MLS betting preview .............
May 04, 2022
MLS : FC Cincinnati - Toronto FC
Not too much on these two clubs this season, but both did get an early season mention when Toronto hosted NYRB early in the campaign ............
Toronto FC had a nightmare 2021, with just six wins and only basement FC Cincinnati conceding more goals. they opened with a 1-1 draw at FC Dallas which is usually a good result, but the hosts have issues and still allowed TFC only one attempt on target, whilst creating 5 BC's of their own. They have a new and famous head coach in Bob Bradley and made a huge signing, paying a fortune in salary for Lorenzo Insigne from Napoli, but he doesn't join until July and the hosts are very much in transition at the moment.
We were firmly in the Red Bulls camp and they won 4-1 and TFC took just a single point from their opening three games, but picked up after that with 10 points from the next four, before losing their last two, 5-4 away to NYCFC (who scored 9 without reply in their two home games either side, so no shame in that) and then losing 2-1 at home to FC Cincinnati, tonight's opponent, at the weekend. Making this a very quick turnaround between two teams who will know each other very well by the final whistle.
FCC have had three seasons in MLS and finished bottom of the Eastern Conference each time, conceding 2.02 goals per game from exactly 100 starts, their home record of 7-12-30 is terrible and the move to their new home stadium TQL in May last season hasn't helped much at all (3-5-14) although it has to be said that one of those wins was over TFC (2-0) and they have won 3/4 h2h meetings, scoring at least twice in each. They should have scored 3-4 at the weekend, they might have been two up before they scored both sides of the break to lead 2-0 and late in the game were through on goal with a 2 on 1 and messed up. There was quite a lot to like about that performance Brenner and Acosta looked lively up top and early last season I spoke about the ambition shown in bringing those two into the club ......
21 yo Brenner Souza da Silva joined from Serie A side Sao Paulo where he scored 24 goals in 56 appearances and he was on some Premier League watch lists for a while, it seems an odd move, but FCC paid the third-highest transfer fee in MLS history and he scored last week on his debut. Former DC United playmaker Luciano Acosta has returned to MLS from Liga MX side Atlas, his MLS record of a 53 goals contribution ( 25 goals, 28 assists) in 127 apps is very good and he also scored on his debut last week. Acosts is still just 26 yo, he had an almost god like 2018 alongside Wayne Rooney and if he can bond as well with Brenner, things could get very interesting in Cincy where supporters are very passionate .
Brenner scored 8 goals last season, which was decent, but perhaps not quite what they hoped for and he has a fitness delayed start to 2022 (vias issues meant he missed pre season), but has started the last three games, Acosta has 10 goals and 9 assists since his arrival and always seems to perform whenever I watch, so they have the core of a real offensive threat and young striker Brandon Vazquez has five goals this season and will give Brenner competition. They have yet another new GM and head coach and hopefully this pair will be given time to get things right, the new h/c Pat Noonan spent three successful years as assistant under Jim Curtin at Philadelphia Union and will be looking to bring some of the Philly magic with him. They obviously like the Union blueprint, as new GM Chris Albright also came from Philly.
I think we will see progress from FCC, but that is relative to where they are coming from and they have to start making more of home games , they cannot be trusted to do so right now, but I liked what I saw over the weekend and they match up fairly well with TFC. FCC have played ok in their last three home starts, beating Inter Miami 3-1, losing 4-3 to Montreal (where they were +1.33 for xGD) and 2-1 to LAFC (led at HT) possibly the best team in the league and they averaged 1.8 xGF in those games, scored 7 and "won" BC's 8-6.
Both teams have scored in the last 13 Toronto FC MLS starts and it is easy to see another goal or two for FCC, but no clean sheets in 11 home games for them, conceding 2+ goals in seven and TFC have scored in their last 5 road starts, six in the last two and those opponents RSL (only conceded once in their other three home starts) and NYCFC (9-0 home starts either side) and are MUCH stronger teams than FCC . Interesting game and one we can learn a lot more from and I see FCC as improving, but if there is value this evening, it is probably with TFC to score twice, with Cincy struggling when the onus is on them to make the running and always seeming to shoot themselves in the foot as hosts.
1.75 units Toronto FC "over" 1.5 goals 2.44 asian line.
Good luck !
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