2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Liverpool	33	24	7	2	75	31	+44	79	WWLW	16	13	2	1	34	12	17	11	5	1	41	19
	2		Arsenal	33	18	12	3	61	27	+34	66	WXXW	16	10	5	1	31	13	17	8	7	2	30	14
	3		Nottingham Forest	33	18	6	9	53	39	+14	60	WLLW	16	9	4	3	24	11	17	9	2	6	29	28
	4		Newcastle United	33	18	5	10	62	44	+18	59	LWWW	16	10	2	4	35	19	17	8	3	6	27	25
	5		Manchester City	33	17	7	9	64	42	+22	58	WWOW	16	10	3	3	37	21	17	7	4	6	27	21
	6		Chelsea	33	16	9	8	58	40	+18	57	WXOW	16	9	5	2	30	17	17	7	4	6	28	23
	7		Aston Villa	33	16	9	8	53	47	+6	57	WWWW	17	9	7	1	31	20	16	7	2	7	22	27
	8		Bournemouth	33	13	10	10	52	40	+12	49	OWXL	16	7	3	6	20	14	17	6	7	4	32	26

 

What an odd season for City, but a 10-3-3 record at the Etihad is still third best in the EPL and they are averaging 2.3125 goals as host, which is the most in the top flight.  News of their passing has been greatly exaggerated and at times I have been guilty of a little of that, although this is a group who are, or should be in transition and having a rethink. I do not doubt that off pitch events have been and continue to be a distraction too, but they need to secure a top 4/5 finish and worry about everything else later and as always, let their legal team sort that out, or delay things! 

 

Since the turn of the year they have been 5-1-1 at home, with a 20-8 goal difference, scoring 2+ goals in all except the visit of Liverpool who also inflicted the only defeat in that sequence. City have won their last two games scoring seven goals, albeit in queer fashion, coming from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace 5-2 and scoring twice after the 85th minute to win 2-0 at Everton. In the first of those they created a scarcely believable 12 BC's and another 3 at Goodison Park, so the goals did not come out of turn or from nowhere.

 

City have no distractions now as they only have EPL games to play, Villa have played two extra games already this month,which were the titanic and physically and mentally draining CL ties with PSG and also have an FA Cup semi final at Wembley in four days time. Of course they want to finish top 5 too, but this is a massive club, the biggest in the UK's "second" city and they have not won any silverware since 1996, so the FA Cup is a big deal too. They have a pretty deep squad and have been fortunate with injuries, but they have played 51 games already this season, including 12 in their first Champions League/European Cup campaign for 42 years and it could take a toll over the next month.

 

Their form at Villa Park has been elite, less so on the road where they lost three CL games and seven in the EPL, the most in the top half of the table. They have been especially poor against fellow top teams, with a 0-1-4 record versus top 6 clubs, conceding 2+ goals in all five. We can add in 4-1 defeats to both Tottenham and Palace and they have conceded 2+ goals 11 times away from their beloved home stadium. Then we have their record at the Etihad, none of their players carry all this baggage , but most will be lifting some off the team bus today and Villa have a beyond awful record here of 0-0-10 with a 7-35 goal difference! Eight of those defeats have come by 2+ goals and six by 3+ and the most recent was 12 months ago by a 4-1 scoreline and at the time Villa were better placed in the league. City were too, but the hosts' drop off in home form subsequently has not been as stark as some of us would have believed. I like the home win and "expect" City to score 2-3 goals as a minimum to keep all those trends going.

 

 

Good luck!