they face this afternoon...........
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Odds for Sassuolo are north of 7.0 as I start typing and as good as Napoli are, we have to find a way to get involved with the visitors at those odds as they are so good offensively and score so many goals.
Last week I updated the Serie A stats and noted ...............
Sassuolo are "our" team and have continued to serve us ridiculously well post lockdown, they continue on their merry way and are averaging a league high 14 attempts ITB each game and are also a Serie A best net +7 each game.
They have scored 15 goals in their last four starts, unfortunately their most recent was a 3-3 draw with Torino ahead of which I wrote.............
Since writing those stats through (almost) mid last season (see above) Torino have fallen to the level indicated as likely and collected just 19 points from 25 starts, conceding at the rate of 2.08 goals per game, with a 20% win rate. If we stretch their BC numbers for this campaign to four games, they are 6-12.5, which mirrors Sassuolo's 13-7 and the differences are even more stark if we look at ITB. You know I am only going one way with this, notes on the hosts last start , which was yet another remarkable showing at Bologna went a lot like this ........
Sassuolo really have been the gift that keeps on giving post lockdown and they have landed a huge number of bets for us, all at good prices, including several successful double bet games. One of those was this exact fixture about three months ago when my very lengthy notes included .................
Sassuolo won that 3-1 and followed up with a 4-2 win over Lecce at the weekend, they have now scored 17 in their last six and probably wish there were 20 games remaining ! They have moved into the top 10 now , one point behind Bologna and a win today could take them 8th and I think they will look to ride the momentum for as long as the season allows. They are certainly on fire offensively, they have scored on their last four trips to Bologna and won the reverse fixture 3-1 , with 20 attempts, 7 on target, 12 ITB and created 5 BC's. Now the really good news, Bologna have not kept a clean sheet in 26 starts which is incredible considering they are 9th, their last at home was back in August ! In that 26 game sequence they have conceded at the rate of 1.73 pg and we have to stick with our tried and tested Sassuolo policy. CM Roberto Soriano is suspended for Bologna, they are 2-3-5 in the ten games he has missed since his arrival in the January 2019 transfer window.
Sassuolo won that 2-1 and went on to finish 19-20 in 8th place , 4 points and 4 spots ahead of Bologna, if we were to stretch Sassuolo's form for the second half of the campaign out over a full season, they performed at a similar level to Napoli and Milan. This season they have collected 7 points and scored 9 goals from their three starts and have continued where they left off, but they are also yet to keep a clean sheet. Bologna have played 11 games since I wrote the notes above (three this season) and are still keeping their record going ( see above) they have not kept a clean sheet in 37 games and will be a full season's worth if/when Sassuolo score today ! Through those 37 starts, they have conceded at the rate of 1.81 goals pg and it is quite difficult to see a team as prolific and attack minded as the visitors not scoring twice. Goals and BTS feel likely too.
Trailing 3-1 early in the second half, Sassuolo scored three unanswered goals to win 4-3, scoring 4 for the third game in a row. It is hard to overly praise them, so I wont bother and will simply finish by saying they do not know when they are beaten, are a joy to watch and create chance after chance. Through the same last 25 games, they have collected 42 points , scored 2.12 goals pg and have a 56% win rate.
That was a bit of an off day for Sassuolo, but they completed 91% of over 700 passes, had 72% of the ball and scored 3 goals and if that is an "off day" it only highlights how very good they have been. This is just about as tough a fixture as you can have in Serie A right now, but Sassulo have had 9 days to prepare and Napoli have played twice in the interim including a trip to San Sebastian to play Sociedad on Thursday, making this a quick turnaround and they also lost Lorenzo Insigne to a minor injury in that game, which was a tough, hard fought encounter.
1.25 units Sassuolo -0.5 ball 6.89 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.40 general quote.
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That could not have played out any better with Sassuolo winning 2-0, we get similarly huge odds today and I just cannot make a case of any kind against not getting involved.
Inter are a strong team and look sure to take the title race down to the wire as a minimum this season, but they look more defensively vulnerable now than at any time I can immediately recall and they have conceded 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 starts, including at home to both Parma and last week Torino and actually trailed 2-0 in each just after the 60 minute mark, but took 4 points from the two games. They also played in Madrid in midweek , losing 2-0 to Real and playing an hour a man short after Arturo Vidal's dismissal which makes for a very tiring week, while Sassuolo have been able to rest up and prepare solely for Inter. Sassuolo scored 6 goals in the two meetings with Inter last season, including a 3-3 draw at the San Siro post lockdown and I expect the hosts to at least score twice today (they have done so in 6 of their last 7 starts), if Torino and Parma can do it, so can they !
2 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.375-2.40 general quote.
1 units Sassuolo -0.5 ball 4.80 general quote.
Good luck !
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