EPL betting preview...........
Apr 26, 2023
Premier League: West Ham United- Liverpool
What a (last) two weeks or so for West Ham which ended with a 4-0 win at Bournemouth, ahead of which I wrote ............
Bournemouth have won back to back road games to haul themselves up to 14th and a pretty good chance that another three points will secure their safety. Ahead of their win at Spurs last weekend my notes included .............
Tottenham host Bournemouth, who have done incredibly well to haul themselves up to 15th with a three point buffer over the drop zone. They have basically a Championship quality side, with one or two exceptions (maybe just one) , but what they have is fight and togetherness and not all teams at the bottom have that and right now, also some form and self belief and they battered Leicester City 1-0 at the King Power last weekend. They created 2.2 xGF ( felt low on what I witnessed), 19 attempts, 13 ITB, 7 on target with Daniel Iversen in the City goal making six saves and collecting their MOTM plaudits. It was an impressive showing, they might not have beaten much, but what I really liked was the confidence the Cherries showed and they seem likely to have a go today and are expected to create chances. They led Spurs 2-0 at the Vitality Stadium in the reverse fixture, before losing 3-2, they look to have improved subsequently, no, they have improved and something similar is far from unlikely.
West Ham have also had a great two weeks, winning at Fulham, coming from 2-0 down to draw with Arsenal and progressing to a European semi final with a 4-1 demolition of Gent on Thursday. They would also be close to safety with the win, up to 13th and with a game still in hand.
There is much to like about Bournemouth, but they lack the quality of the Hammers and the hosts are still very vulnerable defensively, they have given up 2.3+ xGA in 6/8 starts and an average of 2.06 xGA in their last five at home despite Fulham not showing up. They are better and happier when there is less onus on them to make the running and they are kind of under more pressure today that they were at either Leicester or Spurs. The Irons have finished 6th and 7th in the last two seasons and are in their second straight European semi final and they remain a decent squad, with a touch of class. I feel they would have taken a lot of confidence from what was a joyful win in midweek and favour them to make the short journey home with at least something for their troubles.
You do not score eight goals inside 72 hours without it making confidence levels soar and the four on Sunday were celebrated with no less exultation than those against Gent and the Hammers played some very slick football at times. I am not sure they are a team anyone wants to face right now and West Ham won this fixture 3-2 last season and that was when Liverpool were good! In that game the Irons scored twice from corners and it should have been three as Declan Rice hit the crossbar with a free header from another. They have lost none of that ability as three goals at Bournemouth came from crosses (two from corners) and the players that did a lot of damage in that last h2h game at the London Stadium (especially Fornals and Rice) are in imperious form. Add in that Liverpool still cannot defend a corner, in a 3-1 loss at Lionel Road to the mighty Bees early this year they conceded from four in a row and in a matter of minutes ( two were ruled out by VAR), fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, not sure what four times means, but it isn't good!
Pool have scored 11 goals in their last 230 minutes or so of football, with four from Diego Jota who has finally hauled himself out of the goal scoring doldrums and he and they are perfectly capable of making this a shoot out this evening which feels likely, but with United having the game and fire power to do their share of the damage.
1.75 units "over" 3.5 goals 2.65 asian line.
1.5 units West Ham United "over" 1.5 goals 2.85 asian line.
Good luck!
West Ham United- Liverpool
What a (last) two weeks or so for West Ham which ended with a 4-0 win at Bournemouth, ahead of which I wrote ............
Bournemouth have won back to back road games to haul themselves up to 14th and a pretty good chance that another three points will secure their safety. Ahead of their win at Spurs last weekend my notes included .............
Tottenham host Bournemouth, who have done incredibly well to haul themselves up to 15th with a three point buffer over the drop zone. They have basically a Championship quality side, with one or two exceptions (maybe just one) , but what they have is fight and togetherness and not all teams at the bottom have that and right now, also some form and self belief and they battered Leicester City 1-0 at the King Power last weekend. They created 2.2 xGF ( felt low on what I witnessed), 19 attempts, 13 ITB, 7 on target with Daniel Iversen in the City goal making six saves and collecting their MOTM plaudits. It was an impressive showing, they might not have beaten much, but what I really liked was the confidence the Cherries showed and they seem likely to have a go today and are expected to create chances. They led Spurs 2-0 at the Vitality Stadium in the reverse fixture, before losing 3-2, they look to have improved subsequently, no, they have improved and something similar is far from unlikely.
West Ham have also had a great two weeks, winning at Fulham, coming from 2-0 down to draw with Arsenal and progressing to a European semi final with a 4-1 demolition of Gent on Thursday. They would also be close to safety with the win, up to 13th and with a game still in hand.
There is much to like about Bournemouth, but they lack the quality of the Hammers and the hosts are still very vulnerable defensively, they have given up 2.3+ xGA in 6/8 starts and an average of 2.06 xGA in their last five at home despite Fulham not showing up. They are better and happier when there is less onus on them to make the running and they are kind of under more pressure today that they were at either Leicester or Spurs. The Irons have finished 6th and 7th in the last two seasons and are in their second straight European semi final and they remain a decent squad, with a touch of class. I feel they would have taken a lot of confidence from what was a joyful win in midweek and favour them to make the short journey home with at least something for their troubles.
You do not score eight goals inside 72 hours without it making confidence levels soar and the four on Sunday were celebrated with no less exultation than those against Gent and the Hammers played some very slick football at times. I am not sure they are a team anyone wants to face right now and West Ham won this fixture 3-2 last season and that was when Liverpool were good! In that game the Irons scored twice from corners and it should have been three as Declan Rice hit the crossbar with a free header from another. They have lost none of that ability as three goals at Bournemouth came from crosses (two from corners) and the players that did a lot of damage in that last h2h game at the London Stadium (especially Fornals and Rice) are in imperious form. Add in that Liverpool still cannot defend a corner, in a 3-1 loss at Lionel Road to the mighty Bees early this year they conceded from four in a row and in a matter of minutes ( two were ruled out by VAR), fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, not sure what four times means, but it isn't good!
Pool have scored 11 goals in their last 230 minutes or so of football, with four from Diego Jota who has finally hauled himself out of the goal scoring doldrums and he and they are perfectly capable of making this a shoot out this evening which feels likely, but with United having the game and fire power to do their share of the damage.
1.75 units "over" 3.5 goals 2.65 asian line.
1.5 units West ham United "over" 1.5 goals 2.85 asian line.
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