US Open Tennis Round 2 games: WTA
Sep 02, 2021
I previewed five Round 2 games for subscribers and you can see all of them below, two are still "active".
US Open Tennis: WTA
Sloane Stephens- Cori Gauff
Sloane Stephens was meant to take the mantle from Serena, but has never fully stepped up despite that US Open win in 2017 and final in Roland Garros a year later, which she should also have won. Sloane was blessed with huge talent, born with a natural athletic ability which is a rare combination , but has some major flaws in that she can go walkabout for months on end, her ranking was #957 a month before that US Open win for example and she can even seem disinterested at times. When it clicks, which is not solely, but usually on US hard courts, she can be unplayable and capable of playing shots other players would not even consider making in their dreams, but those days are increasingly rare. However, they are as likely to appear here in New york where she won 11 straight games (2017-18) than anywhere else and she might be motivated by a first ever match with Cori Gauff who is the next big US hope to step into Serena's shoes, or maybe now it is Naomi Osaka's !
Cori is only 17 yo, but is on the verge of top 20 and is 24-6 in the last 12 months against opponents ranked 51+. She is clearly going to the very top of the game, but is still learning and she should be favoured to win today, but it always comes down to odds and her's feel too short. Gauff has been taken to three sets in her last two matches , including by Magda Linette here in R1. Sloane's last five matches have all gone the distance (30.0 game average) and clear signs that she is at least battling, which can sometimes not look the case and she will take confidence from a R1 win over her best friend, Madison Keys two days ago.
0.75 units Sloane Stephens to beat Cori Gauff @ 3.10 Pinnacle.
1.5 units match to go "over" 2.5 sets 2.40-2.55 general quote. Gauff 2-1 @4.2 and Stephens 2-1 @ 6.5 will get you there too !
Marketa Vondrousova- Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina (pictured) ended 2018 ranked #10 and at just 21 years of age she had the world at her feet, but she then suffered a bit of a nightmare 26-27 months, not helped by COVID , her ranking dropped to #75 and she looked headed out of the top 100 and it was all hard to explain and even tougher to accept. However, she then won two hard court events in three starts in February/March, made a grass court final at Birmingham in midsummer and another on hard courts last month and is now closing back in on a top 20 place . The very likeable Daria has worked incredibly hard with her current coach to get back to this position, but putting in the tough hours is easier when things are working well and I can see no let up from either ,when their stated aim is top 10 which I wrote about during the grass court season ......
Like many others I thought that Daria Kasatkina was going to be a huge star, she had a great game, especially for clay and a winning personality and then everything just stalled and if someone had said to me in 2018 that it would be three years before she won another event, I would have helped the medics put the straightjacket on them ! She fell on very hard times, but she has won two hard court events in 2021 and made the final in Birmingham last week where she took Ons Jabeur close and looks on the way back. I hope so, she is still a very young woman and has been working hard with Carlos Martinez for a year, apparently they put in some fierce practice during lockdown and the off season and he said from the word go that a top ten return was the aim and that he wanted to make Daria more aggressive (which was an issue previously).
Vondrousova is talented, but seems to need a lot to go her way and Kasatkina likes playing lefties, being 12-5 against them on hard courts and within that is 6-3 v top 50 players, 4-2 v top 20.
1.75 units Daria Kasatkina to beat Marketa Vondrousova @2.10 Pinnacle.
Elena Rybakina- Caroline Garcia
Carloine Garcia's fall from grace has been even more stark than that of Daria Kasatkina , ranked #4 in late 2018, she was mid 70's after Wimbledon this year. The Frenchwoman has managed to claw her way back up to 61 but it has been hard work and with points to defend this week, she needs to win a couple more matches to break back into the top 50. However, that is going to be a very tall order and I spoke about Elena Rybakina's abilities during the grass court season and also her willingness to fight on whatever the situation and she is clearly made of the "right stuff" ...........
I previewed Sevastova- Rybakina at Eastbourne last week ................
Sevastova is 31 yo and now ranked 61 in the world , she is a decent enough 25-17 career wise on grass, but is 0-4 within that versus top 20 opponents, which is pretty much what Rybakina is. Sevastova is always happiest on hard courts and only played Eastbourne once before this year, she had to pre qualify and only made it into the main draw as a "lucky loser", her last three matches here have all gone to three sets (one of which she lost) and she must be a little tired with no breaks between those long match ups, it feels like time for her to depart.
Rybakina went deep at Roland Garros where she kindly lost 9-7 in the third set of her quarter final with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova ,when my notes included ...........
