UEFA Champions League final ..........
May 28, 2022
UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid- Liverpool
I wrote the following ahead of Real's semi-final second leg with Manchester City and have highlighted a few lines this morning ........
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I was very pleased with my first leg notes and also with my quarter final second leg preview when Real hosted Chelsea, both featured in last Tuesday's email and looked a lot like this .........
Two weeks ago, ahead of Real's quarter final second leg at home to Chelsea, I spoke a little about how the first game had played out and what we should expect from the contest in Madrid, which was largely, more of the same ..........
The first leg was very enjoyable and we might easily have seen another goal or two. Real were the better team, but defended deep at times and were happy to let Chelsea shoot and they had 20 attempts on goal, 10 from ITB. The Blues were already a little shell shocked from the 4-1 home loss to Brentford a few days earlier and it took them some time to get going. The Blues won 6-0 at Southampton on Saturday, they might not have beaten much, as the Saints were a no show, but the manner and timing of the win were perfect to restore confidence and I suspect that Chelsea will go to Madrid "expecting" to score twice which is the minimum they need, whether that will be enough is another matter, but that is what I think is likely to happen. It is often easier to play when your target is clear and for Chelsea that is at least two goals and a win, for Real it is a little more complex and they risk falling between two stools in deciding whether to play a normal game, or to hold on to that two goal advantage and given how they played and set up at Stamford Bridge, I suspect it will be the latter and we can expect the visitors to see a lot of the ball and plenty of sights at goal.
Chelsea have scored in 14/15 Champions League away starts, averaging 1.8 goals pg and that included a 1-1 draw here at the Bernabeu last season at the semi final stage, that was the first leg, but the Blues dominated the tie (2-0 at home) and across the three h2h games (all in the last 50 weeks) they created 11 BC's (net + 7) and were a net +18 for ITB attempts. Real do not need to win and we can expect a far more Chelsea like performance .
The value is surely with the away win (2.73) or Chelsea to score "over" 1.5 goals @ circa 2.33 and the "bonus" is that either can happen and Real still progress, so the host will be "happy" with either at least all the while they still lead on aggregate.
Chelsea won that 3-1 in 90 minutes to take the tie into extra time, when Real then found the goal to take them into the semi finals, the Blues should probably have scored a 4th in regulation and ultimately felt hard done by . They had another 18 attempts , 11 ITB inside 90 minutes ( 28 and 18 total) , MISSING 4 BC's and were +2.6 xGD across the 210 minutes . Those are huge numbers in the four games with Chelsea, all played in the last 12 months and we have to bear in mind, that as big a Champions League player as the Blues have been, they are a long way behind both City and Liverpool domestically and Real do not face this level of opposition too often and currently, not at all in La Liga.
Real and City met twice in 2020, the two games were six months apart due to COVID, but played out much the same as the four with Chelsea with the Sky Blues averaging 18 attempts, 13 ITB and 4 BC's. They won both 2-1.
It will be a surprise if tonight doesn't play out similarly, those are an enormous number of attempts for Real to give up and look to defend in the knockout stage of the elite club competition , but surely more of the same, with them sitting deep and looking to score on the break. I have spoken of City's defensive prowess having a touch of the Emperor's New Clothes about it many times and it is not quite as it seems and that goes double when opponents do not fear them and they have conceded in 14 of 23 CL home games, but have won 17 of the last 20 and with no recognised right back this evening, they are likely to concede, or for Real to create chances. However, City no longer have to worry about the away goal rule, so 3-1 is as good as 2-0 and at the other end of the pitch, the English champions have a huge array of offensive talent, even if they still need a #9 !
City are also doing battle with Liverpool in the EPL and whilst their personal Holy Grail is the Champions League, they know that a big win this evening will make the league games on either side of the return leg , easier.
To say that Real have ridden their luck to reach this stage is an understatement, they struggled in the group stage, should have lost to Chelsea and were battered for three halves of football by PSG (29-11 attempts, 19-5 ITB, 12-3 on target, 2-0 BC's and 3-11 saves !).
City won 4-3, to be honest, 5-2 would have been a truer reflection of what we witnessed , BC's were 6-2 with Real scoring both of theirs and the Sky Blues missing three. Real head coach Carlo Ancelotti was content to once again sit deep and play on the counter when they could break the City high press and when they did, the English champions backline was vulnerable to pace, especially from Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. However, Kyle Walker is back in training after missing five games and has travelled to Spain and Joao Cancelo is available after missing the first leg with a suspension and despite the fact that City might have scored six in the first leg, it feels like a better matchup for them, at least defensively this evening. CB David Alaba is absent for Real this evening. The hosts do struggle with the press, we saw it against Chelsea (multiple times), PSG and in the first leg and we can expect City to be just as aggressive in this phase tonight and better able to handle Real on the counter with a natural right back. I feel City are on another level to Real, who have had more than their share of CL luck this season and if the visitors can eliminate the individual errors which allowed Real back into the game last week.
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What happened in Madrid is now part of Champions League history, City led 1-0 (2-0 on aggregate) entering the 91st minute, Real scored twice in injury time to take the tie into an extra 30 minutes and progressed. All credit to Real, they do not know when they are beaten and refused to lie down, but they did not create a scoring chance worthy of the name inside 90 minutes in that and should have been beaten by PSG/Chelsea/Man City , they were absolutely battered in 9-10 of the 12 halves of football and it feels like lightning has struck not once, twice , but three times and I just cannot have it happening a fourth !
Real will sit and try to play on the counter and have the pace to do so and the Reds do play a high defensive line, but that is more than countered by Liverpool's pressing , they press higher and harder than any team in Europe IMO and we have already seen Real having big issues in this department. In the end, it all come down to odds and Liverpool are better priced today at a neutral venue than City were in Madrid, for a game they did not need to win ( leading from the first leg), there was not a cigarette paper between the two English teams this season and Liverpool got the better of the last two h2h meetings played recently and that cannot be correct. In fact, regardless of the result tonight, it isn't ! Real have given up an incredible 2.10 xGA in EACH of their six knockout stage games and I expect Liverpool to win and hopefully no let up once ahead as they will be all too aware of the threat the Spanish champions pose late on in games.
2.75 units Liverpool -0.75 ball 2.33 asian line.
Good luck !
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