This is meant to be a "homecoming",  a chance for teams to take their bow in front of their own fans and the watching nation and then beat up on some poor sap opponent ! Teams have been less willing to play the role of whipping boy in recent years and some, like the Chiefs themselves have taken the opportunity for some payback and to lay down a  marker for the future.

 

The Chiefs won by 14 points, covering the 10 point handicap very comfortably and they actually led by 24 points early in the 4th quarter and could then ease off.

 

When the defending champions has hosted the now traditional "kickoff game" they are 14-2, with 5 wins coming by double digit margins, six by under a touchdown and three by between 7-9 points, that suggests that Tampa Bay are being asked to give up a tough handicap at 9 points, which would only have been covered 5/16 times, with one "push".

 

My notes on the Bucs Super Bowl win over the Chiefs are reproduced at the foot of this email. They made a nonsense of those odds, winning 31-9.

 

Tom Brady remains and is after another Super Bowl ring, I am a creature of habit and this is almost always where I say , where did it all go wrong for him ?   An all time great who can still play the sport he loves as well as (almost) ever in his mid 40's, 1.93m tall, good looking , said to be worth $250+m and married to supermodel Gisele Bundchen who has a net worth far more than him......it's a tough old life !

 

 

 

Dallas had a nightmare 6-10 injury hit 2020 and to be honest, head coach Mike McCarthy, probably saved his job by winning three of the last four games, but probably deserved to keep it as he was hired by the Cowboys after a reported 12 hour interview with owner Jerry Jones, something which I would not wish on my worst enemy ! There were excuses, key players were absent, they lost a trio of veterans who retired /moved on and who had been on the roster for years and years, add in COVID and there are lots of reasons why they struggled, but it is harder to reason why they were SO poor, especially defensively, giving up miles of yards and 29.56 points per game.

 

McCarthy can have no excuses this time round, he has effectively had 11 months to plan for this day, with the Cowboys season over early in 2020 with the injury to QB Dak Prescott, he is back, along with a new and lengthy contract extension and he was putting up some good numbers prior to that injury and offensively, Dallas look strong. Prescott has RB Ezekiel Elliott and three star/superstar receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Michale Gallup  and Amari Cooper, all five in tandem gives them huge options. The defense needed addressing and it has been, linebacker Micah Parsons was drafted at #10 overall, CB Kelvin Joseph was taken in the second round and safety Keanu Neal was signed in free agency along with DE Tarell Basham, these were the standouts, there were other additions too, but perhaps the biggest was the arrival of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn (pictured), who spent the last five years as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, he had a marginal winning record there and should have won the 2016 Super Bowl, leading 28-3 in the third quarter and he must still wake up in a cold sweat dreaming of that game ! It is easy to forget, given how his last couple of seasons in Atlanta played out, what a defensive mastermind this guy is. Quinn led the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl win his first ever season as DO, leading the league in fewest points and yards allowed and takeaways, the only team since the 1985 Bears, widely considered the greatest defensive unit of all time, to do the "treble". On the back of that he got the top job at the Falcons and was minutes away from another Super Bowl win.

 

Quinn will be hungry now to restore his reputation and feels like a great addition and to be honest, the only way is up for Dallas defensively. There are a lot of question marks about how fit/rusty Dak Prescott might be, but reports from training camp suggest he has been sensational in practice and also that Dallas cannot believe just how good Micah Parsons is, with the rookie exceeding all expectations. I like Dallas and the points and will opt for ............

 

 

 

 

Good luck !

 

They then won in New Orleans, who, like Washington, are an elite (top 5) passing defense and the Saints had also handed two heavy regular season beatings to the Bucs and Tampa are clearly improving, especially defensively, more of which later. Turning the series  against the Saints around should give the Bucs confidence that they can do so against the Chiefs, especially as they won the final quarter 14-0 in Week 12 and were close to another stop late in the game. Also, Tampa were in their worst form of the season for that first meeting, they were having an awful November, struggled past the Giants and three of their five losses came that month and it was all prior to what was a very late bye week for them. Their break came in Week 13, only the Panthers also had their own week off after Week 11 and they lost 6 of 7 games in build up to it, it is too late and should be changed. After that chance to regroup, the Bucs have gone 7-0 and put up 30+ points in each of the last six, they restricted the #1 and #4 scoring teams in the NFL to an average 23 points on the road in the postseason, when conditions heavily favoured both opponents.