Elena Rybakina is about to turn 22 years of age (next week) and has never gone beyond R3 of a slam before this week, she was certainly not nervous on Sunday and put Serena to the sword in two sets, but Williams the younger left her first serve in her Paris apartment and I suspect Rybakina will be made to work much harder today . She also sets up as that "big target", with a huge forehand that AP likes ( see above) at 1.84m tall.
We have a big unknown factor and that is that these two play doubles together and will be playing their last 8 game tomorrow, that means that despite never having met in singles, they will know each others game as well as any other opponent on tour, it gives it an odd dynamic, but for my money that has to favour the older , more seasoned pro and I expect the wily Pavlyuchenkova to at long last make the final four and to do it here in Paris 10 years almost to the day since she first should have made the semis.
Good doubles players usually have the attributes for grass and Rybakina is 10-3 on the surface and would have played more had it not been for COVID, her only main draw losses were to Muguruza and Bertens ,when the dutchwoman was in that career high moment and got to #4 in the world. The switch from clay to grass is always the most difficult change in surface on tour and extra difficult when you go deep in Paris, but Rybakina is now 5 matches into her grass court campaign and beat Elina Svitolina pretty easily yesterday, serving particularly well, including 7 aces against the player who always features highly in "best returner" rankings. Rybakina is ranked #21 and can take advantage of Sevastova's weak second serve with her very flat groundstrokes, especially if the Latvian is feeling the effects of some very long matches.
As discussed yesterday, she took an age to get going, but was always the better player and would have taken Ostapenko close in the semi finals , had she not suffered a minor injury . Those form lines are good and I like the fact (not so much at the time) that she carried on against JO, it is all too easy for some players to retire. This is her 9th match of the season on grass and her second versus Shelby Rogers , the two met in Berlin and after another slow start Rybakina won in three sets.
Rybakina is only just 22 yo, is now ranked top 20 and went deep at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon and might easily have gone a round or even two further in each. She is 22-7 versus players ranked 51+ in the last 12 months (8-0 in slams, with 7 wins in straight sets and for the loss of just an average 4.9 games) and a career 14-2 against French players which includes a very long three set win over Gracia in 2018. However, at the time, Rybakina was a teenager and ranked #450 in the world, Garcia was #7 and playing on a surface which should have suited her better. They have gone in totally different directions subsequently.
1.75 units Elena Rybakina -5 games 2.06 Pinnacle.
Karolina Pliskova- Amanda Anisimova
Regular readers know that I think Amanda Anisimova is a big talent, but she has had a tough year, that might change now that she has turned 20 (which happened on Tuesday) but until it does, we have to avoid her and on days like today, take her on. Things can quickly turn in sport and that goes double on the WTA tour, so I will be waiting for AA to get a win or two under her belt, but for now it has to be resurgent Karolina Pliskova in two sets. Anisimova is 3-13 for the year versus top 50 opponents, 0-6 against top 20 (KP is top 10) and 1-6 in her career against the tallest players on tour (those 1.83m+), with all six losses coming in straight sets, including three to Pliskova, one in Montreal last month (6-1, 7-6). KP's second serve was not great that day, as it wasn't in one of her other straight set h2h wins and if AA cannot take a set even when the chances are there , it is hard to see it happening when the big serving Czech is at the top of her game. Notes on Pliskova's Wimbledon final with Ash Barty, which she lost in three sets are reproduced at the foot of this email. KP in 2 .
1.75 units Karolina Pliskova 2-0 sets 2.02 Pinnacle.
Anett Kontaveit- Jil Teichmann
Anett Kontaveit has twice made R4 in the US Open and ran into Venus the first time and Naomi (last year, so has points to defend) , she is not meeting anyone of that calibre today, but Jil Teichmann is in the form of her life having reached the final last week in Cincinnati , beating, wait for it .................Osaka, Bencic and Pliskova ! Those results were so good for the diminutive Swiss leftie, that they are almost hard to accept, she has never won a hard court event and is 2-8 lifetime in slams with only her second win coming in R1 this week against #161 Cristina Bucsa (the other against current #275 Dalila Jakupovic) , or in other words and not meaning to be unkind, no one much ! Sometimes the stars align, everything falls into place and for a week it did for Teichmann in Cincy. However, she is 9-18 versus players ranked 21-50 like Kontaveit ,who also found some form in build up, winning Cleveland , it was not a high profile event, but all wins were against top 100 ranked opponents (#43-#97) and the Swiss player fits nicely into that group ranking wise. Teichmann lost here in New York in R1 in 2018 to Kaia Kanepi in two sets and Kontaveit will doubtless have asked her countrywoman about that game. AK is also a fine 11-4 on hardcourts versus lefties ranked 21+.
