MLS betting preview ..........
May 21, 2022
MLS: FC Cincinnati- New England Revolution
Recently I wrote ...............
FCC have had three seasons in MLS and finished bottom of the Eastern Conference each time, conceding 2.02 goals per game from exactly 100 starts, their home record of 7-12-30 is terrible and the move to their new home stadium TQL in May last season hasn't helped much at all (3-5-14) although it has to be said that one of those wins was over TFC (2-0) and they have won 3/4 h2h meetings, scoring at least twice in each. They should have scored 3-4 at the weekend, they might have been two up before they scored both sides of the break to lead 2-0 and late in the game were through on goal with a 2 on 1 and messed up. There was quite a lot to like about that performance Brenner and Acosta looked lively up top and early last season I spoke about the ambition shown in bringing those two into the club ......
21 yo Brenner Souza da Silva joined from Serie A side Sao Paulo where he scored 24 goals in 56 appearances and he was on some Premier League watch lists for a while, it seems an odd move, but FCC paid the third-highest transfer fee in MLS history and he scored last week on his debut. Former DC United playmaker Luciano Acosta has returned to MLS from Liga MX side Atlas, his MLS record of a 53 goals contribution ( 25 goals, 28 assists) in 127 apps is very good and he also scored on his debut last week. Acosts is still just 26 yo, he had an almost god like 2018 alongside Wayne Rooney and if he can bond as well with Brenner, things could get very interesting in Cincy where supporters are very passionate .
Brenner scored 8 goals last season, which was decent, but perhaps not quite what they hoped for and he has a fitness delayed start to 2022 (vias issues meant he missed pre season), but has started the last three games, Acosta has 10 goals and 9 assists since his arrival and always seems to perform whenever I watch, so they have the core of a real offensive threat and young striker Brandon Vazquez has five goals this season and will give Brenner competition. They have yet another new GM and head coach and hopefully this pair will be given time to get things right, the new h/c Pat Noonan spent three successful years as assistant under Jim Curtin at Philadelphia Union and will be looking to bring some of the Philly magic with him. They obviously like the Union blueprint, as new GM Chris Albright also came from Philly.
I think we will see progress from FCC, but that is relative to where they are coming from and they have to start making more of home games , they cannot be trusted to do so right now, but I liked what I saw over the weekend and they match up fairly well with TFC. FCC have played ok in their last three home starts, beating Inter Miami 3-1, losing 4-3 to Montreal (where they were +1.33 for xGD) and 2-1 to LAFC (led at HT) possibly the best team in the league and they averaged 1.8 xGF in those games, scored 7 and "won" BC's 8-6.
Both teams have scored in the last 13 Toronto FC MLS starts and it is easy to see another goal or two for FCC, but no clean sheets in 11 home games for them, conceding 2+ goals in seven . Interesting game and one we can learn a lot more from and I see FCC as improving.
I didn't have the courage to go with them that day, they won 2-0 and have subsequently won 1-0 at Minnesota United and 2-1 at Chicago Fire and incredibly, sat top of the East going into Wednesday's games, but did not play that night, so have fallen back, but really eye-catching progress from them.
It has to be said that Revolution are probably a step up from what FCC have beaten so far and they won the Eastern Conference by 19 points last season, picking up an average 1.56 points pg more than Cincy which is a mind boggling number. Having said that, FCC are only one point short of what they managed all last season and NER have 12 less than at this stage 12 months ago. Right now the pair look well matched, with a case for FCC on the up (that cannot be disputed) and NER on the downgrade, but we don't yet really know to what extent !
To further complicate matters somewhat, the two met in the US Open Cup in Boston 10 days ago and Revolution won 5-1, but they had been at home for 17 days and Cincy had only just returned from Minnesota and made 10 changes to their starting 11, New England went with 7 starters from their previous game and only one team learned much from that and it wasn't the Revolution !
2 units FC Cincinnati level ball 2.08 asian line.
Good luck !
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