Tuesday January 21st
Next newsletter is @ 10.00 UK time tomorrow.
Eugenie Bouchard (see below) won her quarter final with Ana Ivanovic in three sets, which landed both of our selections in the match and at very decent odds. Li Na won the other quarter and she now meets the young Canadian for a place in the final, there is a 12 year age difference between the two BTW, hopefully experience will win out ! Our two outright selections are now in the last six and we can actually win with both bets, but let's get them both in the final before we start worrying about that !
Li Na:"The racquet is my friend. She is with me on the court all the time, so I have to be friends with her and then she can be good to me."
I am in a tennis frame of mind, so let's start with a very quick look at today's remaining quarters at the Australian Open.....
I have a lot of time for Agnieszka Radwanska and she has been good to GOWI over the years, but if Victoria Azarenka had to pick one fellow top five player to face for her life, it would be the Polish superstar. Azaranka leads the h2h 13-3, including an amazing 11 of the last 12, with the last five of those all beng in straight sets, with Agie only taking four games in two of ten sets. The Belarusian has dominated the series and to simplify things a little, matches up perfectly against Radwanska, who needs her opponent to have a very off day to win and even then, it will be tough !
Radwanska can perhaps take heart and inspiration from their only previous meeting here, which was at exactly the same stage in 2012, she took the first set on a tie break, but it was the same old story after that with Azarenka winning the next two for the loss of only two games. I think that was the match which broke Agies heart, at least in terms of playing the world #2 and Vika has not only won the 12 sets since, but a whopping 73.47% of all games played (72-26) between the two.
Radwanska is a very intellegent player and she is know as the "The Brain", problem is, it goes missing when she plays Azarenka and even all the simple things that she does so well, desert her and unforced errors which she usually keeps to a minimum, start to flow. In very approx terms, about 20% more WTA points are decided by unforced errors than on the ATP tour, the number was 44.4% of all points at the Australian Open last year and it is clearly a key stat, which we often refer to and will do so again this week.
Anyway, I feel similar to this as I did the Li Na game yesterday, I favour Azarenka strongly and think she is very likely to win again in straight sets, but feel the odds are correct/offer no value, so I will have to pass, the handicap line similarly, looks about right.
Should something "odd" happen and Radwanska take the first set, I would then be happy to side with Vika to come from behind and win in a repeat of two years ago, but I really don't want to put myself through that and hope she wins comfortably.
Capital One Cup: West Ham United-Manchester City
This is over as a contest, with City holding a 6-0 advantage from the first leg, but I expect the Hammers to be stronger than for some time, to look to restore a little pride and with no fixture this coming weekend, to name their strongest possible line up and try and give their long suffering supporters something to cheer about. Fat Sam said ..."We know it's highly, highly unlikely that we we're going to get through but you're playing at home, you're playing for pride, you're playing to try and get a result and your team's trying to play well. I have a couple of players back from suspension, which is important to me. They'll have a top competitive game after being suspended, Kevin Nolan and James Tomkins, which eases the problems that we've had recently.
"Andy Carroll will get another game, at some stage he'll get more minutes than he's had in the last game, which is obviously another important factor for us. Hopefully we can give Manchester City a really tough game Tuesday night and try to get something out of it."
He went to say, he will not field any inexperienced players and I think these odds are very attractive, with the Hammers playing a little better than results suggest.
City do have an FA Cup tie at the weekend, albeit one they can win at half pace, but the Tottenham match next midweek will be on their minds and they are fighting to win four competitions and this one is already decided, so a very low key approach from them. It should be the B version of the B team, with one or two bigger names on the bench, I see absolutely no justification for these quotes. 1.5 units West Ham United + 1.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Ibramarket and personally, but not officially, I will also take a little on the home win at circa 7.50 + which IMO are crazy odds.
The rest of today's newsletter including another tennis and two further football previews is only available to clubgowi subscribers.
Good Luck.
Written Monday 20/01
Australian Open Tennis: We are down to eight in the Women's Singles and in draw order we have....
Ana-Ivanovic-Eugenie Bouchard
Li Na-Flavia Pennetta
Simona Halep-Dominika Cibulkova
Victoria Azarenka-Garbine Muguruza/Agnieszka Radwanska (these two are due to play shortly)
Flavia Pennetta did us a favour in Round 4 (see below) and actually holds a lifetime 2-1 edge over the Chinese superstar, all meetings came on hardcourts and incredibly all in Australia. However, before you rush off to back the Italian at 4.33-4.50, I should point out that two of those were 8 years ago and the last back in 2010, before Li Na's big breakthrough. Also, all those h2h matches came in very low key events and will have no bearing on today. Li Na blew a very strong opponent away in Ekaterina Makarova in R4 for the loss of just two games and despite the heat, had upped the level of practice the day before after a disappointing showing in Round 3. It clearly paid off and to up her prep work, when others are scaling back in week 2, due to fatigue and the weather, is a clear sign that she feels in very good shape.
Pennetta meets a far more aggressive player today and one she matches up far less well with, despite that h2h record and I understand the Italian's wrist injury, which she had surgery on in 2012 has been giving her a little trouble. She got nervous late in the game against Kerber and with this, the second biggest match of her single career, she might not have slept well ahead of this and could be very jittery. I favour Li Na -4.5 games or in straight sets, but odds for both are sub 1.90 and that is a shade too skinny for me, so happy to sit this one out and hope she progresses.
It is the Bouchard-Ivanovic match where I feel there is some value. I touched upon the 19 yo Canadian who has limitless potential in that outright preview ...Bouchard (two time Junior semi finalist here) and she seems big to upset the "upsetter". Ivanovic saw off Serena Williams and now all the media attention and pressure has switched and is on her. The two have met once previously, at Wimbledon last summer with the youngster winning 3&3 and 81% of points on first serve.
Ivanovic took her chances in the upset win, but Serena hit a huge number (for her) of unforced errors and I do not think her (Ana's) form is quite what her 9-0 record for the year suggests. She did not beat a lot in winning in Auckland and her four matches in 2014 against what I would consider stronger opponents, have all gone to at least 25 games. I doubt she can serve for a third match running at the level she did against Williams or Stosur (consistency is not her strong point) and Bouchard who has the confidence of youth, can take advantage of any dips. I will take 0.5 units Eugenie Bouchard to win 3.25 + there is 3.49 with Pinnacle Sports and I unit this to go to three sets best odds are circa 4.0-4.22 and biggest with Pinnacle Sports for Ivanovic to win 2-1 and 6.0-7.04 for Bouchard to do likewise....which gives you a range of 2.40 to 2.63 which looks good value. You have to split stakes across the two set bets, circa 0.6 and 0.4 units respectively, but I am sure you can do the maths.