1.75 units Anett Kontaveit -2.5 games 1.97 Pinnacle.
Good luck !
The Czech player turned a nice profit on the day for us by landing similar odds and overcoming the loss of the first set to Aryna Sabalenka, to win 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 ..............
Aryna Sabalenka blew Ons Jabeur off court on Tuesday in an impressive performance and her first serve was massive, actually so was her second (!) as fast as the Tunisians first serve. But I would give a word of caution, in that it felt like Jabeur was a no show and also was not really enjoying herself as usual and I expect Pliskova to put up more opposition today. This is Sabalenka's first slam semi final and she had not even made a quarter final before this week despite her high ranking and possibly now, having had two days to think about this, it is her turn to feel the nerves.
On Monday I wrote ..........Pliskova has fallen out of the top ten for the first time since August 2016 and she has struggled in the last year against any top 100 opponent on fast surfaces , upon which we should expect her to thrive and to be honest, we have never seen the best of her at the business end of Wimbledon. Pliskova was one of those players, Kerber was another, who never enjoyed the #1 ranking and who knows, might do better here now that she is out of the top 10 and to some degree the pressure is off.
Pliskova is in her 4th slam SF, so has an edge in experience there, but has never really turned up at Wimbledon and made her first quarter and semi final too this week. She has not beaten much at these championships, but has yet to drop a set and has lost an average of just 2.8 games in each, being broken just 3 times, to give that some context, big serving Sabalenka has had her serve broken 11 times. Sabalenka's serve is a massive weapon and fastest of the two, but not by much and I am not sure it is a better serve than Pliskova , it is small margins which will decide this and despite Aryna being the better mover, I see a lot of points decided by first shots, first or especially second serve , or return of serve.
The two have met twice before, both went the distance and were super close, one was on grass at Eastbourne and they won 100 points each that day, this could play out similarly ......
I might be biased, but felt that Pliskova was quite a comfortable winner, she could easily have won the opening set and once she went a break up early in the second it appeared only to be going one way. KP served really well and her second serve was decisive and she allowed Sabalenka just one break point, creating 10 herself.
Barty leads the h2h 5-2, but the only recent meeting was on clay this year and went the distance, there were two grass court meetings which they split, but they were a very long time ago, so not too much to be gleaned from those seven matches beyond the fact that all were lengthy, averaging just shy of 27 games.
Pliskova has been working with coach Sascha Bajin for about eight months and I really like that she spoke out a couple of months ago to say that her poor form at the time had nothing to do with the German, or the work they were doing together, which she believed in and the results are there for all to see this last fortnight. Bajin is used to working with winners, Serena, Wozniaki and Osaka and he was instrumental in helping Naomi Osaka become a champion and after they parted company, I did say that I felt it was a mistake. He improved Osaka in many ways and not all directly tennis related and I wrote the following in early 2018........
The still only 20 yo was imperious in winning Indian Wells, then beat her idol Serena in Miami and we have not seen much of her since and that is a good thing IMO. She went home (Fort Lauderdale), then to Japan to play Fed Cup tennis and hang out and, one of her team, coach Sascha Bajin (
In Round 1 I noticed that the team around Osaka had grown and is pretty big now, that can be a bad thing, for the youngster and she is a very young 20yo, I think it is what is needed and they have clearly all been working hard. Just by looking at her, you can see that she is MUCH fitter and her movement around the court greatly improved, her serve has always been huge and she is getting even more out of it now and her average was around 190km (200 would get you into top 20 fastest of all time !) and to be honest she was not really trying for pure speed, her second serve looked improved and everything looked like it had been retweaked and upgraded and, since Indian Wells. Then I saw a couple of things on social media, Naomi working out a lot, including skipping and doing rope work right on arrival at reception at Foro Italico more than a week ago, when others were signing in/on phones etc and she didn't want to waste a moment and when things click for someone as talented as Osaka and then she ups her work load and gets benefits from it, then everyone needs to take note.
Within nine months she had won her first two slams !
Bajin doesn't have such a clean canvas with Pliskova who, at age 29 is a decade older than Osaka when he started working with her, but I can see improvement in similar areas (second serve) , playing to her strengths and looking for any kind of improvement in weak areas, this is a bit like the wildly successful GB Cycling mantra of trying to improve everything, however small or relatively unimportant it might seem, by 1%.Bajin was bought in not to make Pliskova top 5 again per se, but to help her win a slam and now they are just two sets away from that target.
Barty is favourite,which is fine and I have no arguments with that, but there is a world of difference between 1.80 and 1.30 and, for my money, Pliskova's chance is greater than 33% and that is all we/I need to know.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport: