Saturday subscriber newsletter .............
Jan 24, 2021
Saturday January 23rd
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10:00 UK time.
Bundesliga:
Arminia Bielefeld- Eintracht Frankfurt
Freiburg- Stuttgart
Freiburg and Frankfurt played out a thrilling 2-2 draw in midweek and lived up to their recent form and offensive stats, something we touched upon in build up .......
Frankfurt are on the up and net +23 ITB places them #1, +10 for net BC's is joint #1 for the last four games.
As we are already well aware, plenty of entertainment in Freiburg games and their last four starts have seen 25 BC's (14-11), 6.25 pg.
Freiburg have been our team in recent weeks and putting up some stunning numbers and offensive performances. Their run came to an end in Munich at the weekend (notes are at the foot of this email). Bayern were the better team which is no real surprise, but the scoreline was close (2-1) and Freiburg never gave up and showed terrific self belief and were close to equalising late, hitting the woodwork and missing a couple of other chances and there were plenty of positives for them to take from that.
Now they host Frankfurt who are arguably the best team in Germany through the last four starts, at least statistically, BUT, if we extended that to 5-6 games the honour would go to Freiburg and the hosts will take heart from their h2h record in this series, with EF winning on just 1/8 visits and failing to score in five of those. It is a shame the two meet today, but it should be entertaining and fun to watch and a game I am looking forward to. I cannot desert Freiburg, not at these odds, Frankfurt have won 11/35 Bundesliga away starts since November 2018 , that is a 31.43% win rate and I do not see how they can be a 41% + chance to win today against such an in form and free scoring opponent who has got the better of recent h2h games as host.
There were some real injury suspension issues for Freiburg, but it looks likely now that Baptiste Santamaria and Jonathan Schmidwill be able to play which is better than expected.
The pair now face two teams who also faced off in midweek .................
Schalke and Arminia come out bottom 2 in all three statistical categories, Augsburg who are currently 11th in the table, are bottom 3-4 in each .
Stuttgart were very fortunate to ultimately draw with BMG at the weekend, being gifted a penalty with the last action of the game , something I spoke/moaned about yesterday ! Having said that, I was impressed with their play and attacking intent and, winless at home , but with a 5-2-1 away record and 21-9 goal difference, I cannot doubt that they will be happier to be back on the road today. Stuttgart are a net +119 ITB and +39 over Bielefeld who have beyond awful numbers and 70 and 14 chances respectively created, are shameful offensive totals . XP puts the visitors an additional 6 points ahead compared to the real table and even that feels a little flattering to Bielefeld. Hosts have scored just 2 first half goals all season and even if Stuttgart do not take advantage then , it will probably be late with the visitors having a Bundesliga best 11-3 goal difference after the 76th minute.
Late Edit: Stuttgart lose Silas Wamangituka Fundu and Nicolas Gonzalez to suspension after each picked up fifth yellow cards, the pair have 15 goals and 5 assists between them from 32 goals scored. The duo had 21 and 11 respectively in 2.Bundeliga last season, but neither played in this fixture which Stuttgart won 1-0 with a late winner. Shame they both miss out, I still expect the visitors to find a way to win, but I can no longer bet them at these odds and it is too late in the day for me to jump ship and back the home side !
It was a good job we took note of the team news as Stuttgart were a complete no show and lost 3-0, they clearly missed the goal input of the banned duo as the game was 3-3 for BC's, so the away side were creating chances, but not taking advantage and they do get both players back today. Freiburg also has additional options for this afternoon .
I am not buying into Arminia has having turned a corner, far from it, but they do have something to build on now and at low odds Frankfurt's away stats (see above) are a concern, but this is as easy as it gets and the visitors are going to ask Bielefeld far more questions. Frankfurt have Luka Jovic back from Real Madrid on loan for the rest of this season and can alternate him and Andre Silva which increases options and goal threat, especially with these quick turnaround games against "weaker" opposition. Bielefeld have lost all four starts to top 8 teams as host and, home and away have conceded 2.375 goals pg v top eight opposition, just 5 in 9 starts otherwise (something we should take note of for future games).
2 units Eintracht Frankfurt -1 ball 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units Freiburg -0.25 ball 2.39 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units Freiburg- Stuttgart "over" 3.5 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ligue 1 : AS Monaco- Olympique Marseille
I updated the Ligue 1 stats 17 days ago ,through 17 rounds and at the time wrote ...........
Marseille 98-109 30-25
Monaco 161-96 44-31
First column shows ITB attempts created- allowed, second column in blue type is for BC's created-given up.
Top 6 for net ITB:
Lyon +93
PSG +85
Monaco +65
Rennes +62
Lille +29
Lens +20
Angers (+13) and St Etienne (+1) are the only other teams on positive numbers ! Marseille are -11 which is not a top 5 number.
Top 6 for net BC's:
Lyon +39
PSG +31
Lens +19
Lille +18
Monaco +13
Rennes +6
Top 10 for xP:
Lyon 39 pts
PSG 35
Lille 31
Rennes 29
Lens 29
Monaco 28
Metz 24
St Etienne 24
Lorient 23
Marseille 22
At the time Marseille were 5th one place ahead of Monaco but now trail them by 4 points. OM did not feature inside the top 5-6 in any statistical category and their ITB numbers were awful. They have subsequently played poorly and their last three starts comprise of a 0-0 draw with 19th placed Dijon and home defeats to Nimes (1-2) and Lens (0-1), the former were bottom of the table and had been posting the worst numbers through recent games that we have seen in Ligue 1 for several years and had lost 8 straight games, six without scoring, it doesn't make great reading. ASM have played three games subsequently, won each, scoring 11 goals total and were a net +10 BC's.
