Securing a profit ....................
Wimbledon : WTA: Eugenie Bouchard- Petra Kvitova
We backed Petra Kvitova outright on Monday.......
Petra Kvitova did us a big favour when winning this in 2011 and since losing in Round 1 on her first two appearances at the All England Club, her record here is SF-W-QF-QF with a 23-3 record. Two of those losses came against a Serena Williams at the very peak of her game and without perhaps the greatest player of all time baring her way, she could be hunting down her fourth Wimbledon title. Kvitova has not really built on that grand slam success, but she is still #6 in the world and this is the tournament she feels most at home in.
The Czech player withdrew from Eastbourne in her warm up event, but if there were any doubts about her fitness coming in, they were dispelled with her epic three set defeat of Venus Williams on Friday. Make no mistake, that was a throwback and more like the old Venus and she was moving and serving well. maybe just 2-3 current players on tour would have beaten her that on that day and surface.
Kvitova said afterwards:“This is the best match I have played on grass since I won the title, but I was very nervous before the start. " I knew of course that she’s a five-time champion here and loves to play on the Centre Court as much as I do. "I was just a little stronger than her mentally, that’s why I won.”
He thigh was strapped but didn't appear to give her any problems and she has had 72 hours to recover for this week's exertions. Today she plays Shuai Peng, who is solid and good at the net, but Kvitova leads that series 4-0 and should ease through to her 5th staright quarter, where she could meet Wozniacki and then Radwanska in the semis (more of that later), again she has a good record and grass court wins over both.
She seems far and away the most likely to come through the bottom half of the draw and there are a LOT of dangerous players for favourite Maria Sharapova to get through in the top section, not least of which is Sabine Lisicki.
1.75 units Petra Kvitova to win outright 5.0 which is the quote with virtually every bookmaker trading the event.
We have great value with this bet, with most oddsmakers making the Czech player circa 1.70 to beat the young Canadian.
Ahead of Bouchard's semi final defeat of #3 ranked Simona Halep, I wrote ......
Halep won 11 straight games to defeat an injured Sabine Lisicki yesterday, it was either foolhardy, sporting , stupid or brave (pick whichever one you like) for the German to stay on court, but stay she did. However, I would not read too much into that win for the Romanian and we do still have some questions to be answered about her on this surface, despite her doing all that has been asked in the tournament and exceeding expectations time and time again over the last 15 months.
I wrote yesterday....."Halep has not played anyone ranked inside the top 70 yet or faced a real test at these championships, the only big name she has ever met at Wimbledon was Li Na last year and the Chinese superstar was a comfortable winner."
Incredibly, these two have the most grand slam wins of any player this year, with 15 victories each, I wonder what price you could have got about that,at this stage of the season, way back in January !
Given Halep's record and now on the bigger stage, it is wrong to say I have any doubts about her ability, she is also a highly intellegent player and moves as well as anyone. However, I just want to see her beat a major player on grass and until she does, I just have to take her on at big odds, especially against someone who I "know" is headed for #1 .
We discussed Bouchard again yesterday and those notes are directly below, she has the look, game and aura of a champion and odds like this will not come along very often in the future, if at all. I made the 20 yo Canadian a small favourite, so my hands are tied, I have to bet her and bet her big and will probably bet more than the staking suggests. That doesn't mean that you have to, just trying to explain my mindset and that when the odds are wrong and regardless of result today, I strongly feel they are, then I want to bet and do not mind losing, the result is kind of irrelevant, long term they take care of themselves. So, it doesn't worry me, I would rather bet and move on and turn my attention to looking for the next one.
It is not hard to read the notes and know the bets I really like, it is not always reflected in the staking (today is), which is why there are previews , most of the long term subscribers who have been following GOWI -clubgowi and the newsletter for years know and understand this and most have done well over a long period.
I digress....we kind of know where we are with Halep now, the only question is can she beat a top grass court performer on this surface and with current odds, that has already been answered in the affirmative and that, for me, cannot be right, as it is still a "maybe". Also factor in that Bouchard has #1 potential and is improving match upon match and these quotes are "wrong". I take the more aggressive player to win this .
1.75 units Eugenie Bouchard to win 2.60 Pinnacle Sports.... pretty sure you will get matched at similar odds on the exchanges, where there is already good liquidity at 2.58+
Halep did pick up an ankle injury in that match which clearly hampered her movement, but I do not feel it changed the result. The (also) young Romanian ran out of energy and had little left in her "tank" in the second set.
I am in two minds about the match today, I would be very happy taking Kvitova on grass against anyone else in the field, except for possibly Bouchard. We have stuck with the youngster who has landed us some nice bets through the last three slams , we know she is headed to the very top of the game and is a very self possessed , confident individual who is totally committed to the game. She might only be 20yo, but she has been working towards today a long time and after the win over Halep she said : I’m happy to get to my first Grand Slam final. It’s very exciting. It’s what I’ve worked so long for, but it’s not like a surprise to me. I expect good results like this. So for me, I was like, OK, good. It’s a step in the right direction. I get to play in the final. I still have another match, so it’s not a full celebration yet. My job is not done.”
Today will be very interesting, it is raining this morning and the damp conditions might make the much discussed playing surface act a little different, but I do think the fact that Bouchard likes to take the ball early and stands inside the baseline to receive, has a double benefit as she is playing from a more secure footing. Both players sometimes go for too much, too soon, Kvitova can make a lot of errors and sometimes brood on them and 2-3 games can slip very quickly. Bouchard's are more of the "I know I messed up, let's move on" type, she is a quick learner and from her, you often see her best point after her poorest, but at all times refusing to back down.
True champions do not normally take a backwards step and Bouchard could not be a more obvious #1 if she had the word CHAMPION tattooed on her forehead. I make this something like 1.90-2.10 with the edge to Kvitova, however, I am pretty certain that this would be the last time that the Czech player would be favourite in this match up in a slam final and an not totally convinced fully that the scales have not already tipped.
That is kind of beside the point, I do not want to lose on Bouchard, so personally I am taking 2 units Eugenie Bouchard 2.27 Pinnacle Sports, there is 2.20 + available as a general quote.....2.28 on the exchanges.
That basically ensures a 0.75 unit profit if she wins and 5 units if Kvitova triumphs and on this occasion, I am happier taken a lesser profit than I would be risking grumpily watching Bouchard win.
So there is no confusion, this is only as "cover" for the Kvitova bet, as always, the choice is up to you.
I have seen a prop/special bet on this match which I cannot quite believe(!), it is ............ the rest of this match preview is only available to subscribers of the
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Good Luck.
