EPL Update...........
Nov 04, 2023
Premier League through 10 rounds
| 2023/24 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 26 | WWWW | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | ||
| 2 | Arsenal | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 24 | WXWW | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | ||
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 24 | WWLL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | ||
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 | WWXL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | ||
| 5 | Aston Villa | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 22 | WWXW | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | ||
| 6 | Newcastle United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 17 | XWXW | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | ||
| 7 | Brighton & HA | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 17 | XLXL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 8 | Manchester United | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 15 | LWWL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | ||
| 9 | West Ham United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 | LLXW | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 10 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | WWLX | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | ||
| 11 | Chelsea | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 | LXWW | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||
| 12 | Wolves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 | XWXW | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | ||
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 12 | LLOW | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | ||
| 14 | Fulham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 12 | XLWL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | ||
| 15 | Everton | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 | WLWL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | ||
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | LXOX | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | ||
| 17 | Bournemouth | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 | WLLL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | ||
| 18 | Luton Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 5 | LXLL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | ||
| 19 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 25 | -17 | 4 | LLLW | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | ||
| 20 | Sheffield United | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 29 | -22 | 1 | LLLL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | ||
Quick overview
Almost everyone's idea of the title favourites coming into this season..... City, Arsenal and Liverpool, fill three of the top four spots, the three promoted teams are in the relegation places and most teams are roughly where most casual football fans would have placed them back in August, with the exception of Tottenham and even their most avid supporters, and my daughters are married to two, would have expected them to enter November unbeaten and top of the table.
Only four points separate the top 5, there are only 7 between those in 6th and 16th, but there is already a significant gap at the foot of the table and I have spoken before about how important for all teams, but especially those coming up from the Championship, it is to get some points on board early and also get their head around losing games. Most teams are going to lose a lot of matches in the EPL and that is difficult for teams who have won week after week in the second tier to handle, they are simplynot used to it. In the last five seasons six teams have lost 20 or 21 games and survived and probably all but one of those would have viewed the campaign as a success, and it was! Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United lost 22 games out of 138 between them last season, they have already lost a combined 24! 60% +of the top flight teams come into each season as relegation candidates, even if they finished top 10 the year before, that is the level of competition and how financially powerful the Big 6 and what might now be a 7 or 8 are. Everyone else is in survival first mode and foremost.
xP
I suppose you could argue that these are both "boring" as they are so close, or "interesting" as they are so close!
Man City 21 pts
Arsenal 20
Liverpool 20
Newcastle 20
Tottenham 19
Villa 18
Chelsea 18
Brentford 17
Brighton 16
Everton 16
Man United 13
Palace 12
Forest 11
West Ham 11
Wolves 10
Fulham 9
Luton 9
Bournemouth 7
Burnley 7
Sheffield Utd 4
Just five points separating the top 10.
Chelsea (6 pts), Everton(6), Brentford (4) and Luton (4) are seen as the main underachievers.
Tottenham (7) and Villa (4) as the two who have outperformed their numbers by the most.
Net ITB numbers
Man City +59
Arsenal +47
Villa +37
Liverpool +29
Tottenham +27
Newcastle +22
Brentford +22
Chelsea +20
Brighton +11
Everton +10
Man United +5
Palace -1
Forest -5
Luton -21
West Ham -22
Wolves -29
Fulham -32
Bournemouth -52
Burnley -54
Sheff United -77
Most of you know that it is the ITB numbers that I like best and this table is remarkably similar to how I would rank the 20 teams personally on what they have shown through 10 rounds, which, we have to remember, is only 26% of the season.
I also sent subscribers notes on all 20 teams and previews of seven weekend Premier League games, but that is what they pay the "big money" for, however, you can read two of those write ups below......
Manchester United
In summer I said that I did not see United as Top 4, that they did not score enough goals was an issue which had not really been addressed, at least with a short term solution and that this squad had a soft underbelly and was too ready to capitulate when things did not go their way . In further evidence of that, I produce 3-0 home defeats back to back this week inside 4 days to Man City and Newcastle. Ahead of the first I highlighted how VERY fortunate they were to have even 15 points on board ....
These are their twelve EPL and CL games to date .........
1-0 win , conceded 2.4 XGA to a bottom 6 team
2-0 defeat
3-2 win, trailed 2-0 at home to Forest
3-1 defeat
3-1 defeat at home
4-3 defeat
1-0 win, lost xG
1-0 defeat at home
3-1 defeat at home
2-1 win, trailing entering the 94th minute! Had created nothing until then.
2-1 win, scored late winner against bottom of the table team, lost xG.
1-0 win, opponent missed a last minute penalty, lost xG.
It is not a stretch to say they might have lost all 12, at least 10, regardless of which, even with those wins, it was still their worst start to a season for 34 years, they look lethargic and passive, with no high press which leaves them vulnerable on the counter and down both flanks.
This is a team and head coach in BIG TROUBLE!
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves look about right for 12th-14th in relation to expected and ITB numbers, but anyone who has seen their last four home games Liverpool, Man City, Villa and Newcastle will have been impressed and they were unlucky to "only" take 5 points from four top 6 teams and some of their offensive play has not just been good, but highly inventive and the link up play between Cunha, Neto, Kalajdzic, Silva, Sarabia and Hwang Hee-chan very good. But the lynchpin that held this all together and the jewel in the crown was Pedro Neto, who has an EPL 7 assists this season (no Wolves players has ever had more than 9 in a full season) and you could hear the collective gasp and then sigh from the Wolves faithful when he went down with a clear hamstring injury at the weekend and he will be out until the New Year. I cannot think immediately of a bigger single player loss to any team than Neto to Wolves right now and winning has been hard in his absence . They had just equalised against Newcastle and were well on top, but that all evaporated as he left the field and it is a worrying development going forward.
clubgowi Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck!
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