Monaco are a net +90 ITb and +17 for BC's over OM and the visitors did not create a single attempt from inside the box in 96 minutes of play against Lens in midweek and that is very difficult for any team to manage ! That also gives ASM an extra five days to rest, recover and prepare ,they have won 6/8 h2h games as host and scored 40 goals in the last 16 home and away meetings (2.5 pg) and I expect all trends to continue.
1.75 units AS Monaco -1 ball 2.58 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ligue 2:
Clermont- Auxerre
This should be fun ! Third against fourth with both teams on long unbeaten runs and in their best form for years. I have made no secret of my admiration of Clermont and what they achieve year after year to stay competitive in this league with a relatively low budget and in an area where football is not the main sport. They have the best defensive record in Ligue 2 with just 10 goals conceded, but face the best offensive unit (it is not close) in Auxerre who are averaging over 2 goals per game.
We have a mountain of notes on them but I will go back to early and last season for some background notes and to try to highlight the quality and goal threat they have ...........
Auxerre have a big budget by Ligue 2 standards, a talented squad and they are a name team, but so many false dawns in recent campaigns, but maybe, finally, after so long in the second tier wilderness they can finally put in a promotion push. They need to find some consistency and to break the LWLWLWLW sequence, but wins have become increasingly emphatic and they have scored three goals more than any other team aside from league leaders Paris FC. I don't think they will be too disappointed by their start as they have avoided falling out of the blocks which had started to become a very nasty habit and which I spoke of early last season..........
These are two name teams but Sochaux have spent five years in the second tier finishing 10-15-12-10-16 and Auxerre seven (9-16-9-8-17-11-15) and it is hard to put your finger on quite why, across 12 campaigns, that neither has been able to mount a real promotion push. That is especially true of Auxerre who always have a big (20m +) budget in a league where some teams operate on a third of that. An almost annual slow start has been the catalyst for them playing catch up each season and they won just 2/10 to start 18-19, 1/7 in 17-18, 1/10 in 16-17 and 1/6 in 15-16.
They have had a decent enough window, but the signing of head coach Jean-Marc Furlan was a massive statement of intent, long term readers will know that he is a coach I have great respect for, he averaged 1.72 points across 122 games with Brest, took them up last season and then stepped down, that was his 4th promotion from L2 (three with Troyes) and he has usually managed it playing attractive football. If anyone can turn Auxerre around it is him, early signs are good and this is a massive game for the club, win this and they are really up and running.
They passed some teams to death at times and Sochaux boss Omar Daf famously spoke about them being a "formidable team, full of quality with technical mastery" and it is about time this project all came together. They have a quartet of hugely experienced players with massive offensive threat in Remy Dugimont, Mickael Le Bihan , Kevin Fortune and Matthias Autret, who have 154 goals and 77 assists in L2 between them ! Le Bihan is currently top scorer in L2 and don't say you weren't warned as I wrote last season shortly after he signed ........... I like Auxerre as team and the signing last week of Mickael Le Bihan from Nice, who had a goal and assist on his debut feels like a game changer, he was top scorer in this league in 2014-15 and I lost count of the number of times I mentioned him as the big player at Le Havre and he will score a LOT of goals in this team, he is way too good for the second tier IMO. He is super hungry after a long time out injured (17 months in one go) and little game time, but looks fit again and desperate to make up for lost time.
He scored a hat-trick last week, Dugimont added a 4th in a 4-0 win and with so much experience on the pitch and sidelines, all with promotion expertise, surely the consistency will follow.
Dugimont, Autret and Le Bihan have 28 goals between them, which is only two less than the entire Clermont team and more than 16 Ligue 2 clubs.
MLB is top scorer in L2 with 14 and will be hungry to go again after missing out with suspension last week, when Auxerre scored four and doubtless he feels like he lost out on adding to his tally. Auxerre have , as always, named a very offensive looking squad for today with what I would call six forwards and you almost never see those kinds of options in Ligue 2. Odds swing it and we are rarely going to get these quotes about Auxerre, so it feels like we have to try and take advantage and have no real choice but to go with .................
2 units Auxerre level ball 3.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Châteauroux- Valenciennes
I will have to start with my normal words about Valenciennes and that is that they are unpredictable and not the easiest team to catch right , but they have won their last two (league and cup) without conceding and with two games in hand, still have a chance to get involved in the race for top 5, but need to win today to be a contender. They look quite a slick unit when things click, but as I said, you are never fully sure when that will be, but today is as easy as it gets and VAFC are seemingly happier on the road where they have picked up as many points as at home, whilst scoring more.
Châteauroux look booked for a return to National, they are six points from safety, numbers are poor and they are winless in nine (0-2-7) with a 5-18 goal difference through that sequence. I opposed them in their last home league start when they played Guingamp who were also struggling for results, the visitors won 3-2 but it was not as close as that sounds and until late it looked like it might easily be heading for 0-5 !
It is hard to catch a break when things are going against you and Châteauroux are also struggling with COVID issues and have named a very top heavy squad for today, by which I mean heavy with forwards and lacking options elsewhere and any bench options will mean players out of position. This has been forced on them and not the attacking options that Auxerre , for example always go for, if you attempted to name a team with surplus offensive players, Châteauroux would be somewhere near the bottom of that list !
2 units Valenciennes -0.5 ball 2.52 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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