I wrote in the
results update on Wednesday, that " it "feels" like we are about to go on another strong run". That hasn't happened yet, but we had a small profit on the Europa League games yesterday and took an outright position (see below) and already have wonderful value with that. The vibe is very good going into the weekend and we have six newsletters scheduled over the next three days, which will cost long term subscribers about 8 euros. I have just sent the first of those which extended to a whopping 3,500 + words and that emphasizes what incredible value the newsletter service offers. Always a good time to sign up, but right now might be the best !
Tottenham Hotspur- Benfica (written 13/03)
We backed Benfica to win this competition last year at 25-1+ and they just came up short in the final, losing narrowly to Chelsea, we made money nonetheless, but it was disappointing. Many times we have spoken about the great respect that teams from the Iberian Peninsula show the competition and holding a commanding seven point lead in SuperLiga and with nearest challengers Sporting and Porto meeting on Sunday and Benfica not playing until Monday evening, they can afford to give this their undivided attention. Tottenham will be looking for a reaction, after losing so tamely at Stamford Bridge and will get a couple of key players back tonight, but have the North London derby with Arsenal on Sunday and everyone at the club, management, players and supporters, knows where their priorities lie.
Notes about the visitors and the competition in general from 13 months ago are reproduced below and bear repeating. If they get through this round, I would probably only rate Juventus and possibly Napoli as stronger, but would never even consider the former at current odds and both ( Fiorentina and Porto respectively) are not guaranteed to progress even from this round, likewise Sevilla who have two derby games to battle through. I favour Benfica here over the two legs and their current outright quotes are 2-3 points bigger than I made them, as always in my 100% (no profit margin) book.
Benfica messed up in the Champions League against Olympiakos, but were unfortunate not to qualify from a group containing PSG with ten points and I think that and how close they came last season, will make them hungrier. Odds are significantly lower than last year, but we are a round further on and their domestic position is much stronger, so I see the quote at least as good. Ten of the 14 who played against Chelsea in last year's final are in the squad this evening, big loss was Nemanja Matic who rejoined Chelsea, but they invested heavily (35m euros +) in some impressive young talent , including a trio of Serbian youngsters Ljubomir Fejsa ,Filip Djuricic and Lazar Markovic, who have all make the trip tonight. Djuricic was lined up by Newcastle as a replacement for Cabaye and Chelsea are said to be VERY keen on Markovic, who has done nothing but impress, if you saw their 2-0 defeat of Porto in January, you will remember him.
Prolific and star striker Óscar Cardozo has featured little this season after being plagued by back problems, but has returned to action recently and will be "fresh" for the remainder of the campaign. It is a sign of how many options they have, that he has been little missed, but few teams would not be improved by his addition.Jorge Jesus is a very good coach, his team are very disciplined and both press high and in midfield and Jesus is fantastic at spotting weak links in the opposition, which his players focus on . They break very quickly both from the back and midfield and are strong on both flanks, they have a lot of pace right through the team, even up front ,when Cardozo doesn't play, but other options when he does.
Two bets for me...1.25 units Benfica level ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.
1.5 units Benfica to win the Europa League outright 11.0-12.0 general quote.
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes , Oblak,Siqueira, Garay, Jardel, Sílvio, André Almeida, Steven Vitória ,Luisão, Salvio, Enzo Perez, Gaitán, Sulejmani, Fejsa, Djuricic, Ruben Amorim, André Gomes , Ivan Cavaleiro,Lima, Markovic, Rodrigo ,Cardozo.
Good Luck.
Thursday February 14th 2013
Europa League:
The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.
This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.
There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.
The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..
Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.
Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.
They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that “a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.