 

The Bucs defense bailed them out in the Championship game in Green Bay, a contest they were absolutely coasting until Tom Brady, who had looked imperious up to that point,  went "walkabout", throwing three interceptions in as many drives, one on the Packers 32 yard line and another on their 28, so great scoring opportunities for Tampa. It was most un-Brady like if we are talking over his career, you do not win everything in sight by turning the ball over too often in big games, especially  in scoring situations, but it has happened increasingly regularly and I guess it goes with the territory of throwing deeper and he seems increasingly willing to throw into double/treble coverage.

 

Brady has thrown 2 or more interceptions in 20 regular season games, roughly once per year, but has done so four times this season , add in last week and it is an issue ! He has definitely been throwing the ball high at times, but he usually bounces back from adversity and it is easy to focus on that and skip how well he played in the first half in the Championship game. Three of the games in which he threw 2+ interceptions this season came during that tough November schedule and I think tiredness might have played a part, he is 43 yo for goodness sake and as fit as he is, it is a game where not many play even into their 30's and maybe we are talking mentally, as opposed to physically, in any case. In Green Bay they were playing for the third playoff week in a row, all on the road, which is super tough and demanding and not what Brady is used to, the Pats were almost always a high seed with bye weeks and home games and this was very different. Two weeks off and back on home ground and sleeping in his own bed should see him right and I am expecting a largely error free day on Sunday.

 

The Bucs outstanding defense ranked #6 for the regular season (#1 versus the run) has stepped up a couple of levels in the postseason and was exceptional facing two free scoring elite offenses and especially on clutch plays, they bailed out Brady in the Championship game and gave him time to just steady himself and get back on track. You cannot run against the Bucs and the Chiefs were unable to do so in Week 12 and it will make KC largely one dimensional and as good as they are at that passing game, that is never a good thing in the NFL where you need a balanced game plan and additionally, the Bucs are the one team in the NFL with the armoury to win a shootout with Mahomes and co.

 

KC are looking to become the first team to repeat since 2004 and really rode their luck at times last season, they trailed by at least 10 points in all three playoff games..... 0-24 (!) to the Texans, 7-17 to the Titans, 10-20 to the Niners in the Super Bowl at the end of the third quarter and they were also 0-9 against the Bills in the Championship game two weeks ago. The Chiefs, with Mahomes at the helm have trailed by at least 9 points in 5/6 post season games, the first of which was versus the Patriots and Brady in 2018 (0-14 half time) and if we consider the TB interceptions a problem, this is no less an issue and I am not sure they can afford to do so against such a strong defensive unit as the Bucs.

 

I keep thinking about that earlier meeting, nothing went right for the Bucs, they were weary, Brady threw two picks, they could not get star receiver Mike Evans into that game until late, gave up a sackful of yards and possession but still they got it close , might even have won. They look a better team now, more in sync and on both sides of the ball and will have enjoyed the two week break.

The Chiefs offensive line has played well enough but been cobbled together, they lost two starters to COVID with the players opting out of the campaign, then Kelechi Osemele and Mitchell Schwartz suffered season ending injuries . Finally, left tackle Eric Fisher,  who protects the blindside for Mahomes, was injured in the AFC Championship game and is out of the Super Bowl , with only center Austin Reiter remaining from Week 1. In that previous h2h meeting which I keep coming back to, the Bucs got 16 quarterback pressures and Mahomes was forced into releasing the ball quickly which he is as good as any at doing, but the loss of Fisher hardly helps and actually feels like a potential game changer. Last season the Chiefs were 11-0 when Fisher played, 4-4 in his absence and 2-4 within that versus winning teams. When Mahomes is pressured he has a passer rating of just 78.7, a 40 point drop off from his career rating of 108.7.