Ludogorets are old favourites of ours and we have milked them in Europe where their record has been incredible, aside from 2015/16 they have played group stage football every year since 2013/14, two Champions Leagues, seven times in the Europa League and once in the Conference. They have won the Bulgarian league 13 seasons in a row, having never won it previously, which is an amazing fact. Ludo always has the same mix with a squad heavy with South American and African talent and they make up 10 of this group, including five Brazilians . Of course, to continue that run, they do not need to make the CL group stage as they will have a second chance in the Europa League, but they won the first leg in Baku 2-1 and will be disappointed not to progress after this evening and Dinamo Zagreb await the winners in the final qualifying round.

 

Qarabag have similarly dominated domestic football in the last decade and have subsequently gained a lot of European experience themselves. Last season they impressed in the Europa League, finishing second behind Leverkusen at the group stage, taking four points from trips to Molde and Hacken, before defeating Braga , who "always" finish top 4 in Portugal and who have more EL experience than almost any team aside from Sevilla, scoring four goals in the away leg in Portugal. Their reward was another two games with Bundesliga champions elect Bayer , they took them close this time, drawing 2-2 in Leverkusen and losing 3-2 at home, leading, rather incredibly, 2-0 in both games, they have goals in them and do not mind playing on the road.

 

The first leg was very open and should have produced more goals, Ludo pressed for a third even after retaking the lead late and are probably not suited to sitting on their lead this evening. Both teams were suspect defensively aerially, but the biggest threat for Ludo in this regard was Caio Vidal who was sent off late and is suspended today, also absent is Bernard Tekpetey who was stretchered off and he has now had surgery on a broken leg. The two wingers are very big losses.

 

Both teams are interesting in Europe and that goes beyond today, but I have more feeling for Qarabag on this occasion, but doubt they will keep a clean sheet and that means two+ goals to progress. They did that and more in Braga and Leverkusen and this is "easier", if not easy. Bonus is that Ludo will not mind conceding twice as long as they ultimately progress.

 

2.25 units Qarabag to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.19 asian line.

 

 

Good luck!