The Sunday email will also be sent @ 10:00 and will include NFL and PGA Tour notes.

 

 

 

I have been (relatively) complementary about these two at different stages this season, Benevento have improved a lot from early season, but still struggle when the onus is on them to make the running and 13 of their 21 points have come on the road and they have only scored 9 goals in 9 home starts, conceding exactly twice as many. For Torino, it was more about them posing FAR more offensive threat than we usually expect from a relegation haunted club and they have scored the most of any bottom half of the table team, both overall and on the road and it is away from Turin that they have been happiest and have collected 8 of their 13 points. One point would be enough for the visitor to move out of the drop zone and that is a huge incentive. Signs that Torino have finally started to tighten up at the back in their last two outings and with the home side having shipped eight in their last two, it has to be the away side off level ball this evening.

 

The Benvento injury and suspension list is getting longer game by game and new Torino head coach Davide Nicola,who has a reputation for "saving" clubs (Genoa last season and the Crotone "great escape" in 2017.......eight points from safety in the third week of March) could not ask for a better run of games to start his tenure and rescue the club he grew up supporting.

 

 

 

 

These two met in Montpellier in early December when we got decent odds about PSG winning by 2+ ........

 

 

PSG won 3-1 and the Parisians remain top of the table, but only by goal difference ahead of Lille and with a strong Lyon side only two points further back and the race is still very much on. PSG have 7 points and six goals fewer than this stage last season and it is easy to make a case for them having regressed a little, but like many of the bigger teams involved in late Champions League action last summer and with a shortened off season, they have an excuse.

 

Not sure exactly what level the opposition is today, Montpellier have now fallen to 11th which feels more in line with their numbers (see above) and they are winless in six, but they have scored 12 goals in eight starts and within that sequence have lost to the four top six teams they have faced PSG, Lille, Marseille and Monaco, but scored in each, twice in two. They "won" attempts and BC's in the reverse fixture, also hit the woodwork in addition to scoring and they can trouble the scoreboard but not stop PSG from a vital win. PSG have returned to a back four under Mauricio Pochettino who will be absent today with COVID issues.  The visitors are without star front man and former Brentford target Andy Delort to injury and midfielder Jordan Ferri is suspended.

 

PSG posted some footage this week of Neymar/Mbappe/Kean/Draxler/Icardi on absolute fire in training and having fun, PSG to win by 3+.......... 4-1/5-1 ?

 

 

 

 

Full Bundesliga stats in the Tuesday newsletter. I expected Dortmund to go on and beat Leverkusen in midweek after they got back on level terms in the second half with a quarter of the game remaining, but it was the home side who got a deserved winner. Dortmund had chances, but Bayer had 23 attempts on goal, 13 on target, with 3 BC's and that is a lot for a top side to give up, doubly so as Leverkusen had only mustered one BC and 10 on target attempts in their previous FOUR starts combined. Add in a 1-1 home draw with Mainz last weekend and suddenly, a concerning few days for Dortmund.

 

BMG threw away two points late at Stuttgart last Saturday a game we have discussed too much already and made hard work of Werder Bremen on Tuesday, but would move 4th with the win today and that is a huge incentive and they have the option of finally going with Thuram - Plea up top. With the former looking for redemption after his shameful spitting suspension, he needs to get back into the good books and asap.  Incredibly, Dortmund have won the last 12 h2h meetings, which makes awful reading, but BMG pose a bigger offensive threat nowadays and the visitors have given up 2.6 BC's on average across their last five starts and odds on the home win are big, so I have to chance a little.